Tee Higgins saw his point production decline by 11.2% from 2021 to 2022 as Ja’Marr Chase emerged as the Cincinnati Bengals‘ WR1, but he was still a top-20 fantasy football receiver and capable of winning you weeks. In fact, he came on when it mattered most by scoring in four of his final five games. That said, there is no denying that Higgins’ usage saw a decline (targeted on 20.3% of routes last season with Chase on the field, down from 22.8% the year prior). Is that a cause for concern or a blip on the radar?
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Tee Higgins’ Fantasy Outlook
The Bengals aren’t going to tweak their offensive core if they don’t have to, and they are essentially running back the same crew from 2022. Chase and Tyler Boyd again join Higgins in the receiver room while Joe Mixon got his contract situation figured out and is back to lead this backfield.
Joe Burrow continues to ascend, though it is worth noting that a calf injury did cost him preparation time this offseason. Cincinnati added some pieces on the outskirts of their offense: Chase Brown replaces Samaje Perine as RB2, and Irv Smith Jr. fills the void left by Hayden Hurst at the tight end position. Neither of those roster moves figures to change Higgins’ role at all but are noteworthy if you want late-round exposure to this upward-trending offense.
How Low Is Higgins’ Floor With Ja’Marr Chase Assuming the WR1 Role?
A quick glance at the season stat line and, to the casual fan, it would appear that it took Higgins two more games to produce nearly an identical stat line to 2021. That, of course, would be a red flag, but he did leave a pair of games before running 10 routes, and that drags down his ppg. Remove those two games, and his 2022 (202.4 fantasy points) would basically be identical to his 2021 (200.6).
The difference was how he got there. In 2022, he had six games in which he recorded 15-25 fantasy points. He only had two such games in 2021, a season that featured both a 40.4-point effort and a pair of games under 4.0 points.
If Higgins is trading in a wide range of outcomes that featured an elite ceiling and a crippling floor for a stable role that consistently ranks him among the top 20 receivers week in and week out, I actually view him as more valuable now than he was in 2021.
However, if you dig a little deeper, there is some cause for concern. When an aDOT drops, you’d expect the target rate to increase because those are the easier passes, but with Higgins, he dropped in both areas.
I mentioned the dip in target earning numbers earlier, and when that is combined with an aDOT that dipped by nearly 10%, the argument could be made that there is more risk than what we saw play out in the raw numbers last season.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Higgins at His ADP?
I don’t think enough is made of the potential downside here. Can an offense sustain two elite receivers? Of course. This offense has done it in consecutive seasons, and the Eagles did it last year, too, with A.J. Brown (WR6) and DeVonta Smith (WR12) easily providing strong value. I think that’s what is most likely to happen in Cincy this season, but “most likely” doesn’t mean a lock, right?
It was 24 months ago that we were all having the “Is Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp the guy in Los Angeles?” debate. I’m serious. It sounds crazy in hindsight, but entering 2021, Woods’ ADP was 36th overall (WR14) and Kupp’s was 46th overall (WR18).
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Again, I don’t think this is a likely outcome, but I wanted to put it on your radar. I like Higgins as much as any of the WRs that have target competition in Round 3 (Smith, DK Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel), but a guy like Chris Olave is someone I have higher in my rankings. Don’t sleep on Derek Carr throwing downfield!
If you land an elite running back in Round 1, I have no issue in double-tapping the receiver position in Rounds 2-3, with Higgins being an option there. I’m just not entering the draft with him highlighted on my cheat sheet.