Every year, without fail, there are weeks when fantasy football managers wish they had started Taysom Hill. Predicting when he smashes has been an exercise in futility. Should fantasy managers expect anything different for the New Orleans Saints‘ offensive weapon in 2024?
Should You Select Taysom Hill at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 212th Overall (TE22)
- Consistent Yet Unpredictable: Hill has averaged between 9.0 and 10.6 fantasy points per game over the past four seasons, but his production is notoriously erratic. Last season, he had four games with 15+ fantasy points, but also seven games with fewer than five points.
- Touchdown Dependency: Hill has scored at least seven touchdowns in each of the past five seasons, making him more likely to find the end zone than most traditional tight ends. His value is heavily reliant on these scores.
- Role in 2024: Hill’s role is unlikely to change much this season. While he saw a career-high in targets last year due to injuries at wide receiver, it’s expected that those targets will decrease. His carries and pass attempts should remain similar to last season.
- ADP Analysis: Hill’s ADP is currently TE22, reflecting his unpredictable nature. Fantasy managers generally avoid drafting him due to his boom-or-bust profile, but his potential for spike weeks keeps him on the radar during the season.
- Final Verdict: Hill is ranked as my TE20, slightly ahead of consensus but still not a player I would draft. He’s more of a waiver wire option for when you need a high-risk, high-reward play. Draft a more reliable tight end, and consider Hill only if your starter doesn’t pan out.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Taysom Hill
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Hill is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus TE rankings instead.
13) T.J. Hockenson, TE | Minnesota Vikings
14) Dalton Schultz, TE | Houston Texans
15) Cole Kmet, TE | Chicago Bears
16) Pat Freiermuth, TE | Pittsburgh Steelers
17) Luke Musgrave, TE | Green Bay Packers
18) Taysom Hill, TE | New Orleans Saints
19) Cade Otton, TE | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20) Hunter Henry, TE | New England Patriots
21) Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE | Tennessee Titans
22) Tucker Kraft, TE | Green Bay Packers
23) Juwan Johnson, TE | New Orleans Saints
Hill’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
Looking at Hill’s final numbers, he’s been remarkably consistent over the past four years, averaging between 9.0 and 10.6 fantasy points per game each season. Of course, how he got there was anything but.
Last season, Hill had four games of 15+ fantasy points that carried his per-game average. Yet, there were seven games with fewer than five points and another two between eight and nine.
Hill has scored at least seven touchdowns in each of the past five seasons. Last year, only one tight end (Sam LaPorta) scored more than six times.
Touchdowns are everything in fantasy football. We know Hill is liable to be a crater in our lineup any given week, but he’s also more likely to score than almost every true tight end.
Will things be any different this season? Probably not.
Hill handled 81 carries, saw 40 targets, and attempted 11 passes last season. The targets were a career-high, but they were largely a product of the Saints’ plethora of injuries at wide receiver. Assuming better injury luck this season, Hill is unlikely to see even half as many. The carries and pass attempts should be relatively similar, though.
Is Hill a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
To no surprise, Hill’s ADP is TE22. It’s the same story with him pretty much every season.
Fantasy managers aren’t going to draft Hill because he’s too unreliable. The spike weeks are unpredictable and few and far between. But they’re possible. Better yet, they’re a certainty.
Even though we don’t know when, the fact that they will happen becomes more appealing during the season as injuries and underperformance negatively impact fantasy rosters.
This inevitably leads to fantasy managers looking at the waiver wire and viewing Hill as their best shot at a point total that can actually make a difference in their matchup.
That’s exactly how I’m approaching Hill this season. He’s my TE20. Although that’s a bit ahead of consensus, it’s low enough that I’m never going to need to draft him — and I never would.
Coming out of the draft, I want a tight end with the potential to be a weekly starter. If the tight end I draft doesn’t pan out, then depending on the options, perhaps I will look to Hill as a solution.