The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will McLaurin continue to outperform his situation, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Terry McLaurin’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
McLaurin is one of the best receivers in the NFL, and I don’t see how it is up for debate at this point because all he has done is outperform a situation that would make lesser receivers fold.
2022 was just another example. With Carson Wentz under center, McLaurin had a 16.3% target share, a 26.4% air-yard share, and 1.52 yards per route run as the WR33 (11.1 PPR/game). Then, in stepped Taylor Heinicke, who saved McLaurin’s season.
With Wentz on the sideline due to a finger injury, McLaurin had a 29.8% target share, a 44% air-yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run. Throw in a 28% target-per-route-run rate, and McLaurin averaged 5.4 receptions, 80.2 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns on 8.11 targets for 15.46 PPR points per game (WR15).
Finishing 19th overall, McLaurin posted his third-straight 1,000-yard season with 1,191 yards on 77 of 120 receiving and five touchdowns. He only has five drops over the last two seasons, for crying out loud.
Oh, and by the way, despite playing with 10 QBs under three different head coaches, two OCs, and three team names, McLaurin is one of six WRs to have four straight 900-yard seasons since 2019 and is behind only A.J. Brown (4,369) in receiving yards from the 2019 class with 4,241. That’s ahead of DK Metcalf (4,192), Deebo Samuel (3,988), and Diontae Johnson (3,707).
That’s why I am not overly worried about Sam Howell coming in – now that he’s been declared the Week 1 starter – because it’s not like McLaurin only succeeded with the best of the best.
There will unquestionably be ups and downs with Howell. He is as unproven as it gets and didn’t see any action until Week 18. But I’d counter and say no one is better at winning poorly thrown targets with a my-ball mentality than McLaurin. He is open when he has a DB draped over him.
He is a fringe top-10 receiver in the NFL, even if that doesn’t match his fantasy football value.
Expect there to be several iterations between now and the start of the season, but my current projections have McLaurin catching around 75 of 120+ targets for approximately 1,000-1,100 receiving yards with 4-5 TDs as a mid-WR2 for 2023 fantasy football redraft leagues.
Should You Draft Terry McLaurin This Year?
If McLaurin was part of a top-10 offense, we would draft him in the second or early third round. Yet, as in years past, McLaurin won’t break the bank on draft day, despite being a better player than those around him.
Currently on Underdog Fantasy, McLaurin is valued as the WR25, while our PFN Consensus Rankings have him at WR26.
Realistically, McLaurin could be a manager’s WR3, which is about as good as you could ask going into your drafts. Whether you go RB-heavy or WR-heavy, McLaurin is among the few players who fit into every strategy.
McLaurin is likely not a player who will win you a season, but he can win you a week or two, providing more volume and as much upside as anyone else in his range.
If McLauin sees anywhere near the 33% target share that he saw in Week 18 with Howell for an entire season, he will be one of the single best values you can find at any position in 2023.