The Tampa Bay Buccaneers let their control of the NFC South slip last week with a Sunday Night Football loss against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16. However, with their dominant win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday and the Atlanta Falcons’ loss to the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football, Tampa Bay is in a great position to win the division.
Let’s examine the Buccaneers’ current playoff picture and then, using the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor, break down their playoff scenarios over the final two weeks.
What is the Current Tampa Bay Buccaneers Playoff Picture?
After defeating the Panthers, the 9-7 Buccaneers are in fourth place in the NFC standings. However, the Falcons won both meetings between the two earlier this year, so they hold the tiebreaker over the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay must finish with a better record than Atlanta.
Since the Falcons lost on Sunday Night Football against the Commanders, the Bucs now control their own destiny. With a win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 18, Tampa Bay win will the division.
Tampa Bay also remains in contention for the No. 3 seed. They are just one game behind the Los Angeles Rams (10-6) and have a superior conference record. Therefore, if the Buccaneers win the division and end up tied with the Rams (NFC West winners) in terms of winning percentage, they would take the No. 3 seed.
It’s worth noting that the Bucs cannot earn an NFC Wild Card spot, so their only path to the playoffs is by winning the NFC South.
What Did the Bucs’ Week 17 Win Mean for Their Playoff Scenarios?
Tampa Bay’s win over Carolina (and the Falcons’ loss) put the Buccaneers in a terrific position.
Since the Falcons lost on Sunday Night Football, the Buccaneers now control their own destiny in Week 18. They are a game ahead of the Falcons and know that a tie or a win against the Saints in Week 18 will clinch the division.
However, if the Bucs lose next week, then the Falcons would take the division if they defeat the Panthers. Based on their two head-to-head losses earlier in the season, the Buccaneers need to finish at least a half-game ahead of the Falcons, or they will lose the division.
The Falcons could still win the division by defeating the Panthers in Week 18 and hoping for a Bucs’ loss to the Saints.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.