Tank Dell shattered expectations for a third-round pick as a rookie for the Houston Texans. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a broken leg.
With sophomore-year leaps increasingly common, should fantasy football managers be investing in Dell? Or does the arrival of Stefon Diggs put a damper on his fantasy projection?
Tank Dell’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 12.3
- Receptions: 60
- Receiving Yards: 901
- Receiving TDs: 8.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Dell This Year?
It’s difficult for NFL teams to keep good players off the field. Entering his rookie season, Dell’s potential for opportunity seemed dire. Nico Collins was entrenched as the WR1, and the Texans had signed both Robert Woods and Noah Brown.
We never root for injuries, but Brown missing Week 2 opened the door for Dell to see the field more. All the rookie did was post 20.2 fantasy points. That was enough. Dell was not going to be put back in the bottle.
It’s easy to be concerned about Dell’s sustainability as a 5’8″, 165-pound WR. Historically, receivers that look like Dell are pigeonholed into being slot guys primarily targeted underneath. They are used as niche pieces, not primary receivers.
But the NFL is changing. More and more receivers are coming into the league looking like Dell and DeVonta Smith, and as the game changes, so must our evaluation tactics as fantasy managers.
There’s nothing wrong with a guy being primarily a slot receiver. That’s not Dell, though. He spent just 22.1% of his time in the slot as a rookie. The fact that Dell can win on the outside is quite impressive.
Even more impressive was Dell’s ability to get open downfield. His 14.3 aDOT (average depth of target) was 12th in the NFL. As a result of his downfield targets, Dell averaged 2.36 yards per route run (14th) and 9.5 yards per target (21st).
The most exciting part of Dell’s profile is that there’s so much room for improvement. Although he was targeted on an impressive 24.9% of his routes run, he only saw a 20.4% target share.
The bad news is I’m not sure we can project Dell’s target share to increase anymore. Initially, I was going to project Collins for over a 25% target share and Dell for a few percentage points lower. That was before the Texans traded for Diggs.
Now, I still have Dell second on this team in target share, but only at 21%, just 2% more than Diggs. And if we’re being candid, it would be far from shocking if Dell wound up third.
I have Dell projected for 76 receptions, 1,101 yards, and nine touchdowns, averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game. Relative to his WR29 ADP, that would be a great result if I am correct.
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I am also kind of an island in my evaluation of Diggs as a rapidly declining talent. It’s important to draft with conviction, but it’s also important not to assume there’s no chance you are wrong.
I could be wrong about Diggs. If I am, if he’s even 70% of prime Diggs, Dell’s ceiling is likely capped as a low WR2.
Diggs’ mere presence is enough for me to actually project Dell to average fewer fantasy points per game than he did last season. Although I am much higher than the PFN consensus projection, both sets of projections have Dell taking a step back in the fantasy production department.