The Kansas City Chiefs will host a playoff game for the ninth postseason in a row when the Houston Texans come to town looking to break their Divisional Round curse. Last year, we saw a game played in sub-zero temperatures in Arrowhead when the Chiefs hosted the Miami Dolphins.
It is set to be chilly again in Kansas City for the Divisional Round clash with the Texans, but will temperatures be as low as last year, and how might the forecasted wind impact the game?
What is the Weather Forecast for the Texans vs. Chiefs Clash?
The weather forecast is from the National Weather Service and is correct as of 7 am ET on Saturday, January 18. All data regarding the impact of weather conditions are from TruMedia.
- Temperature: Low 20s, dropping throughout the game
- Precipitation: <10% projected throughout the game
- Wind: 13 mph northerly, with gusts up to 21 mph
The good news for both teams is that temperatures are not forecasted to be as low as last year, but it will still be fairly cold. The temperature will be around 5-10 Fahrenheit below freezing, but it is going to feel a lot colder. With sustained winds over 10 mph and gusts over 20 mph, the temperature is going to feel close to 10 Fahrenheit during the game.
Temperatures below 30 Fahrenheit do tend to impact the outcome of the game. Over the past decade, the average points scored in games played at 30 Fahrenheit or above is 45.71.
Meanwhile, an average of 41.13 points has been scored in 53 games played in temperatures between 20 and 30 Fahrenheit, and an average of 39.68 points has been scored in 25 games played with a temperature between 10 and 20 Fahrenheit.
We then see a drop in fantasy output in those games, with an average drop of around 10% when the temperature falls to between 10 and 30 Fahrenheit. All of that drop-off comes in the passing game, with the run game seeing similar outputs in terms of fantasy points regardless of the temperatures.
While sustained wind speeds of 10-13 mph and gusts over 20 mph should not be dismissed, they do not significantly increase the more general impact of the cold temperatures. The main impact comes on the kicking game, where we see field goal success rates on kicks over 50 yards plummet to below 50%, but from inside of 50, there is little notable impact.
The ultimate takeaway here is that this game is likely to be slightly lower scoring than a game played in warmer temperatures. Given this is already projected to be a defensive battle, with the lowest total of the week, that would make you lean towards not loading your DFS roster with too many players from this game.
With the later game on Saturday being played in a dome, any single-game DFS slates should lean heavily on that game. Even the run game is a tough sell in this one, with two very good defenses against the run matching up.
However, there is the potential for snow in both Lincoln Financial Field and Highmark Stadium on Sunday. Therefore, anyone playing full-weekend DFS slates should consider leaning heavily on Saturday’s games when setting lineups, with these conditions ranking second for the weekend behind only Saturday Night Football being played in the dome.
