The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs will face off in a Week 16 matchup that will go a long way toward deciding seeding for both teams in the NFL playoffs. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 PM ET.
We’re previewing the game with trends, insights, stats, and Pro Football Network’s proprietary metrics. Let’s dive in!
Texans-Chiefs QB Preview
Here at Pro Football Network, we have created our own Quarterback+ (QB+) metric, which weighs statistics we value highly and then uses them to evaluate a quarterback across the current season.
Our metric uses numbers that are fully available through 2019, so that’s where the historical context comes from. All data referenced is relative to either the current season or in comparison to stats dating back to 2000 for most or 2019 for pressure-related data.
We’re molding stats that include success rates when pressured, third-down conversion rate, and pocket production. The added wrinkle in this PFN Insight is quantifying “clutch.”
Defining “clutch” performance is an imperfect science. In this case, we’ve used timeliness-based stats to account for score and situation.
For all other QB grades, head over to our 2024 NFL QB Rankings.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Season QB+ Grade: D+ (26th overall)
It’s now 10 straight games without C.J. Stroud grading out above a C. Over the last four weeks, Stroud ranks 31st among 33 qualified quarterbacks, with the Houston Texans riding their defense to clinch the division in Week 15.
This week alone, Stroud ranked 27th when playing from a clean pocket (-0.1 EPA/DB) and finished with 4.0 nYPA (ranked 31st) and 2.6 YAC/Cp (32nd).
Stroud’s season numbers are not as bad as that, ranking closer to the middle of the pack in many statistics. But he’s excelled at very little, with a -0.02 EPA/DB (24th), a 34.9% third-down conversion rate (25th), and a 6.3 nYPA (22nd).
The level of Stroud’s play this season should be a major concern for Houston heading into the playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Season QB+ Grade: B- (12th overall)
Week 15 continued a run of underwhelming performances from Patrick Mahomes. He turned it on in a couple of key clutch moments — especially at the end of the first half — to wrestle the game into the Kansas City Chiefs’ control. However, he ranked in the bottom half of qualified starters in overall EPA (-0.14), nYPA (4.2), and EPA/DB from either a clean pocket (-0.03) or when pressured (-0.38).
This whole season has been somewhat weird for Mahomes, who has posted a similar QB+ over the last two seasons. However, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year and are well on the way to clinching the top seed in the AFC, so it is hard to complain too much. When you watch the games, it is clear Mahomes is not playing to the level from earlier in his career, and it reflects in the Chiefs’ unconvincing wins they have strung together.
The biggest concern in Mahomes’ numbers this season has been a 0.24 EPA/DB from a clean pocket, which ranks 18th in football. The other numbers are good without being special, and his 11 interceptions are among the worst in the league. He has relied on a lot of help after the catch, ranking eighth in YAC/Cp at 5.8, but it seems to be working in key spots with a 47.9% third-down conversion rate.
Mahomes’ ankle injury is certainly a concern for Kansas City, but it would be a bigger concern if he was playing at the level we saw in his MVP seasons and the team was only barely winning. The way this team is set up, Carson Wentz merely has to be league-average, and this team should still have a chance to win two of their final three games.
Texans-Chiefs Defense Rankings
PFN’s defense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, sack percentage, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
For all other defense rankings, head over to our 2024 NFL Defense Rankings.
Houston Texans
Season DEF+ Grade: B (4th overall)
The Houston Texans move into the top five in this week’s rankings after overcoming another subpar offensive game to clinch to AFC South in a win over the Miami Dolphins.
Houston’s 82.4 grade (B-) was its fourth-best in a game this season and seventh-best by any defense in Week 15. The Texans had their second-best game of the season in both EPA per dropback (0.23) and yards per play allowed (3.6). In both instances, only the Week 2 win over Chicago represented a better performance in those categories.
Houston has managed to generate several negative plays, which drives some of this ranking. Only the Steelers have more takeaways than the Texans (28), who also rank fourth in sack rate (8.7%).
Defense+ tamps down the impact of these “splash plays” since they tend to be less reliable over time, but Houston does back that up with terrific down-to-down consistency. The Texans rank first in pass success rate (61.0%) and fourth in rushing success rate (64.9%), indicating that they’re also able to stack positive defensive plays on a consistent basis.
Having finished 24th in 2022 the year prior to DeMeco Ryans’ arrival, Houston finished 12th last year and has climbed inside the top five so far this season. With the offense regressing significantly in C.J. Stroud’s sophomore season, the Texans’ defense is the unit that gives Houston the best hope of winning a playoff game for the second straight year.
Kansas City Chiefs
Season DEF+ Grade: C+ (10th overall)
For much of the 2024 season, the Chiefs’ defensive output didn’t match its reputation. But after dominating a hapless Browns offense in Week 15, Steve Spagnuolo’s unit is once again in the top 10.
Kansas City posted an 81.7 (B-) grade vs. Cleveland, its second-best game all season behind the first meeting with the Chargers in Week 4. The Chiefs generated six turnovers after recording just three in their prior seven games combined. As a result, Kansas City generated the highest defensive EPA per dropback (0.59) of any team in Week 15.
Obviously, that type of splash production isn’t sustainable (especially with no more games remaining against Jameis Winston). However, even with the flurry of takeaways, the Chiefs still rank just 15th in turnover percentage for the year.
Kansas City’s greatest defensive strength this season has been its run defense. The Chiefs rank fifth in rush EPA per play (0.12), a trait that could come in handy against the Ravens, Bills, and Steelers in the playoffs.
However, the Chiefs will hope their pass rush vs. the Browns is also a sign of things to come. Kansas City posted its second-best sack rate of the season (12.8%) despite a middling non-blitz pressure rate (32.1%, which ranked 19th in Week 15).
This represented a break from the Chiefs’ usual ability to bring down the quarterback. KC is below average in finishing pressures with sacks, ranking 21st in pressure-to-sack conversion rate (19.8%) this season.
Last year, the Chiefs were the second-best defense (24.9%) in this category. With largely the same group of pass rushers now that Charles Omenihu is back in the lineup, perhaps positive regression can help Kansas City maintain this top-10 ranking.
Texans-Chiefs Offense Rankings
PFN’s offense rankings combine statistics such as yards per play, points per drive, turnover percentage, success rate against the run and pass, third-down conversion rate, red-zone efficiency, pressure percentage when not blitzing, and various expected points added (EPA) measures against both the run and pass. These are then weighted accordingly to produce our rankings for each season.
For all other offense rankings, head over to our Week 16 Offense Rankings.
Houston Texans
Season OFF+ Grade: D (25th overall)
The C.J. Stroud brand has quickly become a safe offense, and with the league’s 10th-lowest turnover rate, that much has remained. For the season, Houston allows sacks at the eighth-highest rate, a flaw that caps its upside, especially with the receiver injuries that have limited the explosive nature of the offense.
With Joe Mixon running as well as he ever has, the hope is that Houston hits its stride as the weather turns and finishes the year as an above-average unit. This is a team that, for my money, has more upside than any team sitting in the bottom 10 of these rankings, and I’m not sure it’s close.
That said, if Stroud isn’t producing splash plays, the upward mobility that this roster has access to won’t be apparent.
Kansas City Chiefs
Season OFF+ Grade: C+ (11th overall)
The Kansas City Chiefs are the target of more criticism than praise because they aren’t as explosive as our eyes want them to be. But championships aren’t won through highlight shows.
The Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes tandem has KC’s offense picking up third downs at the NFL’s highest rate while ranking fourth in pass success rate, a ranking that will surprise most.
Of course, this fragile offense could see its numbers regress significantly should the team elect to take a cautious approach with Mahomes nursing an injury after Week 15.
Carson Wentz is a capable backup, but his track record suggests that Kansas City’s offense would be much more likely to trend closer to league average than top 10 should he be in the saddle for a few games down the stretch.
Texans-Chiefs Week 16 Power Rankings
To limit subjectivity from our power rankings, we have devised our PR+ metric, which combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, our special teams ranking, and a level of correction for the teams’ strength of schedule and win-loss record (among other things). We also take injuries and other factors surrounding teams into account.
For more on the other teams in the league, head over to our Week 16 NFL Power Rankings.
6. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs defeated the Browns on Sunday, but the big takeaway from this game was the ankle injury that quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered in this contest. After the game, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid confirmed that Mahomes’ ankle isn’t broken, just sore.
However, the team is currently considering Mahomes day-to-day, so it remains to be seen if he’ll be available to play next Saturday when the Chiefs take on the Texans.
Carson Wentz will start under center as long as Mahomes is sidelined, and this injury could have an impact on the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Fortunately for the Chiefs, they have already clinched their division and currently have a 76.7% chance of landing the top seed.
Despite having the NFL’s best record, PFN’s model isn’t particularly high on the Chiefs due to their weak schedule to this point and mediocre Offense+, Defense+, and Special Teams+ rankings.
15. Houston Texans
In Week 15, the Texans defeated the Dolphins, 20-12, improving to 9-5. C.J. Stroud completed 18 of 26 passes for 131 yards and two touchdowns (both to Nico Collins). However, it was Houston’s defense that did a lot of the heavy lifting, picking off Tua Tagovailoa three times and forcing two fumbles (one recovered).
With this win and the Colts’ loss to the Broncos, Houston clinched the AFC South for the eighth time in franchise history. Houston’s 9-5 record feels like a product of a fairly easy schedule to this point, but things get a lot tougher over the next two weeks as they’ll face the Chiefs and Ravens. This is a great opportunity for the Texans to prove themselves and gain some confidence entering the playoffs.
