The Washington Commanders have undergone significant changes heading into the 2024 season.
Enjoying what is hopefully the best QB play of his career, is this the year WR Terry McLaurin becomes a consistently reliable WR in fantasy football?
Should You Select Terry McLaurin at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 75th Overall (WR33)
- 2023 Recap: McLaurin had a disappointing 2023 season, posting career lows in fantasy points per game (12.3), target share (21.6%), and yards per route run (1.57). Despite his talent, he was misused by the previous coaching staff and quarterback.
- 2024 Outlook: With a new coaching staff, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, and minimal competition for targets, McLaurin is in a position to rebound. With Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas no longer on the team, he is expected to see a higher target share, potentially the highest of his career.
- Opportunities for Improvement: The Commanders’ offense has undergone significant changes, and McLaurin should benefit from these. While RB Austin Ekeler is the biggest threat to his volume, McLaurin remains the clear top target in the passing game.
- ADP Value: McLaurin is currently being drafted as the WR33, 75th overall. This ADP reflects tempered expectations, but it also presents a strong value for a player who is his team’s primary target. McLaurin has the potential to outperform his draft position.
- Final Verdict: While it may be unrealistic to expect McLaurin to have the best season of his career at age 29, his situation has improved, and he offers significant value at his current ADP. Drafting McLaurin outside the top 30 wide receivers is a bet worth considering, given his clear role as the team’s WR1.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Terry McLaurin
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
60) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
61) Anthony Richardson, QB | Indianapolis Colts
Terry McLaurin’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
McLaurin is now entering his sixth NFL season. Over the past five years, he’s been a solid, yet unspectacular fantasy asset. Given his impressive 919 receiving yards as a rookie, it’s fair to say McLaurin didn’t quite turn into what he could have been.
The best way to describe McLaurin as a fantasy asset is “fine.” He’s never averaged lower than 12.3 fantasy points per game, but never higher than 14.9. He’s never finished lower than WR34, but never higher than WR20.
Unfortunately, the downside scenario occurred last season. While McLaurin has been consistent, there’s no way to spin last year as anything other than a disappointment. His 12.3 points per game was the lowest mark of his career. He saw a career-low 21.6% target share. His 1.57 yards per route run ranked 57th in the league, and he only commanded a target on 20.3% of his routes run, 46th in the league.
Terry McLaurin over two guys for the TD 😳 @TheTerry_25
📺: #WASvsDEN on CBS⁰📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/FhXtx7w3wW pic.twitter.com/SU2ZMTFm25
— NFL (@NFL) September 17, 2023
While McLaurin probably isn’t as good as his rookie year indicated, he’s certainly a talented player. He was misused by his coaches and quarterback last season. All of them are now gone. It’s hard to imagine 2024 being any worse. He’s got nowhere to go but up.
The Commanders’ WR2 is currently Jahan Dotson. He’s not a threat to McLaurin’s target share.
Curtis Samuel was much more of a threat, but he’s no longer on the team. Replacing him is rookie third-rounder Luke McCaffrey. He is also unlikely to eat into McLaurin’s target share. Even TE Logan Thomas is gone.
The biggest threat to McLaurin’s volume is RB Austin Ekeler. But I would hardly call a running back, even an elite pass catcher like Ekeler, a threat to a team’s top receiver. We could be looking at the highest target share of McLaurin’s career this season.
Whether that volume amounts to anything substantial in fantasy will depend on rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels‘ performance.
Is McLaurin a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
I am cautiously optimistic that Daniels can be competent enough as a passer right away to support McLaurin’s fantasy value. Although Daniels will run more, resulting in fewer overall pass attempts, the Commanders will likely incorporate some RPOs into their offense. If Daniels opts to pass, who will be the first read? McLaurin.
It’s certainly unwise to project a 29-year-old WR to have the best season of his career. However, given McLaurin’s ADP, it doesn’t have to be the best — it just has to be better than last year.
McLaurin’s ADP is currently WR32, No. 74 overall. There are only two clear NFL WR1s with lower ADPs. Since 2017, 86.7% of fantasy WR1s have been their team’s primary target.
Fantasy managers obviously aren’t expecting McLaurin to be a WR1 in fantasy. Nevertheless, he’s the clear top target on his team with minimal competition. That sure seems like the type of player worth drafting outside the top 30 wide receivers.