The Houston Texans clinched their playoff spot in Week 16 as winners of the AFC South. However, they enter the AFC playoff bracket as the lowest-ranked division winner and the No. 4 seed. The good news is that they will host the Los Angeles Chargers to open Wild Card Weekend. After that, though, they could be hitting the road if they want to go to Super Bowl 59.
Let’s examine the Texans’ playoff scenarios and potential Divisional Round opponents before determining what paths could lead them to host the AFC Championship Game.
What Are the Houston Texans’ Playoff Scenarios?
Houston heads into Wild Card Weekend with a wide range of potential opponents in the Divisional Round. The Texans could face any of four teams, with only the Denver Broncos (and Los Angeles Chargers) not being a possible outcome for them.
All scenarios and probabilities from here on in will be calculated using the assumption that the Texans have beaten the Chargers. If you want to calculate the likelihood of each scenario happening, including the Chargers’ odds, we have them with a 43.8% chance of winning in Houston.
Additionally, for all scenarios outlined in this article, the key is that the NFL reseeds its teams after every round. When each round of games is over, the lowest remaining seed is paired up to face the highest remaining seed, and the higher seed in every matchup hosts the game.
Based on PFN’s win probabilities, the Texans’ most likely opponent is the Kansas City Chiefs. With both the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills and No. 3 seed Baltimore Ravens favored to win, Houstib would be the lowest remaining seed in the AFC and head to Arrowhead.
There is a 45.2% chance that the Texans play their Divisional Round game in Kansas City. The next most likely outcome based on our win probabilities is a 26.3% chance of playing in Baltimore, with a game in Buffalo at 18.0% and then a game in Houston against the Steelers at 10.5%.
For the Texans to head to Baltimore, the Ravens would need to beat the Steelers, and the Denver Broncos would need to upset the Bills on the road. That would send the No. 7 seed Broncos to Kansas City, with Houston going to Baltimore for a rematch from its Christmas Day mauling by the Ravens.
If the Bills beat the Broncos and the Steelers beat the Ravens, the Texans would head to Buffalo. As the No. 6 seed, the Steelers would go to Kansas City, and Houston, the No. 4 seed, would head to face Buffalo in Highmark Stadium.
The Texans have a small chance of hosting a playoff game in the Divisional Round, but they would need two upsets in the AFC bracket on Wild Card Weekend. If the Steelers beat the Ravens and the Broncos beat the Bills, that would leave the Texans as the second-highest remaining seed. The Broncos would head to Kansas City, and the Texans would host Pittsburgh in NRG Stadium.
Could the Texans Host the AFC Championship Game?
There are a few paths that could see the Texans hosting the AFC Championship Game. All of them require the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens to lose in either the Wild Card Round or the Divisional Round. If the Bills and Ravens both win in Wild Card Weekend, then the Texans would be the lowest remaining seed and would not be able to host the AFC Championship Game.
Therefore, Houston needs at least one of Pittsburgh or Denver to win. Then that team needs to go into Arrowhead and beat the reigning Super Bowl champions. Meanwhile, the Texans would need to then win their Divisional Round game, likely relying on their seventh-ranked defense by PFN’s Defense+ metric. This would leave them as the highest remaining seed in the AFC.
That path isn’t particularly likely, as the Chiefs are currently projected to beat the Broncos around 60% of the time and the Steelers in 65% of simulations. Similarly, the Texans would be underdogs against any of the Bills (28.5%), Ravens (24.3%), or Steelers (49.3%) in the Divisional Round.
By current odds, there is just a 7.3% chance of the Texans making the AFC Championship game after playing the Bills, Ravens, or Steelers, and just a 21% chance of the Steelers or Broncos making it after playing Kansas City.