The Washington Commanders offense has thrown the ball more than any other team in the NFL through the first 12 games of the 2023 season but has failed to produce a top 20 fantasy WR this season.
With no definitive alpha in the WR room this season, should you start Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, or Curtis Samuel in your fantasy football lineup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13? Let’s take a closer look.
Should You Start Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, or Curtis Samuel This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that McLaurin is the player to start. His projected 13 points include a projection of 66 receiving yards and four receptions. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the consensus projection for Dotson (9.2 points) and Samuel (9.3 points).
When you remove the names and simply look at every player’s per-game averages, you can see all of these WRs are strikingly similar in 2023.
WR Production Per-Game Averages in 2023
- Player 1
- Targets:6
- Receptions: 4
- Receiving Yards: 40
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.1
- Player 2
- Targets: 8
- Receptions: 5
- Receiving Yards: 58
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.8
- Player 3
- Targets: 6
- Receptions: 4
- Receiving Yards: 36
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 9.1
Can you guess which player is which based on the numbers above?
If you guessed Samuel (1), McLaurin (2), and Dotson (3), then you are correct! QB Sam Howell is spreading the ball around a lot during the 2023 season, which has all three players as serviceable fantasy options at WR in PPR formats but has significantly capped the fantasy ceiling of each player, too.
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Need proof? Here is a quick glance at the high-scoring fantasy receiver in Washington through their first 12 games of the season.
Highest Scoring Commanders WR in PPR Formats
- Week 1: Curtis Samuel
- Week 2: Terry McLaurin
- Week 3: Terry McLaurin
- Week 4: Terry McLaurin
- Week 5: Curtis Samuel
- Week 6: (Tie) Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel
- Week 7: Terry McLaurin
- Week 8: Jahan Dotson
- Week 9: Jahan Dotson
- Week 10: Dyami Brown
- Week 11: Jahan Dotson
- Week 12: Curtis Samuel
Despite the three-headed monster the Commanders have at WR, McLaurin does have a slight edge in most statistical categories — targets, receptions, and receiving yards — this season. Samuel has been the satellite/hybrid player for the Washington offense, which has given him a small fantasy boost with occasional touch in the running game this season.
If anyone has felt like the odd man out this season, it would be the talented second-year wideout Dotson, but even he has started to see his role expand over the last five games.
These numbers are nice and all, but they all have roles within this new offensive scheme that can help project their potential involvement in the passing game on a weekly basis.
McLaurin operates mostly on the outside, while Dotson and Samuel both have seen over 240 snaps from the slot this season. The Miami Dolphins defense has been vastly improved since CB Jalen Ramsey entered the starting lineup, evident by the fact the defense’s allowed points per game has dropped 10 points since his return.
If the Commanders defense continues to struggle against the best offenses in the league, then Washington will once again be forced to go to the air to stay competitive.
Ramsey and fellow starting CB Xavien Howard could make life a bit more difficult for McLaurin on the outside, which has me wanting to go with Dotson as my highest-ranked fantasy WR for the Commanders this week, followed by McLaurin and then Samuel.
All are top-40 plays this week at the WR position.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!