The Houston Texans will face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Texans skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
C.J. Stroud, QB
C.J. Stroud’s passer rating when throwing deep is 42 points lower this season than last. I hoped that early-season trends like this were the result of Nico Collins’ injury, but the second-year QB is struggling to make the plays he consistently gave us last season.
This feels like a grind-it-out game where the running backs are heavily featured and the passing game lacks volume. Stroud hasn’t ranked better than QB14 in a game since September, a trend I don’t see changing in Week 16.
Joe Mixon, RB
Joe Mixon has had a great season, and that is why the fantasy industry held its collective breath as he suffered an ankle injury last week.
Fortunately, he made a quick return to action and, on Monday, DeMeco Ryans doubled down on the health of his star running back, saying that there was nothing to worry about.
Good enough for me.
Mixon has a rushing touchdown or at least five targets in all 11 of his games this season. The Chiefs’ run defense is no joke (fifth best in rush success rate while allowing the second-fewest yards per carry after contact to running backs), but Houston is favored in this spot and should dictate the script.
I’m penciling in for Mixon with as many touches as any running back this week and feel fine in doing so. He deserves to be locked in as a RB1 in all formats, even against a strong front.
Nico Collins, WR
It’s awfully hard to provide viable fantasy numbers in a game where your offense fails to reach 200 total yards, holds the ball for under 27 minutes, and averaged 5.0 yards per pass.
It’s also awfully hard to find many receivers as talented as Nico Collins.
Last week was a mess against the Dolphins, and yet, Collins found paydirt twice, allowing him to post WR2 (or better) numbers for the seventh time in nine games.
It’s fine to fear the Chiefs’ defense. They’re about as good as it gets, but not to the point where you’re considering doing something crazy.
Even in the midst of a great season, Kansas City’s defense has allowed 17+ PPR points to an opposing WR1 five times this season (Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey, and Jakobi Meyers).
Say what you will about C.J. Stroud and his production this season — he’s better than the majority of quarterbacks who fueled the production of those WR1s in this same matchup.
Tank Dell, WR
Tank Dell was remarkable as a rookie, but he’s underwhelmed as a second-year player.
After posting production that was 22% over PPR expectations, Dell sits at 10.6% below what we’d pencil in given his specific usage. Such a dip in quality of target can be overcome by sheer quantity, but that’s not the situation we find ourselves in with this undersized asset (17.5% on-field target share this year after delivering a 23.4% rate in 2023).
Dell has one top-30 finish on his 2024 résumé, and now, with your season on the line, you’d be betting on him to double that total against a defense that ranks second in yards allowed per receiver target.
Dell is an explosive player who is capable of making a play against anyone. Yet, you’re reading this article with the intent to be informed as to which way the numbers are trending and projecting. In that regard, it would be close to irresponsible to play Dell at Arrowhead.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Counting on C.J. Stroud has been more of a battle this season than any of us suspected during the preseason and an ancillary piece like Dalton Schultz is the first to see his stock tank.
Schultz has as many top-20 finishes on his 2024 résumé as Tommy Tremble and fewer than Austin Hooper. You’re not considering either of those names this week, so why treat Houston’s TE1 any differently? With under 35 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games this season, there just isn’t enough of a role available in an offense that isn’t as explosive as we had hoped.
Tucker Kraft’s current profile is what we had penciled in for Schultz this year.
