The Houston Texans will face the Tennessee Titans in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Texans and Titans skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Mason Rudolph, QB
The on-field target share distribution with Mason Rudolph under center is about as split as it can be, and that’s a pain for fantasy managers:
- Calvin Ridley: 23.6%
- Josh Whyle: 25%
- Chig Okonkwo: 23.4%
- Tyjae Spears: 23.4%
It’s encouraging for Rudolph’s future in the NFL, as a backup signal caller who can spread the ball around and execute a plan is exciting to most franchises, but in terms of holding any meaningful value in our game, this profile is not that.
C.J. Stroud, QB
The Texans don’t have any upward mobility this weekend. They are locked into the No. 4 seed, and that means that, if chalk holds, they will draw the Chiefs in the second round. They are going to have a battle on their hands just to get to that point, and they really haven’t looked like a legitimate threat for a while (5-1 start to the season, 4-6 since).
C.J. Stroud was just ordinary in the Week 12 loss to these Titans (he threw for 247 yards with a pair of touchdowns and a pair of interceptions), but it’s difficult to see him playing a full 60 minutes this weekend with the understanding that Houston will be hosting a Wild Card game next week.
When looking forward, be it for DFS purposes this postseason or early 2025 rankings, Stroud’s regression as a field stretcher has to be considered. We’ve seen the Bengals adapt their offense and draw back Ja’Marr Chase’s aDOT in the process — do the Texans try something similar in short order to make their second-year QB more efficient?
Stroud threw 116 deep passes (15+ air yards) as a rookie, averaging 14.5 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in the process. This season, on 122 such passes, Stroud is averaging 11.0 yards per pass with five touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Joe Mixon, RB
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Mixon is active for today's game.
The Ravens were all over Joe Mixon on Christmas Day (nine carries for 26 yards), a disaster for fantasy managers who have used this strong season as a way to vault to the top of their standings.
That makes it three straight games without a touchdown for Mixon, struggles that are highlighted even more by him averaging just 3.0 yards per carry over that stretch (39.8% production under expectation).
The Texans could always opt to manage their veteran back, but it’s not my day to run the team. If we don’t get word that a limited role is likely, I think you’re fine to plug Mixon in as an RB2. He earned a 19.4% target share in the first meeting with the Titans (Week 12) and has recorded multiple red-zone touches in not one, not two, but 11 straight games.
I have my concerns about Mixon for next season, but he’s made it this far. If he’s set to assume his standard role this week, I think you plug him in.
Tony Pollard, RB
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Pollard is active for today's game.
Tony Pollard was battling an ankle injury all of last week and then came down with the flu, a combination of events that prevented him from taking the field in Jacksonville.
His role has been very fantasy-friendly of late (17+ carries or 4+ targets in each of his past five appearances), but with the team not playing for anything and committed to Pollard for a $5.99 million base salary next season, it seems unlikely that they overextend him this weekend if he’s active at all.
Layered on top of the risk that comes with Pollard is the fact that this team is motivated to get an extended look at Tyjae Spears (two more years left on his contract). This situation is a bit cloudy at the moment, but you’ll want to keep tabs — Pollard carried 24 times for 119 yards and a score alongside a 20% target share at Houston in Week 12.
Tyjae Spears, RB
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Spears is inactive for today's game.
Tyjae Spears filled in for Tony Pollard (ankle) last week and was treated like a true bellcow — at least, that is, before he got his bell rung.
Against the Jags, Spears had 23 touches (103 yards) before getting hurt in the third quarter. He opened the work week with his status up in the air with a minor positive lean, while Pollard began set to return to action for what amounts to a meaningless game for all involved.
The Titans are playing it safe, and Spears will be out in Week 18. It makes all the sense in the world to be cautious — they have him on his rookie contract for another two seasons.
With Spears inactive, Pollard can be started if you don’t have any other options.
Nico Collins, WR
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Collins is active
If there is going to be a single receiver to create chaos in the AFC playoffs, Nico Collins would be my pick. It’s likely going to be a difficult road and require plenty of help, but what if things break just right?
What if the Steelers win the AFC North and the Texans get an, at times, iffy Ravens secondary in Round 1? What if they get the Bills in Round 2 and get caught up in a shootout? What if the Chargers shock the Chiefs, and their struggles with athletic receivers are all that separates the Texans with a date from the run-and-gun Lions in New Orleans?
Yes, I think Collins is worth what will be a depressed price in postseason drafts if Pittsburgh wins the North, and those pieces have a chance at falling into place. No, I don’t think we get enough run from him this weekend to play him with the utmost confidence.
Why would Houston play with fire? They’ve already lost two playmaking receivers, and this isn’t exactly a team that has multiple ways to succeed. They rely as heavily on a single RB and a single WR as anyone in the league – I’m projecting nothing more than a casual appearance from the starters in this game.
Collins has cleared 110 air yards in three of his past five games, a role that, if you couldn’t tell, I’m happy to roll the dice on during the postseason.
John Metchie III, WR
ADD.
John Metchie III was the player who saw his stock rise the most in the first game following Tank Dell’s injury – he matched a season-high snap share (72.2%) and earned a 25.8% target share in the loss to the Ravens.
Texans WRs production, Week 17:
- John Metchie III: 72.2% snaps and 9.8 points (14.9 expected)
- Xavier Hutchinson: 72.2% snaps and 4.1 points (6.3 expected)
- Nico Collins: 70.4% snaps and 8.9 points (9.5 expected)
- Robert Woods: 35.2% snaps and 4.1 points (3.2 expected)
I’m in no hurry to roll out Texans this week, as they profile as a vulnerable division champion and need to be at full strength to have a host at winning multiple games this postseason, but if I had to dig deep, Houston’s third-year receiver has my interest as a contrarian play.
Calvin Ridley, WR
Calvin Ridley has been a more stable option this season than I would have ever given him credit for entering the year (eight top-30 finishes), but the low-ceiling portion of things I got right.
Ridley has just one game with 95+ receiving yards, and his 53% catch rate highlights all of the issues we had entering this season. I’m not banking on much scoring equity, but he gave us 14.3 PPR points in the Week 12 meeting. That is roughly in line with what I believe you can expect on Sunday.
That was a Will Levis game, but the Levis/Mason Rudolph stat lines this season are essentially a recreation of the Spiderman meme.
- Levis: 63.7% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 1.0 TD/INT
- Rudolph: 63.5% completion rate, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 1.0 TD/INT
I’d caution against using your valuable time to watch the Titans play football, but sliding Ridley in as a low-end WR2 is perfectly reasonable.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR
The Nick Westbrook-Ikhine profile was always a thin one. The touchdowns were great, but they were essentially his only targets, and we are talking about the 30th-ranked scoring offense in the league.
He has just 82 yards to show for his 140 routes over his past four games and can be firmly left out of your Flex consideration this week. Calvin Ridley remains the top option in this passing game, and Mason Rudolph has taken a liking to Chig Okonkwo when it comes to target volume, leaving NWI without a path to much of anything in terms of projectable opportunity.
Robert Woods, WR
I shared some hope last week that Robert Woods would work himself into a regular role with Tank Dell out, but that went to John Metchie III instead, thus rendering Woods useless at this point.
He’d be a tough sell in a meaningless game anyway, as playing a veteran receiver in a spot like this feels like more risk than reward for a team that is thin at the position as it is. Woods was on the field for just 35.2% of Houston’s snaps a week ago, and at this point in his career, 13 routes aren’t even remotely close to getting my attention.
This passing game is Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz or bust for me moving forward, and I’m not sure either of them will be extended in an impactful way on Sunday.
Chig Okonkwo, TE
Few tight ends come with enough big-play potential to offset a low floor, but Chig Okonkwo is the exception. He has three straight games with at least seven targets, and with Mason Rudolph’s average depth of throw trending up (past three games: 5.4 to 6.3 to 8.8), his athletic profile has a direct path to posting top-10 numbers.
Of course, the floor is low, but isn’t that the case for all but maybe five tight ends? Building lineups means betting on some pretty iffy quarterback play, and while Rudolph certainly qualifies as such, we at least have data points that suggest that he is happy to funnel targets to his mismatch of a tight end.
Okonkwo is currently sitting as my TE11 for this weekend, and I don’t have an issue in going this direction as a punt option in DFS contests.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Tank Dell was lost for the season in Week 16 and over the past two games, Dalton Schultz has posted a 20.9% target rate (2024: 16.6%). A gain like that would have my interest in a big way if we were in the middle of the season and trying to solve a difficult tight end puzzle, but with just one week left and the Texans lacking incentive, I’m not buying into the recent usage uptick.
I’d be surprised if you got a full share of snaps for Schultz this week. Even if you do, we could be looking at a lot of Davis Mills on Sunday. I’m happy to not take on this sort of risk for what I view as very ordinary rewards.