Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins is coming off back-to-back unimpressive seasons. However, he’s still a very talented player, and each of his past two seasons can be mostly explained away. Could Higgins be one of the best values of 2024 fantasy football drafts?
Should You Select Tee Higgins at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 56th Overall (WR27)
- Solid Rookie Start: After surpassing 900 receiving yards in his rookie season, Higgins appeared poised to be the Bengals’ WR1 of the future. However, the arrival of Ja’Marr Chase changed the dynamic, with the two coexisting well in 2021.
- Recent Struggles: Higgins’ performance dipped in 2022, averaging just 13.1 fantasy ppg. The 2023 season was a disaster, with Higgins averaging 11.5 fantasy points per game and finishing as the overall WR40. Multiple factors, including injuries to both Higgins and Joe Burrow, contributed to his struggles.
- Signs of Optimism: Despite the down year, Higgins still showed flashes of his potential. When removing his anomalous Week 1 and the games he left early due to injury, Higgins averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game in his other eight contests.
- ADP Analysis: Higgins is currently being drafted as the WR27, which aligns with my ranking of WR26. While there are many talented wide receivers with upside, Higgins has the potential to outperform his ADP, especially with a healthy Burrow under center.
- Final Verdict: Higgins remains a talented receiver with WR1/2 potential. Given his motivation to perform well in a contract year and the Bengals’ pass-heavy offense, fantasy managers should strongly consider drafting Higgins in the mid-single-digit rounds.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Tee Higgins
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
45) Cooper Kupp, WR | Los Angeles Rams
46) Lamar Jackson, QB | Baltimore Ravens
47) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
48) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
Higgins’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
After a strong rookie season that saw him surpass 900 receiving yards, Higgins sure looked poised to be the Bengals’ WR1 of the future. Then, they drafted Ja’Marr Chase.
The two coexisted perfectly in 2021 with Higgins averaging 15.7 fantasy points per game, looking well on his way to becoming a fantasy WR1. In 2022, he regressed to just 13.1 fantasy ppg.
The 2023 season was just a disaster. Higgins averaged 11.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR40. He was one of the worst picks fantasy managers could make.
So…what happened? And is there room for optimism in 2024?
On the surface, it looks really bad. But there were several extenuating circumstances for Higgins last season.
First, and most obviously, was Joe Burrow’s health. The Bengals quarterback strained his calf in the preseason and wasn’t healthy until about the middle of October. Then, just as Burrow was getting past his calf issue, he tore a ligament in his wrist, ending his season.
On top of that, Higgins had his health issues, too. Injuries limited him to 12 games, but that doesn’t tell the full story. He left three games early due to injury, scoring 3.9, 4.0, and 2.9 fantasy points in those contests. There was also the outlier in Week 1 when Higgins posted a good ol’ bagel.
I’m well aware that every game counts, and removing certain games for specific reasons to inflate Higgins’ performance is not indicative of the value he provided fantasy managers. However, the goal here is to evaluate how he will perform going forward.
I’m not suggesting the down weeks or the weeks he got hurt mid-game didn’t matter. The point is merely to prove that Higgins isn’t suddenly a bad football player.
If we remove his anomalous Week 1, as well as the three games he left early, Higgins averaged 15.8 fantasy points per game in his other eight contests. If you remove the four games Higgins left early due to injury in 2022, he was around the same average.
Is Higgins a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The inexorable conclusion is a healthy Higgins with a healthy Burrow is still a borderline WR1/2. Yet, he’s going off the board as the WR27.
Furthermore, Higgins’ ADP is completely understandable. I have him ranked as my WR26, which is much lower than I think he can finish. There are simply many talented wide receivers with a ton of upside.
As long as Chase is around, Higgins is never going to be the top target on his offense. But that doesn’t preclude him from getting close to WR1 value.
Cincinnati threw the ball 63% of the time in neutral game scripts last season. Even after Burrow went down, the Bengals didn’t change their offensive philosophy. Head coach Zac Taylor believes in passing.
Higgins is playing out the current season on the franchise tag. He has every motivation to put together an impressive year to earn a big second contract. Subsequently, fantasy managers should absolutely be looking at him in the mid-single-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.