Normally, entering Week 14 at 5-7 would make it tough in terms of a team’s playoff chances. But the nature of the 2023 NFL season has meant that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bizarrely still have their future in their own hands. The Buccaneers enter this week just one game back on both the NFC South lead and the NFC Wild Card spots, with a chance to move themselves into a playoff spot on Sunday.
With the assistance of the free PFN NFL playoff predictor, let’s examine the playoff scenarios for the Buccaneers in Week 14 and what their chances are of going to the postseason this year.
1 p.m. ET Games Update
Saints (6-7) defeated Panthers (1-12)
Buccaneers (6-7) defeated Falcons (6-7)
Tampa Bay now leads the NFC South after Week 14
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
4 p.m. ET Games Update
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
SNF Game Update
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
What Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances and Scenarios in 2023?
As things stand entering Week 14, the Buccaneers’ playoff chances sit at 25.9% according to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The Buccaneers are also within a shout of winning the NFC South, with the FPI giving them a 20.8% chance of winning the division this season. Although given their playoff scenarios this week, that percentage feels on the low side.
The best-case playoff scenario for the Buccaneers this week would see them finish the week atop the division thanks to an advantage in NFL playoff tiebreakers over the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.
What makes it even better for Tampa Bay is that the only thing they need to happen is a victory over the Falcons, albeit not as easy as it sounds on the road.
If the Buccaneers beat the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, both teams will be sitting with a 6-7 record overall and a 3-1 record within the division. Additionally, they will have split their two head-to-head matchups after the Falcons won 16-13 in Tampa Bay back in Week 7.
However, the Buccaneers will top the division thanks to a superior record in games against common opponents. The Buccaneers have a 5-3 record against those opponents, compared to a 4-4 record for the Falcons. Therefore, if the Buccaneers back up a Week 14 victory over the Falcons by going 4-0, nothing Atlanta can do will prevent them from winning the division.
Ideally, the Buccaneers would also like the Saints to lose to the Carolina Panthers in Week 14. That would drop the Saints one game behind the Buccaneers and mean that the Saints cannot automatically jump them if they win their Week 17 clash in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers defeated the Saints 26-9 in Week 4, so at best the Saints can tie up the head-to-head tiebreakers.
MORE: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart
Of course, a win in Week 14 does not mean the Buccaneers can relax. A win puts them in control of the division but with all three teams potentially tied at 6-7 with four games to play, there remains no room for error. Tampa Bay will need to at least match the record of the Falcons and Saints in those final four weeks and, even then, would still need tiebreakers on their side.
Meanwhile, a loss for the Buccaneers in Week 14 is almost as bad as it gets for their playoff scenarios in terms of the division. Losing to the Falcons would drop them two games behind Atlanta with four to play.
Additionally, the Falcons would have won both head-to-head matchups between the two teams. That would essentially put the Falcons 2.5 games ahead of the Buccaneers, which would require Tampa Bay to better Atlanta’s record by 2.5 games in the final four weeks.
The Buccaneers would still have a chance to make the playoffs via the Wild Card route if they lose this week. However, sitting at 5-8 would mean they would almost need to be perfect down the stretch to have a chance of taking one of those Wild Card spots. There is also no guarantee that 9-8 would be enough to secure a spot this season with so many teams still in the mix.
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
