Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been remarkably consistent over his four years in the NFL. Yet to enjoy quality quarterback play, McLaurin is likely a better player than his numbers suggest. Should fantasy football managers draft him at his ADP this season?
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Terry McLaurin’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
McLaurin is a very interesting player in fantasy because, while he’s very talented, we’ve almost certainly seen his best season already. What do you do with a guy that doesn’t have any real upside but is extremely reliable and as safe as it gets?
In his four professional seasons, McLaurin has never averaged fewer than 12.6 PPR fantasy points per game, yet never more than 14.9 ppg. Last season, he set a career-high with 1,191 receiving yards. He got there in large part by being the clear top option on the Commanders.
According to Inside Edge, McLaurin has been targeted 99 times on first down since the 2021 season — 10th-most among NFL WRs. Being the first read is important. When the Commanders are looking to pick up a chunk of yards on first down, they look to McLaurin.
The problem for McLaurin has always been quarterback play. If he ever could find himself with a top-10 option under center, perhaps he could break through that glass ceiling. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this year either.
Sam Howell has looked good, but he has one NFL start under his belt, and I’m not one to overrate the preseason. I still think it’s likely we see Jacoby Brissett at some point this season, which could help the passing game but won’t be what McLaurin needs to take him over the top.
McLaurin has never seen a truly elite target share. His career high is 25.4%. Last year, it was 22.6%, 27th in the league. Part of the reason for that dip was the team drafting Jahan Dotson in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Dotson is a talented player and very much a threat to McLaurin’s target share. Let’s not forget that McLaurin, despite having just four years of NFL experience, is no spring chicken. He’s already 28 years old.
We’ve seen plenty of receivers post their career-best seasons after their fourth year in the league. But we have seen few do so at age 28 or later.
Is McLaurin a Good Fantasy Pick?
McLaurin’s ADP sits at WR20, No. 51 overall. All things being equal, I would consider that a fair price for him. But all things are not equal.
McLaurin is currently out with a case of turf toe after he was inexplicably still playing deep into the second quarter of the Commanders’ second preseason game.
There are reports McLaurin has a chance to be ready for Week 1, but I don’t buy it. Turf toe is a very annoying injury, as it affects a receiver’s ability to push off on cuts. Given when the injury occurred, it doesn’t make sense for McLaurin to push it. There’s time now to let it fully heal, which is the only way to prevent it from lingering for the entire season.
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My guess is McLaurin misses the first 2-3 weeks of the season. While 2-3 games aren’t enough to lower him too much, those games do matter. Plus, if Dotson shows out, he could maintain a higher target share than expected even upon McLaurin’s return.
McLaurin is down to WR25 in our PFN consensus rankings. I have him down at WR31 largely because I don’t like drafting injured players.
If McLaurin falls in your draft, by all means, go for it. He’s going to come back, and he’s going to be productive. But given how much a preseason injury increases the odds of an in-season injury, combined with the fact that McLaurin is not an elite player and not on an elite offense, I am not going to be drafting much of him unless I get a discount.