The Houston Texans‘ RB depth chart looks very different in 2024 with the big-name addition of Joe Mixon highlighting a busy offseason. He joins Dameon Pierce in blue and red, who was benched for the now-New York Giant Devin Singletary in 2023, and another offseason acquisition in Cam Akers.
Who will be useful for fantasy football managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Mixon, Pierce, and Akers in 2024.
Joe Mixon’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 252.1 (202.7 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 964.0
- Rushing Touchdowns: 9.1
- Receptions: 49.5
- Receiving Yards: 363.4
- Receiving Touchdowns: 2.5
The single most valuable thing an NFL franchise can have is a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract. The Texans are aware of that, as the acquisitions of Mixon and Stefon Diggs point to this team looking to win and win big now — the exact mindset a redraft fantasy manager should want when drafting a veteran back.
Houston can get out of the final year of Mixon’s deal, but at the very least, he looks like an unchallenged bellcow for an offense that we all believe will rank among the five most potent in the league as long as C.J. Stroud is on the field over the next two seasons.
Outside of age, what is scaring you? There’s no concern about the trajectory of Houston’s offense, and excuse me if Pierce (zero yards last postseason and last 30-yard touch came in early Nov. 2022) or Dare Ogunbowale (30 years old, career highlight is being used as a placekicker) don’t strike fear into my soul.
Mixon has battled his efficiency concerns. His 4.9 yards per carry in 2018 is proving to be an outlier, as he hasn’t cleared 4.1 in a season since. But until YPC is a stat we’re given points for in the fantasy world, I’m not too worried about it.
The volume appears safe, and the scoring opportunities should be high. Why can’t Mixon compile over 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns for a fourth straight season?
I’m not moving mountains to acquire Mixon, but I have a hard time thinking that, at cost, you lose your league because you paid for his services. He’s being drafted in the same neighborhood as Kenneth Walker III, who’s more talented but has more competition on a lesser offense, and Alvin Kamara, a veteran with his own efficiency concerns.
In the fifth round, Mixon is a fine pick. I find myself landing on Anthony Richardson more often than not in this range, but if your roster construction requires you to consider the RB position, I have no issue with taking the newest Texan.
If you find yourself with a balanced roster through four rounds and don’t want to go with a one-off position (QB/TE), go ahead and grab Mixon. The wide receivers in the coming round are strong (Jayden Reed and Terry McLaurin types), whereas the RB position is flirting with a cliff as you get into the middle rounds.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Dameon Pierce’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 106.7 (88.1 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 585.1
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.6
- Receptions: 18.6
- Receiving Yards: 114.3
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.4
Pierce’s late-summer ADP spike is a prime example of why we need to be careful about overvaluing what we see in the preseason. Pierce played an entire drive (including third downs), and fantasy managers went into a frenzy about how this two-down grinder would suddenly be a three-down back with receiving upside. This bumped Pierce’s ADP up several spots. What followed was an unmitigated disaster for fantasy managers.
Well, I shouldn’t say unmitigated. As someone who drafted Pierce in a league, I can say that picking up Devin Singletary in the middle of the season mitigated the loss. But in terms of Pierce alone, it wasn’t good.
Pierce did not open the season in anything resembling a three-down role. In fact, he played fewer than 50% of the snaps in each of the first two games, and at no point during the season did he even reach a 60% snap share in a single game. He didn’t play a single snap outside of garbage time in the Texans’ final four games.
He averaged 2.9 ypc, and his 3.3 yards per touch and 2.69 yards created per touch were both outside the top 50. A mere 2.1% of Pierce’s carries went for 15+ yards, 49th in the NFL. As for that increased receiving role fantasy managers were hoping for? No such thing. Pierce saw a 3.9% target share.
This season, Pierce poses absolutely no threat to Mixon’s workload. His only value is as Mixon’s handcuff. The problem with handcuffs, in general, is we’re not particularly good at predicting who it will be and what percentage of the starter’s work he would take if the starter went down.
If there is a silver lining for Pierce, it’s that the Texans didn’t add anyone of consequence to their backfield aside from Mixon. Ogunbowale stands to serve as the third-down RB (at least to the extent it isn’t Mixon). But if Mixon were to miss time, it wouldn’t be Ogunbowale in a lead-back role. It would probably be Pierce with Ogunbowale as the clear passing-down back.
Pierce has an RB65 ADP, which puts him right on the border of being drafted in most fantasy leagues, but I have no interest. Pierce is my RB73. The value in a handcuff is the upside he provides as the potential lead back in the starting role. However, we’ve seen what lead-back Pierce looks like, and it’s not pretty.
If Mixon goes down, I fully expect the Texans to elevate or sign someone else. At best, Pierce will be part of a timeshare. At worst, he won’t even get a chance at the job. There are better darts to throw.
– Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
Cam Akers’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 88.9 (65.5 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 341.2
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.2
- Receptions: 23.4
- Receiving Yards: 119.7
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.1
The Texans are on the shortlist when it comes to offenses projected to take the biggest leap in 2024, and getting cheap pieces of that puzzle is appealing. Even as C.J. Stroud was breaking out last season, this team ranked only 19th in pass rate over expectation — it’s clear that they value balance, something that helps the case of a reserve like Akers.
The acquisition of Mixon this offseason is further proof that this team doesn’t believe in Pierce. Ogunbowale is also on this roster, but we’ve yet to see him used as anything more than an auxiliary piece at the NFL level.
We all know the health risks that Akers carries with him will likely prohibit the team from ever giving him bell-cow work, no matter the injury situations ahead of him. That said, if you’re reading Pierce’s situation like I am, Akers could take on a reasonable role should the 28-year-old Mixon get nicked up.
He’s far from a must-roster pick, but in deeper leagues, this is a bet on Houston’s offense and Akers’ current health, which allowed him to produce preseason highlights.