Sunday is a sad day with it being the end of the regular season, but we have an exciting prime-time matchup on Saturday night between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. What better way to enjoy this pivotal Week 18 matchup than with a Texans vs. Colts same game parlay at +365 odds?
Texans vs. Colts Betting Lines
- Spread
Texans -2.5 - Moneyline
Texans -130, Colts +110 - Total
47.5
Texans vs. Colts Same Game Parlay
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly and you pay for the SGP; misfire and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: One of these stat lines is 2023 Dameon Pierce and the other is that of 2013 Trent Richardson, his first with the Colts. Which is which?
- (a) 145 carries for 416 yards (2.9 ypc) with two TDs
- (b) 157 carries for 458 yards (2.9 ypc) with three TDs
Entering this season, we thought the Texans would look to develop Pierce after an encouraging first season to support rookie C.J. Stroud under center.
That’s the beauty of NFL betting — you aren’t married to preseason takes once the season starts. This offense has put their fate in the hands of Stroud and has been rewarded in doing so. Pierce, on the other hand, has spent the bulk of this season running into the back of his linemen.
Devin Singletary: 2.8 yards/carry before contact
Dameon Pierce: 1.2 yards/carry before contact
It’s been over a month since the last time Pierce had a carry gaining more than five yards. And with just six targets earned over his past nine games, he doesn’t offer the type of versatility to be on the field in this must-win spot.
The Texans had 26 carries for 52 yards when these teams first met, and with Pierce getting a tiny piece of a small pie, I’m willing to fully fade him on the handful of looks he gets.
The Colts rank 26th in time of possession, making volume of plays always a natural concern. When they do have the ball, their run game is pretty clearly their strength with Jonathan Taylor leading their backfield.
MORE: 2023-24 NFL Awards — Betting Favorites Ahead of Week 18
Not only is Gardner Minshew averaging fewer yards per pass than Easton Stick even for the season, he also hasn’t been very accurate. Of the 27 quarterbacks with at least 250 pass attempts for the season, only three have an on-target rate shy of 65% …
27. Kenny Pickett — 63.1%
26. Gardner Minshew — 63.1%
25. Josh Dobbs — 64.8%
With limited efficiency penciled in, Minshew would need strong volume to clear his projection, something that is simply unlikely (no more than 20 completions in three straight).
I’m not sure Minshew is a great option in any matchup, and this specific spot isn’t as advantageous as you might assume. Outside of getting Joe Flacco’d, the Texans have had two bad defensive quarters since mid-November.
- Q3 at Jets: 14 points allowed
- Q4 at Jets: 16 points allowed
With those two quarters and the Flacco experience, the Texans have allowed just 76 points in their past 22 quarters. With the Colts scoring just 20.7 points per game over their past seven, and us counting on Minshew struggling with efficiency, this Indianapolis offense isn’t set to thrive (I bought some safety with the team total).
Trivia Answer: The (a) stat line is that of Dameon Pierce this season with (b) being Trent Richardson in 2013.
Same Game Parlay Pick: Pierce under 14.5 rush yards, Minshew under 240.5 pass yards, Colts under 24.5 points
Odds: +365 (at DraftKings)
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