Houston Texans WR Tank Dell took the internet over last night thanks to an impressive preseason debut that has some fantasy football analysts moving the rookie up their draft boards. Dell’s introduction to the national audience was impressive, but does it deserve any adjustment on our end?
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Who Is Tank Dell?
It may not be immediately but Tank Dell is gonna be a thing this year. https://t.co/b8SEMPbnnt
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) August 10, 2023
First, let’s introduce you to the artist known as “Tank.” His real first name is Nathaniel, while the “Tank” nickname came from his mom at a young age, highlighting his abnormally large head at the time.
The nickname makes you think of an imposing player, one that has the physical tools to embarrass defenders. Like Ja’Marr Chase. If he was “Tank” Chase, that would track with how our minds categorize that nickname.
Not so much. Dell is 165 pounds soaking yet, but that didn’t stop him at the collegiate level (199 catches for 2,727 yards and 29 touchdowns over his final two seasons at Houston) and clearly wasn’t an issue on Thursday night against the New England Patriots (five catches on eight targets for 65 yards and a touchdown).
He’s “get open in a phone booth” quick, and that allowed him to have success at all three levels in the college game.
Tank Dell’s Fantasy Outlook
Dell is a nice player and might well turn into something for dynasty managers, but using the first preseason game as an excuse to get excited is … well, it’s proof that we’ve gone too long without football in our lives.
None of Dell’s catches on Thursday night came from presumed starter C.J. Stroud, so there’s that. Stroud looked his way once, was way late on the throw, and it was intercepted. It happens. That part doesn’t concern me, but the profile does.
At this size, you are truly counting on Dell being a rare talent, and if that was your pre-draft evaluation, fine. I don’t agree, but fine. You just can’t move him into the “rare talent” bucket after last night if you didn’t have him there already. I’m sorry, you just can’t.
Over the past decade, only four receivers under 180 pounds have had a 1,000-yard season (DeSean Jackson, John Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Darnell Mooney). Over that stretch, only twice has such a receiver scored more than seven times in a season. And this is me giving him room to bulk up by 14 pounds! It’s not as if I used some weight limit that he was just under; he’s not close.
Move the goal posts a bit to only include such receivers during their rookie season over that stretch, and it gets ugly. Five touchdowns are the cap for scoring, and Smith is the only one of them to clear 700 yards. For reference, D.J. Moore was WR31 on a per-game basis last season, and he cleared both of those numbers.
The optimist will point to the Texans running nearly 60% of their offensive plays when trailing last season or the fact that Dell has a clear path to work, given the lack of reliable options in this offense. Both of things are true and reasons why Dell could have spike weeks (they invented DFS for a reason), but counting on consistent production is tough.
Those optimistic people, though, won’t stop. They might look at the lightweight receiver list I gave you and note that Dell and Mooney share a birthday … maybe Zodiac signs are a bullet-proof indicator of an outlier? They’re going to cite the growth potential of Stroud as the season goes and that Dell could peak at the right time.
During the latter part of the season, this team only faces slow-paced opponents who do not utilize much man coverage, which is theoretically the best defense for a rookie to overcome.
Verdict
Dell will have his moments as a rookie like he did on Thursday night, but he won’t be a wise fantasy start in any given week. Both of those things can be true and, quite frankly, I believe are a near lock.
Go ahead and roster Dell, I have no issue with that. But banking on him touching your starting lineup means your starting lineup needs some help. And for that, we have a Discord. Hop on in and we will get things sorted out!