Houston Texans WR Tank Dell was on pace for an incredible season before a broken leg ended it prematurely. With the injury to be fully behind him well ahead of training camp, how bullish should fantasy football managers be about Dell in dynasty leagues?
Tank Dell’s Dynasty Outlook
Dell may have been drafted on Day 2, but third-round picks do not hit as often as second-round picks. Specifically, as a rookie, Dell wasn’t supposed to be this good. A decade from now, we’re going to look back at the 2023 rookie wide receiver class in the same way we now view the vaunted 2014 class.
The 2014 class saw all of its hits occur in the first two rounds. The 2023 class looks like it has at least two smashes from Round 3 or later, one of which is Dell.
Typically, even when Round 3 WRs do pan out, it takes a little more time. What makes Dell so impressive is how quickly he was able to emerge.
Dell entered the season buried on the Texans’ depth chart. As a third-round rookie behind Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Noah Brown — on an offense that was supposed to be terrible — the odds were against Dell making any sort of fantasy impact.
It’s impossible to say what might have happened had everyone stayed healthy, but that’s football. Players get hurt, and that opens the door for other players to shine.
In Week 2, Brown went down with an injury, bumping Dell up to the WR3 role. That was all he needed from the team. His talent took over from there.
Players don’t do what Dell did as a rookie if they aren’t really good at football. In his second career game, his first in a more prominent role, he caught seven of 10 targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. The only thing that stopped him from producing was no longer being able to play football.
MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024
Dell was well on pace for a 1,000-yard season when he broke his leg in Week 13. He finished his rookie year with 47 catches for 709 yards and seven touchdowns in just 10 games (I’m not counting his final game when he played just 13 snaps).
The threshold we look for from rookie wide receivers is roughly 500 receiving yards. Regardless of the reason, when rookie receivers don’t get there, their odds of producing at even a reasonable level in the NFL plummet.
Dell is a great example of why we don’t make excuses for injured players. Even with missing seven games, Dell got there with ease.
He was immensely productive in college, improving each of his seasons. Thus, it’s no surprise to see him continue to get better in the NFL.
As a rookie, Dell averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game despite seeing just a 20.4% target share. What he lacked in volume, he made up for in efficiency.
It’s admittedly surprising to see a guy of Dell’s stature be such an effective downfield threat. At 5’8″ and 165 pounds, Dell profiles as a check-down slot guy. Instead, Dell’s 2.36 yards per route run was 14th-best in the league. He commanded targets on 24.9% of his routes run (20th), and his 14.3 aDOT (average depth of target) was 12th in the NFL.
Dell’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Dell land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Dell lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Justin Jefferson | MIN
2) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
5) Puka Nacua | LAR
6) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
7) Tyreek Hill | MIA
8) A.J. Brown | PHI
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) DK Metcalf | SEA
13) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
14) DeVonta Smith | PHI
15) Drake London | ATL
16) Jordan Addison | MIN
17) DJ Moore | CHI
18) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
19) Tank Dell | HOU
20) Nico Collins | HOU
21) Rashee Rice | KC
22) Tee Higgins | CIN
23) Zay Flowers | BAL
24) Deebo Samuel | SF
Should You Trade Dell in Dynasty?
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Nothing about Dell’s rookie year looks like a fluke. The only knock on him is he was an older prospect. At 24 years old, Dell is five months older than Ja’Marr Chase, who is entering his fourth season. It’s worth noting, but it’s still just a minor concern. Dell being an older prospect is more of a problem for the likelihood that he ends up being productive entering the league. We no longer have to worry about that.
We care more about talent than situations in dynasty, but it never hurts when the situation is already good. The Texans are a team on the rise. Dell is going to play at least three more years with C.J. Stroud. Given that Stroud specifically asked the Texans to draft Dell, I would imagine they stay together for the majority of Dell’s career.
I’m not afraid to say Stroud is already one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s also nowhere near as good as he will be when he hits his prime.
MORE: Should You Move Nico Collins, Devin Singletary, and Dalton Schultz in Dynasty?
Stroud is every bit capable of being the type of quarterback who supports two fantasy WR1s at some point. In the right circumstances, he has the skill set to support three fantasy-relevant receivers.
Dell was the overall WR18 as a rookie. His ceiling is temporarily a bit capped by sharing a field with Collins, but getting mid-to-high WR2 production is perfectly fine. I also wouldn’t rule out Dell out-targeting Collins as soon as this season.
If you savvily snagged Dell in the second or third round of your dynasty rookie draft last season, enjoy the fruits of your labor. Of course, any player is worth trading for the right price, but there’s no reason to be actively looking to move Dell.
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