The Detroit Lions host the one-win Tennessee Titans a week after winning a huge battle for first place in the NFC North in Minnesota. The Titans were outscored 34-0 last week in Buffalo, N.Y., after jumping to a 10-0 lead.
The Lions are a huge home favorite and are looking for their sixth win in seven games. Here are picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Titans at Lions (-11, 45) Odds and Betting Lines, 1 p.m. ET
Soppe: Per our Week 8 Insights Stat Packet: “The Lions didn’t average more than 2.36 points per drive in any of their first three games this season. Since, however, they’ve been at 2.82 or better, averaging a difficult-to-comprehend 3.53 points per drive over that stretch.”
Kalif Raymond scores to extend the Lions lead!
📺: #DETvsMIN on FOX
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Over its past 21 home games, Detroit is 15-6 ATS (71.4%) with overs coming through 14 times (66.7%), including three out of four games when the Lions are giving more than seven points. The Titans have an above-average defense, but this was the fourth-worst EPA offense before trading DeAndre Hopkins. That might mean that the Lions only need 25 points to cover this number … they are averaging 30.3.
Pick: Lions -11
Katz: The Detroit Lions haven’t actually been as run-heavy as they seem. They have a 48% neutral game script run rate, which is 14th in the league. But their overall run rate is 50%, ninth in the league. They also play at the second-slowest pace in the league.
This has all the makings of a blowout. The Lions are 11-point home favorites, and the line continues to climb. The Tennessee Titans just traded away DeAndre Hopkins. Calvin Ridley is banged up. This feels like a spot where the Lions will take an early lead and be able to run the ball 35 times.
Goff has been ridiculously efficient lately, completing 76 of his last 91 passes. Over that span, he has three games with 280+ passing yards but attempted just 25, 25, 18, and 23 passes in his last four games. In total, Goff has attempted more than 28 passes just once. That came in the Lions’ lone loss against the Bucs in Week 2.
If the game script goes as expected, Goff should not need to reach 30 pass attempts for just the second time this season.
Pick: Jared Goff under 29.5 pass attempts
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have only trailed at halftime in one of their six games this season. However, Tennessee has been outscored 94-43 (-51) in the second half, the worst second-half point differential of any team this season.
QB: The decision-making has been an issue, but Will Levis’ completion percentage is 15 points higher this season than last when under pressure (55.6%).
Offense: Do you think things are working better with Mason Rudolph instead of Levis? The Titans are averaging -0.19 EPA per play with Levis on the field, which would rank 30th. With Rudolph on the field, the Titans are averaging -0.17 EPA per play, which would rank 28th.
Defense: The Titans are allowing a league-low 5.7 yards per play-action pass this season
Fantasy: Calvin Ridley has proven to be the definition of empty calories when it comes to targets over the past two weeks — three catches on 17 targets for 42 yards. Being targeted on 28.3% of his routes over that stretch is great, but let him serve as a reminder that limitations under center can tank the value of any player, even if the role is strong.
Betting: The Titans have covered six of their past eight indoor games (average cover margin: +7.5 points).
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions have a +62 point differential through six games played. It’s their second-best point differential through six games in the last 40 years.
QB: Jared Goff has posted at least a 140 passer rating in three straight games. That’s tied for the longest streak in NFL history, along with Aaron Rodgers (2011), Kurt Warner (1999), and Roger Staubach (1971).
Jared Goff was under pressure on a season-high 51.7% of his dropbacks against the Vikings, finishing 10-of-11 for 164 yards and 2 touchdowns under pressure.
Goff is averaging a league-high 11.6 YPA under pressure this season; no other QB is over 9.0.
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Defense: In Weeks 3-6, the Lions blitzed on just 28.4% of opponent dropbacks, spiking to 38.9% last week in Minnesota without Aidan Hutchinson.
Fantasy: Sam LaPorta has three finishes as a top-12 tight end and three outside the top 20.
Betting: Since the start of the 2021 season, the Lions have had the best home ATS team in the league (20-8, 71.4%).
