Going into the season, not many people expected this Week 18 matchup between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts to have major playoff implications. While both teams are still alive in the AFC South division race, it’s more likely that the winner of this game secures a Wild Card spot.
In such an important game, the Texans vs. Colts betting odds indicate that this matchup is nearly a toss-up, but who should you be betting on? Let’s dive into our Texans vs. Colts predictions and best bets.
Texans vs. Colts Betting Lines
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- Spread
Texans -2.5 - Moneyline
Texans -130, Colts +110 - Total
47.5
Texans vs. Colts Predictions and Expert Picks
Bearman: Unlike the first game on Saturday, this one is for everything. The winner is in; the loser is out. And if Jacksonville loses on Sunday, this is for the division.
I’ve been on the Colts Express all season, and with this one being at home, I’m staying on Indy. The Colts have been a surprise all season and finish it off with a playoff berth and maybe a division title.
Pick: Colts ML (+102 at DraftKings)
Blewis: The correct team is now favored in this matchup after the Colts opened a short favorite.
By point differential and DVOA, the Texans have been a far better team than the Colts this season. Indianapolis has been overachieving all season long, but I think that comes to an end, even at home, in this Week 18 matchup.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
The only concern here in taking the Texans is they’re a much worse team on the road than at home with C.J. Stroud under center — 2-4 compared to 6-2 in Houston — but that’s not scaring me off enough from taking the better team.
Pick: Texans ML (-116 at FanDuel)
Soppe: Entering this season, we thought the Texans would look to develop Dameon Pierce after an encouraging first season to support Stroud under center.
That’s the beauty of NFL betting — you aren’t married to preseason takes once the season starts. This offense has put their fate in the hands of Stroud and been rewarded in doing so. Pierce, on the other hand, has spent the bulk of this season running into the back of his linemen.
- Devin Singletary: 2.8 yards/carry before contact
- Dameon Pierce: 1.2
It’s been over a month since the last time Pierce had a carry gaining more than five yards, and with just six targets earned over his past nine games, he doesn’t offer the type of versatility that demands he be on the field in this must-win spot.
The Texans had 26 carries for 52 yards when these teams first met, and with Pierce getting a tiny piece of a small pie, I’m willing to fully fade him on the handful of looks he gets.
Pick: Dameon Pierce under 13.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: The Colts rank 26th in time of possession, making play volume always a natural concern. When they do have the ball, their run game is pretty clearly their strength, with Jonathan Taylor leading their backfield.
Gardner Minshew is averaging fewer yards per pass than Easton Stick this season, and the deeper dive metrics support those struggles. There are 27 quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts for the season, and only three of them have an on-target rate shy of 65% (minimum 250 attempts) …
27. Kenny Pickett – 63.1%
26. Gardner Minshew – 63.1%
25. Josh Dobbs – 64.8%
With limited efficiency penciled in, Minshew would need strong volume to clear his projection, something that is simply not likely (no more than 20 completions in three straight).
Pick: Gardner Minshew under 239.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
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