The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Houston Texans WR Tank Dell’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Dell be an outlier at his size in Year 1, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Tank Dell’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Targeting teams with a ton of ambiguity on the depth chart allows fantasy football managers to find some unexpected value on draft day.
Although the team remains in the early portion of its franchise reset, Dell is a player quickly growing in popularity, given not only his college success but his hot start over the summer.
No player in college football had more receiving yards than Dell in 2022. Recording 108 receptions (second) on 152 targets (fourth), Dell put up 1,399 yards and also led the nation in receiving touchdowns with 17 at the University of Houston.
Primarily a slot receiver with 67% of his reps coming with an inside alignment, Dell was 15th in the nation amongst receivers with 100 or more targets with a 2.54 YPRR and an 11.6 aDOT.
With 90+ receiving yards in eight of his 14 games, Dell built off what was already an impressive career following a 91-of-139 receiving season in 2021, where he posted 1,328 yards and 12 TDs.
Dell Has Been an Early Standout in Camp, According to Coaches
With Houston drafting C.J. Stroud, the No. 1 spot on the WR depth chart appears completely wide open. Having served as the No. 1 for the last few years, mainly after DeAndre Hopkins was traded, Brandin Cooks joined the Dallas Cowboys, and the Texans enter the season with Dell competing with Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and John Metchie III at receiver.
Although he stands 5’8″ and 165 pounds, Dell’s stock is soaring, especially after it came out that Stroud was an advocate for the Texans to draft Dell at pick No. 69, as the two had immediate chemistry. Even his offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, has been hyping up the rookie.
“Tank comes from a very different offense at Houston. Very productive, efficient, but it’s just a different style to what we’re really doing here,” Slowik said. “There’s a bit of a learning curve, and when he’s out on the field, he doesn’t blink. I don’t think anyone has noticed how big of a leap it is because he’s been on it and been working.”
Several Hurdles Remain Ahead of Dell Before He Can Become a Reliable Fantasy Football Asset
While Dell was highly productive in college, his size is a significant concern. According to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Dell was in the 45th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage and 45th against zone but excelled against press coverage with an 83rd percentile ranking.
This doesn’t surprise me, given that Dell has one of the quickest release packages in this class, and getting your hands on him is nearly impossible. Dell can and will be lethal after the catch if he gets a clean release.
Still, I am concerned that he will be a low-volume receiver and need to be used vertically in the slot to maximize his upside on a target base while keeping him out of contested-catch situations.
At this point, Collins is almost the more under-the-radar player despite him having just a far better shot at being the No.1 than Dell. Collins also has better size than every other Texans WR, standing 6’4″ and 215 pounds.
I don’t expect Houston to be a good team, but they could have a better offense than given credit due to all the upgrades.
But how that will look for fantasy football remains an important question, as I don’t see how Houston will be able to support the upside of someone like Dell, along with multiple other receivers — plus Dalton Schultz at tight end — and keep a balanced attack with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary in the backfield.
My initial projections have Dell hauling in around 45 receptions on approximately 70 targets for 550 yards with three touchdowns.
Should You Draft Tank Dell This Year?
Fantasy managers are hesitant to draft Texans players. They were the least rostered team last year, and it would be surprising if this holds again in 2023. Because of this, we see suppressed ADPs that could become values — so long as you throw your dart and land on the right player.
Dell is currently being drafted as the WR78 on Underdog Fantasy, while our PFN Consensus Rankings place him at WR96.
No Offense Has More Questions for Fantasy Than the Texans in 2023
In most cases, I don’t see myself targeting a Texans receiver as more than bench depth in fantasy football drafts. There is so much ambiguity here that the odds of getting it right on which player to start will be dependent on whoever scores the fluky touchdown rather than consistent target volume.
Of the Texans receivers, Collins is the likeliest to break out and is probably the safest selection you can make, as I feel comfortable locking him into the No. 1 role.
I’m less concerned about his overall volume than I am with Woods staying healthy at his age or with Metchie and Dell. As the WR53 of the board, Collins is the cheapest No. 1 receiver you can draft this year.
Much of Dell’s upside depends on where Metchie is after missing the 2022 season. Metchie was a second-round pick in 2022 (No. 44) after posting over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns on 96 receptions for the Crimson Tide following the departures of DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle.
Dell is not necessarily a player I will draft in most 12-team fantasy football leagues, but I will be watching early to see his role progress on the Texans.
There is undoubtedly a path where he becomes a priority waiver wire player over the first three weeks, and if you think that’s the case, take him with your last pick and avoid the risk of losing out on him during waivers. Just know Dell might be the first player you drop for the first breakout waiver wire option in the 2023 fantasy football season.
