The Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans Sunday in a divisional matchup of teams dealing with some drama.
What a week and a half it’s been for Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer. He first blew a 2-touchdown lead to the Bengals on national TV, then stayed in Ohio to party with friends instead of flying home with his team — with Meyer’s boozy (and flirtatious) exploits captured by cell phones. He’s since apologized multiple times and has been reprimanded by his boss. Compared to that, Mike Vrabel has it made. He’s dealing with more normal football stuff — like injuries to key players and an underachieving roster. The Titans have ruled six players, including wide receiver Julio Jones, and listed another five as questionable.
Tennessee Titans offense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars defense
How does a team run 100 plays (including penalties) … not turn the ball over … and lose … to the JETS? It’s one of the great mysteries of Week 4. The short answer is, the Titans were bad in the red zone, with just 2 touchdowns on five trips. Going 5 of 19 on third downs and allowing 7 sacks didn’t help, either.
The Jaguars were equally bad at situational football in their Week 4 loss to the Bengals. Their second half was a disaster, surrendering 17 first downs, 313 yards, and allowing Cincinnati to convert all four third-down attempts after the break. The Bengals scored on all four of their second-half possessions to turn a 14-point halftime deficit into a 3-point win.
Ryan Tannehill vs. Jaguars defense
Is Ryan Tannehill finally reverting to the mean? After two comfortable, largely controlled seasons with the Titans, through four weeks, Tannehill has looked more like the quarterback he was in Miami than the one he became in Nashville.
He’s on pace for his worst season as a Titan, with his completion percentage (63.6%), touchdown rate (3.3%), yards per attempt (7.0), and passer rating (86.9) all pedestrian, to put it kindly.
Perhaps he’ll get right against a Jaguars outfit that has allowed at least 23 points in all four games to start the season. Joe Burrow plain lit Jacksonville up last Thursday, going for 348 yards and 2 touchdowns on 25 of 32 passing. The Jaguars rank 30th in passing yards allowed (312.3 per game), 31st in pass defense efficiency (9.4 yards per pass), and their interception rate (0.75%) is seventh-worst in football.
Advantage: Ryan Tannehill
Titans weapons vs. Jaguars defensive backs
If the Titans were at full strength, this would be a no-brainer. An offense with A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry would have the edge against most defenses. But this Titans team is not at full strength. Far from.
Jones and Brown both have hamstring injuries that kept them out of the Jets game. That meant Tannehill had to throw to the likes of Jeremy McNichols (12 targets) and Josh Reynolds (9) in Week 4. It’s no surprise he threw 19 incompletions. Brown is expected to play Sunday. Jones will not.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, have just 1 interception in four games, the third-fewest in football. They’ve given up the third-most yards (418.5 per game) and the fourth-most per play (6.4). Shaquill Griffin leads the team with a whopping 3 pass breakups. Griffin and Rayshawn Jenkins both give up roughly 9 yards per target. Andrew Wingard (42.2 passer rating against) is the lone bright spot in an undermanned secondary.
Advantage: Titans
Titans offensive line vs. Jaguars defensive front
What in the world is wrong with the Titans’ pass protection? A year after ranking 10th in sack rate (1.4%), they now are 30th, allowing one once every 8.9 pass attempts. That’s brutal. And the most puzzling part? The personnel hasn’t really changed. The players they have are simply playing worse.
That begins with left tackle Taylor Lewan, who’s allowed at least 3 sacks in four games. Plus he’s dealing with a toe injury that has his availibility for Sunday in question. The silver lining? The Titans can still run block. Henry is far and away the NFL’s rushing leader (127.5 per game), although his average is down nearly a full yard per carry from last year.
Still, it’ll be strength vs. strength Sunday. The one thing the Jaguars do well is stop the run. Only four teams allow fewer yards per carry than Jacksonville (3.5). It’s a big reason the Jaguars are in the top half of the league in goal-to-go defense (70%).
That’s the good news. The bad? They cannot rush the passer. The Jaguars’ sack rate is 3.8% — the second-lowest in the NFL. Josh Allen has been a disappointment so far, with 2 sacks, 2 tackles for loss, and 3 QB hits.
Advantage: Push
Jacksonville Jaguars offense vs. Tennessee Titans defense
The record doesn’t reflect it, but the Jaguars are trending in the right direction. Their 21 first downs against the Bengals were a season-high; they scored touchdowns on three of four red-zone trips and converted half of their third-down tries.
Unfortunately, they’re digging out of a deep hole. The Jaguars still rank 31st in points (18.5 per game) and are in the bottom half of the league in yards (321.5), efficiency (5.4), third downs (33.3%), and time of possession (25:29).
They’ll face a Titans defense that has surrendered 27+ points in three of their first four games. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson showed NFL promise for the first time late in New York’s Week 4 win over Tennessee, lighting up the Titans for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14-of-22 after halftime. That should have been no big surprise, though, considering Tennessee allows 6.1 yards per play, seventh-most in football.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Titans defense
We may have seen the future last Thursday night. Lawrence had by far his best game as a pro, setting season highs in completion percentage (70.8%), yards per attempt (8.5), rushing yards (36), and passer rating (96.5). But he still has a long way to go in terms of accuracy, with an ugly bad throw (26.5%) and on-target (67.6%) rates as a pro.
The Titans will be determined not to let a rookie quarterback expose them for a second straight week. But will it matter? Tennessee has been awful at pass defense through four weeks, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 8 yards per pass attempt. The team’s interception rate (1.5%) isn’t particularly good either.
Advantage: Trevor Lawrence
Jaguars weapons vs. Titans defensive backs
The season-ending DJ Chark ankle injury is a body blow to a Jaguars offense that was already limited, particularly with Travis Etienne out his entire rookie year with a hurt foot. That essentially leaves Jacksonville with Laviska Shenault (19 catches for 194 yards in 2021) and a whole lot of wishful thinking. Tavon Austin could provide some relief as he works his way into game shape.
Titans cornerback Janoris Jenkins turns 33 this month and looks every bit of it. Opposing quarterbacks have a 103.2 passer rating against him. Kristian Fulton has been boom or bust. He leads the Titans with 5 pass breakups and has allowed just 46.2% of passes thrown his way to be completed. But he’s also given up 19.1 yards per completion and 2 touchdowns. Tennessee had high hopes for safety Amani Hooker, but he’s on injured reserve with a foot injury. Former All-Pro safety Kevin Byard has been excellent as usual.
Advantage: Push
Jaguars offensive line vs. Titans front seven
A big reason for the Jaguars’ improved play on offense in Week 4 was the excellent play of their offensive line. Lawrence was sacked just once, and the Jaguars exposed a supposed stout Bengals defense for 139 rushing yards and 4.6 per carry.
But this was no one-time blip. The Jaguars, led by left tackle Cam Robinson, are sixth in both yards per carry (4.9) and sack rate (4.2%). They’re also 12th in converting goal-to-go situations into touchdowns (80%).
Pass rush was a huge issue for the Titans in 2020, and they spent big money to solve it, bringing in Bud Dupree via free agency. Dupree has missed the past two games with a knee injury but should play Sunday. He should add pop to a defense that has 16 tackles for loss in four games.
Outside linebacker Harold Landry leads the team in that category with 4. He also has 2.5 sacks. The Titans’ run defense ranks eighth in yards (91.5 per game) and ninth in efficiency (3.9 per carry).
Advantage: Jaguars
Betting line and game prediction
The Jaguars are 4.5-point home underdogs, and that seems a bit fat to our eyes. The Titans are 27th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA — only four spots ahead of the Jaguars. If the Tennessee offense were at full strength, we could see laying those points. But while Tennessee will likely win, we see it closer than most.
Prediction: Titans 23, Jaguars 21