The Tennessee Titans‘ outlook dives into what rookie QB Will Levis has done for fantasy football managers, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ fantasy preview takes a look at TE Cade Otton’s recent breakout.
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -1
- Total: 38
- Titans implied points: 18.5
- Buccaneers implied points: 19.5
Quarterbacks
Will Levis: The numbers were underwhelming in Pittsburgh (22 of 39 for 262 yards, zero TDs, and one INT) compared to his NFL debut against the Falcons (19 of 29 for 238 yards and four TDs), but I thought he held his own for a QB making his second career start against an aggressive unit on a Thursday night.
He continues to flash the big arm and the potential that comes with it, but much like Jordan Love early this season, that style of playing with limited NFL experience comes with a wide range of outcomes.
This is a fine spot where he could access some of that upside, but the risk profile isn’t going anywhere. I’m not rostering him in a standard-sized league — with a lot of talent on bye. However, he’s very much an option in two-QB and Superflex formats.
Baker Mayfield: Last week saw 76 points scored in the Bucs game. If you think that happens again, then go ahead and invest in Mayfield.
Good luck with that. Here are the point totals in Buccaneer games prior to the shootout that took place in Week 9: 37, 44, 36, 35, 26, 29, and 42.
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One of these things is not like the other — one of these things does not belong.
Mayfield and his usually condensed target distribution is a cute DFS avenue if you’re trying to be different this weekend, but outside of that, I’m not going in that direction in anything but two-QB formats.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: In his first five games this season, The King was averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, but in his past three, his rate is up 1.6 yards, and he is rounding into the form we expected to see.
He’s also caught multiple passes in four straight games, fueling a nice floor while the scoring has yet to come in bunches like we’ve seen in the past (yet to score in consecutive games this season).
As involved as Tyjae Spears is in terms of snaps, it’s not standing in the way of Henry getting the volume that we’ve come to know and love, something that I expect to be the case for the remainder of the season. He deserves to be locked in across the board, and with extra time to recover, we should get an ultra-physical version of him this weekend.
Tyjae Spears: The rookie again out-snapped Henry (44-36) and held a significant edge in routes run (29-12), but the touch-per-snap rate just isn’t there. Spears has yet to reach a dozen touches in a game this season, a role that has him well outside of my Flex radar.
He’s worth rostering in deeper formats, but many sites come with default shallow benches, and in a league like that, I’m more likely to fill out my roster with players who own access to a higher weekly ceiling than what we’ve seen with Spears.
Rachaad White: The next person that watches White run the ball between the tackles and is impressed will be the first, but there is simply no denying his value in this game of ours.
He has at least 16 touches in seven of eight games this season, and by hauling in 33 of 34 targets this season, his floor in any format that rewards per reception is that of an RB2. His role in the passing game is moving in the right direction, as his top three receiving games this season have come in his past three games.
A pair of one-yard scores fueled his ceiling performance in Week 9. It was good to see him convert those high-leverage carries, but counting on them isn’t wise (one touchdown on 121 touches this season entering last week, per the Week 10 Cheat Sheet).
White is inching his way up my ranks on a weekly basis by continuing to reach expectations. It sounds simple, but by coming through on a consistent basis, he’s proven more valuable than RBs that most would label as superior talents.
White is a top-15 RB for me this week and is sharing a tier with explosive backs in Atlanta Falcon Bijan Robinson and Seattle Seahawk Kenneth Walker III that aren’t being used at the level we want.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: The three touchdowns in Week 8 during Levis’ debut were great to see and is proof positive of him owning a higher ceiling with Levis under center than Ryan Tannehill. However, performances like last week in Pittsburgh are just as likely to occur with a green QB (60 yards on 11 targets).
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This is a better matchup for the passing game than the run game, so I understand why you’d be comfortable in flexing Nuk this week, but the wide range of outcomes is not something I’m looking to invest in unless you’re a big underdog and can absorb significant risk.
Treylon Burks: Burks was placed in concussion protocol following a scary injury last week, and while he seems to have avoided anything serious, I’m not counting on him playing this week. Kyle Philips has punt-play potential in DFS if this is the case, but “WR2” in Tennessee is not a role I believe is worth a roster spot in standard-sized season-long leagues.
Mike Evans: He was an inch away from a touchdown last week, and if he finishes that 53-yard reception with a score, his fantasy stock isn’t a question. That said, Evans didn’t score and has now seen his target count decline in three straight games.
His average finish this season is outside of the top 30 WRs when he doesn’t find the end zone, giving him a lower floor than most in the “lineup lock” tier of receiver. While that’s less than ideal, I’m not giving a second thought to Evans’ status this week in a very positive matchup where Mayfield should be able to support multiple receivers.
Chris Godwin: We have loved Godwin’s floor in years past, but that’s simply not the case these days. With just one touchdown this season (40 catches on 62 targets) and a declining yardage total over his past five games (114-77-66-54-16), the floor/ceiling profile isn’t working in his favor these days.
The target count remains passable (132 pace), which keeps him on the Flex radar for leagues that reward per reception. But you have to be willing to consider the thought moving forward that Godwin is no longer a lock in your starting lineup.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton: The 2022 fourth-round pick lit up your waiver wire with a six-catch, 70-yard, and two-touchdown performance opposite the Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud explosion — flash in the pan or added depth to the TE pool?
He’s seen at least six targets in three straight games, and that’s encouraging, but be careful. Not only is his best-case scenario the fourth option in this passing game (behind Evans, Godwin, and White), but we are talking about a player who didn’t clear 42 catches in any of his collegiate seasons or his rookie year in the NFL.
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He’s on the field plenty (over 95% snap share in seven of eight games this season), so if that’s your threshold at the position, by all means, invest. He ran a route on 90.9% of Mayfield dropbacks last week, a rate that ranks up there with anyone.
I’m skeptical of his role and skill set, landing him outside of my top 15 at the position.
Should You Start DeAndre Hopkins or Zay Flowers?
I’ve had Flowers ranked ahead of Hopkins every week this season — until Week 10. There is no denying the bump in upside for Hopkins with Levis under center (+16% aDOT compared to Ryan Tannehill) and with Flowers totaling just 30 yards over his past two games, this Baltimore offense doesn’t need him the same way Tennessee needs Hopkins.
For the remainder of the season, I still have Flowers ranked higher with the hope that he carves out a greater role down the stretch, but for Week 10, give me Hopkins, the future Hall of Famer.
Should You Start Chris Godwin or Courtland Sutton?
Godwin’s volume has been empty of late, and the floor he once offered is lower now than it was. The downward-trending production is enough for me to side with Sutton and his one touchdown per 7.7 targets this season.
That scoring rate, of course, will not sustain, but this is a good spot for the short pass game, and Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy’s aDOT is 33.3% higher than that of Sutton.
Look for him to add nice volume to a profile that carries decent TD equity, a combination that lands him inside of my top 20 at the position this week.
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