After exiting Week 14 with a concussion, Terry McLaurin is questionable heading into Week 15. Since he’s Washington’s No. 1 receiver, McLaurin’s absence could have dramatic implications on his teammates’ fantasy football performances. What might we expect from McLaurin if he clears the concussion protocol in time for this weekend’s game, and if he misses Week 15, what might we expect from Cam Sims, DeAndre Carter, Curtis Samuel, and Adam Humphries?
Terry McLaurin’s fantasy outlook
I raised red flags about McLaurin starting more than a month ago in the PFN fantasy newsletter and on the “In the Mood” fantasy podcast.
The improving health of Antonio Gibson, the return of injured receivers like Samuel, and the mixed play of Taylor Heinicke generated concern about McLaurin’s fantasy outlook. He became a deceptively risky fantasy starter rather than the normal “set-him-and-forget-him” receiver.
McLaurin’s Week 14 concussion followed a string of disappointing performances for all the reasons highlighted above. He last reached double-digit fantasy points back in Week 11. Additionally, despite averaging 9.9 targets per game through Week 7, he’s averaged only 6.3 since. Single-digit outputs in Weeks 5, 6, and 8 were not isolated occurrences; they were signs of things to come.
Presently the WR23, McLaurin is questionable to play in Week 15. Even if he does return, he will remain a boom-bust option — clearly the team’s best receiver, but not the trustworthy fantasy starter he once was.
Adam Humphries safest option if McLaurin sits Week 15
If you want safe, Humphries is your guy. He enjoyed a 62% offensive snap share last weekend, which was his highest rate since Week 8. He also earned a healthy 7 targets.
Humphries has never been a scoring machine, and he has only two 100-yard days across 92 NFL games. But historically, he’s been a decent bet for WR4 production when starting. So, if you’re in a pinch, he’ll give you a solid floor and a shot at a WR2/3 ceiling.
Curtis Samuel has the most upside amongst remaining Washington WRs
For a little more boom-bust, look to Sims — though first he’ll need to be removed from the COVID list. After topping out at a 37% offensive snap share in Week 3, his usage spiked to 59% in Week 14. Again, this is because McLaurin was sidelined. But if that happens again this weekend, we can imagine Sims earning another long look. Undrafted out of the University of Alabama, Sims has never caught more than 5 passes in a contest and has eclipsed 100 yards only once. Yet, he flashed sporadically last season and would give risk-embracing managers a nice dart throw when activated.
For a while this season, Carter had stepped into the No. 2 receiver role. His three consecutive games with a touchdown in Weeks 8-11 led some fantasy managers to chase his points — only to find that fantasy often isn’t that easy. At 28 years old, Carter is on his fourth NFL team in four seasons. His snap rate has been at or above 59% for six straight games. However, with 7 catches for 60 scoreless yards in his last three outings, Carter cannot be viewed as more than a desperation flyer.
Finally, Samuel. What can be said? Coming off an impressive 77-851-3 receiving line in 2020 playing behind DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, it was easy to see how Samuel could slide into the No. 2 job in Washington and build off his career-high numbers.
Instead, a groin injury has hobbled him for much of 2021. He’s been slow to reacclimate since returning in Week 12, compiling only 2 receptions for 8 yards. That’s not a typo. A 2-8-0 receiving line in three games. Samuel clearly has the most upside among this foursome. He also obviously has the lowest floor.