Some might say the Kansas City’s quest for NFL history starts tomorrow in their upcoming divisional-round matchup with the Houston Texans – but real ones have been watching this thing from the beginning. Mahomes and the three-peat? This run has been a long time in the making.
Hate it or love it, I can see a run when it’s happening, and when it comes to betting, if there’s anything I’ve learned – it’s to latch on and hold on tight. All aboard the Playoff-Patrick train – let’s dive in.
Remember – for lines above -150, we generally don’t take these straight up (odds are too high), but we like to mix these into two- or three-leg parlays. Also, in the same light, it’s worth noting that if you like several of these lines, it could be worth teasing them down a bit before combining them if you’re building a parlay.
Our Favorite Player Props and Game Lines
Patrick Mahomes, 2+ Passing TDs (-160)
This might be my favorite bet of the weekend – so I’m leading off the article with it. I’m keeping this simple: Although he finished the regular season with a No. 10 ranking (84.4) and B+ grade in PFN’s QB+ metric, Mahomes is a beast in the playoffs. In 18 playoff games, he’s 15-3 with a 41:8 TD:INT. Some simple math tells me that’s an average of 2.25+ TD’s per game – and that, my friends, is a hit.
Especially given the fact that Mahomes and the Chiefs have had two weeks to get healthy for this game (Andy Reid off a bye…), KC’s offense was top 10 in PFN’s OFF+ numbers all season long before punting in Week 18 – and I like them to continue that trend vs. the Texans.
Travis Kelce, Anytime TD (+150)
When Mahomes starts rolling, Kelce rolls too – and when the playoffs come around, that’s when this elite duo shines the brightest. Again – I’m keeping this one simple, and after reading off these stats, I may sprinkle a bit more on Kelce props:
- Kelce has 70+ receiving yards in 13 consecutive playoff games (longest streak in NFL history)
- Kelce and Mahomes have connected on 17 TDs in their playoff careers, also the most in NFL history
According to Mahomes, the greats “step up in the playoffs,” and that’s exactly what we expect from both players this weekend.
C.J. Stroud, Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Mahomes’ quote rang true for another player last week; Texans QB C.J. Stroud. In their Wild Card win over the Chargers, Stroud, who finished the regular season ranked only No. 27 (67.8) with a D+ grade in PFN’s QB+ metric, stepped up in a big way, rushing six times for 42 yards. This paid massive dividends for the Texans’ offense, who were able to control the tempo of the game on the ground with Stroud and Joe Mixon.
I would understand if this came off as reactionary based on his performance last week, but Stroud has actually crossed this mark in seven of his last 13 games, showing that he can and will run when needed.
With the Chiefs boasting one of the top defenses in the league, I think the Texans (and Stroud specifically) will have to use everything in their arsenal to score in this game. That includes a few extra rushing attempts for the star QB, similar to last week’s game.
Marquise Brown, O42.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I think Hollywood Brown is about to make a lot of money after his next three games.
After missing most of the KC’s 2024 regular-season campaign, Brown returned for Week 16 and 17. In his first two games back, he was targeted on over 45% of his routes. Brown only played 34% of the snaps in those games, and even though his target share might shrink, his snap share should grow.
Mahomes is a master at spreading the ball around – but Brown had 4+ catches in both of his first two games back, and over 45 yards in each. Now – we factor in a nice, long, Chiefs break to scheme and get healthy?
Hollywood might be a dark horse for unsung hero in the Chiefs’ playoff run.
Same Game Parlay (+188)
Patrick Mahomes 2+ Passing TDs
Travis Kelce, 50+ Receiving Yards
Chiefs -2.5, Alternate Spread
When the playoffs roll around, I roll with Mahomes and Kelce. This week is no different. When it comes to safety, those two are as consistent as it gets. I like the Chiefs in this one, although I’m giving the Texans a bit of credit here with the super-tease. Let’s tie these three together, knock out the first two legs in the first half, and let the Chiefs bring us home to victory.
Note: All lines are from DraftKings and are taken at the time the article was published. Odds are subject to change after the article is published.
