As the most experienced player in the New York Jets’ backfield, RB Tevin Coleman could see a sizable amount of opportunities in 2021. However, can Coleman turn that workload into a productive season, or does his fantasy football outlook suggest looking for better options at his current ADP?
Tevin Coleman’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The 2020 NFL season was one that Coleman would like to forget. He appeared in just eight games (one start) with San Francisco due to injuries — a sprained knee and shoulder issue. Coleman recorded 28 carries for 53 yards (both career lows) and 4 catches for 34 yards. For fantasy, he was the RB124, scoring just 10.7 points all season.
A free agent in the offseason, Coleman reunited with HC Robert Saleh (49ers) and OC Mike LaFleur, who coached him with the Falcons in 2015-2016. In four years in Atlanta, Coleman totaled 370 carries for 1,509 yards and 15 touchdowns. Furthermore, he added 58 receptions for 649 yards and 4 scores. Coleman even had some decent years for fantasy with the Falcons. From 2016-2018, he finished as the RB19, RB21, and RB19 while playing 43% of the snaps.
The familiarity with LaFleur’s offense should give Coleman the upper hand, especially early on in the season. That is something Coleman might need if he is going to maintain a sizable workload.
While the Jets have Josh Adams, Ty Johnson, and La’Mical Perine, his biggest competition comes from Michael Carter out of UNC. The Jets have not been able to stop raving about the rookie since his selection at pick No. 107. His skill set is perfect for the wide-zone rushing system New York will run in 2021.
Although Coleman has the background with the staff, I believe Carter ends up as the lead back of the committee. It’s a matter of when not if. Coleman’s best shot at fantasy relevancy will come early in the season as the rookie gets his legs underneath him. From that point on, we likely see a shift in the workload, with Coleman’s fantasy outlook reducing by the week.
Fantasy projection
Deciphering a fantasy outlook for Coleman is one thing. Making the projections for a team with a brand new offense and rookie head coach is an entirely different matter.
I will say this — the Jets will be a better team in 2021. Sure, that is a low bar to cross, but it is a start. I like a lot of the moves they made this offseason. The defense was a significant focus, along with upgrading the offensive line by selecting the versatile Alijah Vera-Tucker. The most important addition came via subtraction when they moved on from Adam Gase. He went from being an NFL head coach to an offensive coordinator for a high school football team.
Because of this, we likely see a more competitive team overall than the one that averaged just 57.2 plays (31st), 279.9 yards (32nd), and 15.2 points per game (32nd).
While New York’s backfield is not as talented as the 49ers’ backfield with Raheem Mostert (and even Jeff Wilson), Coleman likely will end up as the RB2 on the depth chart behind Carter. The rookie could land the RB1 position right out of camp should he continue to look the part of a starting-caliber athlete.
Although the Jets will improve, this is not a backfield that is overly conducive to a committee approach for fantasy, given an overall lack of scoring chances. With Carter projected to be the receiving back, this hurts Coleman’s outlook even more.
Early projections have Coleman around 115-125 carries for 460-480 yards and 3 touchdowns while adding 15 receptions for close to 110 yards.
Tevin Coleman’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Coleman currently has an ADP of 175.8 in half PPR formats. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Coleman has a 174.14 ADP. His ADP on Fleaflicker is slightly higher at 166.
Should you draft Coleman in 2021 for fantasy?
Coleman has an opportunity to have some fantasy value in 2021, although it may be fleeting. The further into the season, the higher the likelihood Carter passes him in the pecking order. The Jets do have the fourth-highest percentage of vacated carries heading into 2021 at 54.2% (238), including 35.7% of the carries inside the five-yard line. So, the path to touches is there from the start, and I would expect to see the team be more balanced this year due to having a rookie QB in Zach Wilson.
As a late-round selection, there is value in Coleman early on. Still, he is more likely to end up on your waivers than in your starting roster come Week 8. But given his low ADP, there is little risk in his selection. It is worth drafting Coleman until we see how the Jets plan to distribute carries amongst the backs and then reevaluate the values of all the RBs.