The Tennessee Titans‘ outlook revolves around Derrick Henry’s fantasy football value, while the Miami Dolphins‘ fantasy preview takes a look at their backfield touch distribution.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -13.5
- Total: 47
- Titans implied points: 16.8
- Dolphins implied points: 30.3
Quarterbacks
Will Levis: The rookie has failed to complete 20 passes in four straight games and without any rushing potential in his profile, the path to mattering in our game simply isn’t there.
Levis threw four touchdown passes on 29 attempts in his debut against the Falcons and has just three scores on 156 passes since. If you’re playing the Monday Night Football DFS slate, you can try to get cute and go in this direction, but I’m going to be eating the chalk at the position and differentiating elsewhere.
Tua Tagovailoa: The playmakers are spectacular, but someone has to put them in a position to succeed, and Tagvaolila has excelled at doing that (70.1% completion percentage for the season, at least 70% in three straight games).
Now he gets a team that ranks in the top quarter of the league in stopping the run and the bottom quarter of the league in stopping the pass. I don’t want to say that this feels like daring Steph Curry to beat you with three-pointers or trash-talking near-peak Tiger Woods, but it feels that way, doesn’t it?
MORE: Fantasy Football QB Week 14 Trade Targets
Can we agree that this is a non-divisional game against a non-top 10 QB? In those spots this season, Tagovailoa has completed 74.7% of his passes while averaging 9.9 yards per attempt and a touchdown coming once every 8.6 completions.
Most weeks, I have a “Big Three” at the QB position — this week, it’s a big five to include Tagovailoa (QB4) and Dak Prescott (QB5).
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: There has been some confusion this week surrounding Henry’s head injury, and that leaves fantasy managers in a bit of a holding pattern. With consecutive multi-TD games, Henry could be peaking again at the perfect time for fantasy managers.
But with a rookie behind him and this season going nowhere, isn’t it possible that the team uses the final month to see what they have moving forward, as opposed to relying on a back that isn’t likely to be a part of the big picture?
If Henry is ruled active, I’m playing him — but with some trepidation. It’s been more than a month since he caught multiple passes in a game, and the game script is certainly a concern against a top-10 offense in both points and yards-per-play.
Tyjae Spears: The rookie has looked the part of an NFL asset at points this season, and with Henry at less than full strength, we might get a preview of the 2024 season over the final month of 2023.
He touched the ball 20 times last week (88 yards) — a role that feels reasonable to project if Henry sits out this weekend. Even in a reserve role, Spears is averaging nearly four targets per game, a valuable skill set, given the projected game script. Spears is a fringe Flex option if Henry is active, and if he is handed the starting gig in this spot, he moves inside of my top 20 at the position.
Raheem Mostert: With De’Von Achane active against the Washington Commanders, Mostert handled all of the rush attempts in the first two drives and held a 19-12 snap edge over the rookie in the first half while this game was remotely competitive.
The résumé is an interesting one, and it scares me a little bit in this spot. I still value him as an RB2 with the lead role in this backfield, but Mostert seeing just five targets over his past five games is a potential concern.
While his touchdown scoring has been nothing short of elite (more multi-TD games than scoreless games this season), a matchup against the second-best red-zone defense brings in a floor that most other matchups don’t.
I’ll be tracking the early game usage carefully in this one. I’m comfortable in assuming that Achane is a weekly starter the rest of the way, but if the shine were to come off Mostert down the stretch, it wouldn’t shock me.
De’Von Achane: The explosive rookie looked healthy after missing five of six games (knee), and while the touch count pops (20), don’t overreact and think that he is the unquestioned leader in this backfield. Much of that came in garbage time, as Miami melted the clock in their 30-point win over Washington.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
That said, Achane has four games this season with at least 10 touches, and in all four of them, he has produced top-five fantasy numbers at the position. I’m not sure that’s going to sustain, but a healthy version of Achane is deserving of your trust.
His first carry last week didn’t come until the third drive, and until this team features him early, I’m going to have him ranked slightly behind Mostert. That said, it doesn’t matter — you’re starting both with confidence until otherwise noted.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: With at least nine targets or a score in four of his past five games, Nuk did both last week in the overtime loss to the Colts. Not that we needed further proof that he is the only Titan WR worth a look, but his 36.4% target share last week gave us just that.
The Dolphins have allowed the opposing WR1 to score in four of five games since Jalen Ramsey debuted for the team, with the last two alpha target earners producing strong fantasy numbers on strong volume:
- Davante Adams: Seven receptions for 82 yards and a TD on 34.2% of targets
- Garrett Wilson: Seven receptions for 44 yards and a TD on 27.8% of targets
There is a built-in risk given the inconsistencies of Levis, but the upside in a game that should slant toward the pass due to the score is Hopkins slides in as a low-end WR2 for me (ahead of the other WRs in tough QB situations like Adam Thielen, Ja’Marr Chase, and the aforementioned Wilson).
Tyreek Hill: What is there left to say? The first drive of Week 13 featured a 78-yard Hill TD (21.7 MPH), and shortly thereafter, he was taking a 60-yard pass to the house in a play that just looked too easy.
Hill is 484 yards short of the single-season record for receiving yards. I want you to tweet me (@KyleSoppePFN) and my boss (@DavidBearmanPFN) the week and quarter number he will write his name in the history books. I’m going to say the first quarter of Week 18.
Jaylen Waddle: It’s largely been a tough season for offenses that we thought would have two viable receivers (CIN, JAX, and TB to name a few), and the Dolphins are no exception. Waddle has been a top-35 WR in just one of his past four games — something he could have done last week in Washington if not for a drop that cost him at least three fantasy points and potentially more.
I’m comfortable in going down with this ship if that is how this pans out. Waddle is still the talented player with extreme upside that we’ve seen thrive in the past, and he’s averaging 8.4 targets per game over the past month. You can downgrade him in your ranks if you’d like, but you’re overreacting if it is to a point where his status as a fantasy starter is in question.
Tight Ends
I don’t doubt that we see some big plays in this game, but I’d be shocked if any of them went to the TE position. The tight ends in this game don’t offer an exciting floor or ceiling, so don’t waste your time looking here for help at the position.
Should You Start Jayden Reed or DeAndre Hopkins?
I have them ranked back-to-back, with the veteran getting the most minor of edges due to the projected game flow. While the Packers are big road favorites, Hopkins’ Titans are a home underdog and will likely be forced to pass more often than normal.
MORE: Katz’s Fantasy Football Start ’Em, Sit ’Em Picks for Week 14
I’m playing the volume game – I have Hopkins for a few more targets and that should allow him to pay off in this spot, even if each target holds slightly less value than those of Reed.
Should You Start Saquon Barkley or De’Von Achane?
Barkley gets the nod here for no other reason than I know his volume will be there. Achane was RB2 in this Miami offense last week when the game was reasonably competitive and in a difficult matchup, that creates a floor that is lower than normal.
Barkley’s versatility gives him the ability to produce in any game script and if New York is going to keep this close on Monday night, it’s because they’ve found a way to feature their best player in a significant way. Achane is great, but if we are talking a 7-10 touch difference, I’ll gamble on Barkley paying things off.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
