The Houston Texans‘ receiver room felt like a complete mystery heading into last season. After C.J. Stroud outperformed the expectations of even the most optimistic fans, Tank Dell and Nico Collins emerged as legitimate fantasy football producers in 2023.
After the team traded for Stefon Diggs this offseason, what is the fantasy outlook for Dell heading into his second season in the NFL?
Should You Select Tank Dell at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: No. 62 Overall (WR29)
- Breakout Rookie Season: Dell’s rookie campaign was a major success despite ending prematurely due to injury. He tallied 47 receptions for 709 receiving yards and seven TDs on 75 targets in just 11 games, finishing as the WR39 in full-PPR formats. However, on a points-per-game basis, Dell ranked as the WR19 with 15 points per game, and in games where he played over 60% of snaps, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game.
- Addition of Stefon Diggs: The Texans’ trade for Stefon Diggs this offseason complicates Dell’s fantasy outlook. Since 2020, only Davante Adams has seen more targets than Diggs, which could lead to a reduced target share for Dell. Diggs’ ability to get open at all three levels and his versatility in formations may make him the team’s primary target, potentially limiting Dell’s opportunities.
- Competition in the Receiving Corps: Nico Collins also had a breakout year in 2023 with 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight TDs. With both Collins and Diggs likely to command a significant target share, Dell’s fantasy ceiling may be capped, even with an exciting young quarterback like Stroud under center.
- Role and Durability Concerns: Despite Dell’s smaller frame (5’10”, 165 pounds), he lined up in the slot just 22% of the time, often serving as a vertical threat. His average depth of target (14.3 yards) and yards per route run (2.36) were impressive, ranking 12th and 14th among WRs, respectively. However, Dell’s durability is a concern, having missed six games in his rookie year and dealing with a leg wound from a shooting incident earlier this year.
- ADP Analysis: Dell’s current ADP is No. 62 overall, making him the WR29 off the board. He is being selected ahead of Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, and Rashee Rice. As the cheapest of the top three Texans WRs, Dell is an intriguing option in the early sixth round, especially for those looking to get a share of the Houston passing game at a relatively low cost.
- Final Verdict: Dell’s flashes of brilliance in his rookie year make him an exciting fantasy prospect. However, with the addition of Diggs and the presence of Collins, Dell may be better suited as a solid WR3 or Flex option with upside, rather than a surefire fantasy starter. His ADP in the sixth round feels appropriate given the potential for both big plays and the challenges of a crowded receiving corps.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Tank Dell
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
66) C.J. Stroud, QB | Houston Texans
67) Dalton Kincaid, TE | Buffalo Bills
68) Keenan Allen, WR | Chicago Bears
69) Joe Burrow, QB | Cincinnati Bengals
70) Evan Engram, TE | Jacksonville Jaguars
71) Tank Dell, WR | Houston Texans
72) Jonathon Brooks, RB | Carolina Panthers
73) George Pickens, WR | Pittsburgh Steelers
74) Kyler Murray, QB | Arizona Cardinals
75) Brian Robinson Jr., RB | Washington Commanders
76) Tyjae Spears, RB | Tennessee Titans
Tank Dell’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Dell’s rookie campaign may have come to a premature end due to injury, but there is no way that his first year in the NFL can be seen as anything but a major success.
Dell’s 47 receptions for 709 receiving yards and seven TDs on 75 targets in just 11 games played flashed the potential for a big-time fantasy producer.
Dell’s WR39 finish in full-PPR formats last year requires a bit more context. Dell was actually the WR19 on a points-per-game basis at 15. If you filter his numbers down to the eight games where he saw north of 60% of the offensive snaps, Dell averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which puts him in the same range as Puka Nacua and just below Justin Jefferson.
This reasonably got fantasy managers very excited about his fantasy outlook heading into his sophomore campaign. Unfortunately for those projecting a big jump in fantasy production for Dell in 2024, the team traded for Diggs this offseason to throw a major curveball into this offense.
Since 2020, only Davante Adams has seen more targets than Diggs in the NFL. This creates a potential target share concern for Dell, given Diggs’ ability to get open on all three levels of the field, and he provides the formation versatility to potentially lead the team in targets in his first year in Houston.
Not to mention, Collins also had a breakout campaign with 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight TDs on 109 targets. There is a strong case to be made that it will be difficult for even a player with as exciting an outlook as Stroud to make three receivers top-24 fantasy producers in the same offense.
The addition of Diggs should help raise the production floor of Stroud and the Texans offense as a whole, but it may not be a great thing for Dell’s usage this season.
Despite his smaller frame at 5’10”, 165 pounds, Dell lined up in the slot 22% of the time, which feels like a lower rate than you would expect for a player his size.
Yet, his average depth of target of 14.3 yards — which was the 12th highest at the WR position last year — suggests he can be an effective vertical threat operating outside or in the slot. His 2.36 yards per route run was also a great mark, which ranked 14th amongst qualified WRs.
Yet, Dell’s durability is a concern considering he missed six games his first year in the NFL. Additionally, Dell suffered a leg wound suffered a gun shooting incident earlier this calendar year but was on the field for OTAs.
Is Dell a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Dell’s ADP is No. 62 overall as the WR29 off the board. He is being selected ahead of Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, and Rashee Rice.
An early sixth round pick makes Dell the cheapest Texans’ WR to acquire of the top three options in the Houston passing game a full two rounds in fantasy drafts.
Dell may fall into the category of a better real-life football player than a fantasy producer in this Houston offense, but his flashes of great production his rookie year make him the most inexpensive way to get a share of this Texans’ passing attack in 2024.
