While the 29th first-round draft position is unfamiliar to the Tennessee Titans organization, it is not unfamiliar to their GM Jon Robinson, who was a scout at various levels for the New England Patriots from 2002-2013. I expect Robinson to build on his draft success in 2020 by adding an impact player on the defensive side of the ball for a number of reasons listed below. Therefore I am taking the 2020 NFL Draft prop bet of the Tennessee Titans selecting a defensive player first, according to the NFL lines at 888Sport at -118.
Editor’s note: since submission, the odds have changed from -118 to -134.
After a run to the AFC championship last year, the Tennessee Titans will be looking for a game-changer to help them take the next step when they select 29th in the upcoming 2020 draft. Robinson has been nothing short of spectacular rebuilding a lousy 2015 titans roster that he inherited into a team who has flashed greatness and appears set for success for years to come.
Consistency on offense for the Titans
The Titans have been a revolving door of offensive coaches and players for the last decade, so I commend Robinson for investing this offseason to retain the main cogs of the 2019 offense. He inked 2019 Comeback Player of the Year Ryan Tannehill to a four year extension worth up to $118 million.
Tannehill went from a backup with a dim career outlook to a top NFL quarterback following taking over in Week 7 for the Titans, leading the team to a 7-3 regular season, a playoff berth, and two playoff wins. He was nothing short of spectacular during these games, actually leading the league in QBR at 117.5. He will be worth every penny if he can continue to play as he did in 2019, and there is no reason to think he can’t with another year with the personnel and coaches.
After securing Tannehill, Robinson wasted no time in tagging Derrick Henry the following day to keep the backfield intact for at least this next year. Despite Tannehill’s success, it was Henry who was the focal point of the Titans offense last season. The Titans fed Henry 303 times in the regular season and 83 times in three postseason games. Despite the high volume, Henry was able to maintain an average of over five yards per carry.
Not only will the Titans backfield remain intact, but they also bring back their entire receiving group (minus Tajae Sharp) and offensive line (minus Jack Conklin). Sharpe was a quality WR4 but is not an impact player, while Jack Conklin got rewarded in free agency. It is assumed that re-signed tackle Dennis Kelly will replace Conklin, so for draft purposes there is not a glaring need at right tackle. Couple this with the retention of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and the majority of his staff, and we can see the commitment by Jon Robinson to keep the major pieces of the 2019 offense in hopes that another year of continuity would only allow them to improve.
Robinson has invested the Titans salary capital on offense this offseason, and I think he believes all the pieces are in place for a top NFL offense from the Titans in 2020. This salary commitment to retain the offense has hampered the Titans ability to pay players on defense, evidenced by the departures of veteran Jurrell Casey and possible departure of Logan Ryan. I expect Robinson to use early draft picks to supplant these veterans that were unable to be paid in his choice to retain the key offensive players.
Where’s the love for the defense?
While Robinson has made retaining the key players on the offensive side of the ball a priority, the same can not be said for the defense. Despite being named to his fifth straight Pro Bowl, Jurrell Casey was traded to the Denver Broncos for a seventh-round pick. While Casey’s play had begun to decline, he was a key part of the defense that was 12th in points per game allowed in 2019 and a leader in the locker room.
Furthermore, cornerback Logan Ryan remains unsigned. He was a focal point of Dean Pees’ defense as a do-it-all slot cornerback, contributing four interceptions, four forced fumbles and 4.5 sacks last regular season. Combined with 113 tackles, it is not hard to quantify Ryan’s impact to the Titans last season — no matter what you asked of Ryan he seemed to deliver all year.
Yet, here we sit eight days away from the NFL Draft and Ryan remains unsigned. Perhaps Robinson is waiting to see if there is a corner available at pick 29 of the 2020 NFL Draft that can make a Logan Ryan-type impact on a rookie deal before paying Ryan, and if Ryan can remain unsigned by another team this gamble might pay off for him.
The bold way that Robinson handled these moves involving these two veteran defensive players versus the way he handled Tannehill and Henry on the offensive side of the ball this offseason tells me that Robinson is betting on himself to deliver quality starters on the defensive side of the ball in the 2020 NFL draft, amplifying my confidence in this bet.
Titans on the cusp of greatness
The other thing that these moves tell me is that the Titans are all in on a Super Bowl run, and why shouldn’t they be? They led in this year’s AFC championship game and beat juggernauts like the Patriots and Ravens to get there. They retain the offense that looked unstoppable after Tannehill took over, as well as the coaching staff. While this is all great, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC for the forseeable future will run through either Kansas City and Baltimore, who have two of the most prolific offenses and dynamic quarterbacks that this league has ever seen.
As the Titans found out in last year’s AFC championship, you do not want to get into a shootout with Patrick Mahomes and company. If the Titans are going to be successful in their Super Bowl push in the next few years, Robinson knows he will have to bolster the defense in order to slow down these amazing quarterbacks that now reside on his side of the conference. With not much to show for in free agency on defense, the Titans will be searching for this defensive playmaker early in this year’s draft to help slow down these uber-talented AFC offenses.
No defensive coordinator in Tennessee?
The last factor that made me pull the trigger on this bet is the bold move that the Titans took this year after Dean Pees’ retirement: Mike Vrabel would be overseeing the defense as well as retaining his head coaching duties. This is a heavy workload for Vrabel to take on, and many around the league think the defense may suffer without a coordinator’s undivided attention. Even with this potential criticism looming, Robinson felt comfortable letting defensive mainstays Jurrell Casey be traded and Logan Ryan test free agency.
Vrabel and Robinson’s relationship extends further than just head coach and general manager, as they are great friends dating back to their time working together on the Patriots. I know Robinson will be looking to give Vrabel all the tools to make this bold endeavor pay off, and since he hasn’t done so thus far in free agency, I suspect he and Vrabel both have their eyes on a defensive game-changer early.
Expectations for the Titans 2020 NFL Draft
For all these reasons I believe the Titans select a defensive player with their first pick in the draft, and therefore jumped all over this 2020 NFL Draft prop bet when I saw it at only -118 on 888Sport (editor’s note: since submission, the odds have changed from -118 to -134).
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