As we move deeper into the second half of the 2024 NFL season, the postseason starts to come into view.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers snapped a four-game losing streak with a dominant Week 12 win against the New York Giants and got back to .500 in Week 13 with a thrilling overtime win against the Carolina Panthers.
Let’s look at the Buccaneers’ playoff odds and various scenarios.
Can the Buccaneers Make the Playoffs?
Heading into Week 14, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-6 and now have a 63.1% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a <0.1% chance for the first seed, a 0.3% chance for the second seed, a 15.3% chance for the third seed, a 43.2% chance for the fourth seed, a <0.1% chance for the fifth seed, a 0.4% chance for the sixth seed, and a 3.9% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Buccaneers Win the NFC South?
Here’s what the NFC South race looks like heading into Week 14:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 58.8% chance to win the NFC South.
- The Atlanta Falcons have a 37.9% chance to win the NFC South.
- The New Orleans Saints have a 3.1% chance to win the NFC South.
- The Carolina Panthers have a 0.2% chance to win the NFC South.
Current NFC South Standings
- Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
- New Orleans Saints (4-8)
- Carolina Panthers (3-9)
NFC Playoff Race | Week 16
1. Detroit Lions (13-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)
In The Hunt
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)
9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-8)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10)
14. Chicago Bears (4-11)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
16. New York Giants (2-13)
Buccaneers’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 13
Can the Bucs win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor currently projects that Tampa Bay has a 2.1% chance to win it all.
Buccaneers’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 14: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 15: at Los Angeles Chargers
- Week 16: at Dallas Cowboys
- Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers
- Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints
What PFN Predicted for the Buccaneers at Panthers Matchup
The NFC South race is a lot more interesting following a Tampa Bay win last week, coupled with back-to-back losses from the Atlanta Falcons. With the easiest remaining strength of schedule, the Bucs are a real threat to steal the division despite losing the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Falcons.
The matchup for the Bucs’ offense against the Panthers’ defense is one of the largest mismatches of the week. PFN’s Power Rankings+, which account for various situational EPA and success rate metrics, have Tampa Bay with the third-ranked offense and Carolina with the 32nd-ranked defense. Only the lowly New York Giants have failed to score more than 21 points on the Panthers this season.
Baker Mayfield has excelled when kept clean this year, throwing a league-high 23 touchdowns and ranking sixth in passer rating in that situation. Now he gets to face a Panthers defense that ranks last in pressure rate and 31st in sack rate. With the prospect of clean pockets throughout the game, Mayfield should be able to cook.
On the other side, Bryce Young has looked better since his early-season benching. Young has been a roughly neutral quarterback since returning to the starting lineup in Week 8, averaging -0.02 EPA per play. That doesn’t sound like much, but his career EPA per play was a calamitous -0.24 up to that point.
One key will be whether Young can maintain his reasonably solid play when blitzed. Since Week 8, he’s averaged 0.12 EPA per play when blitzed. Last week vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, Young threw for 125 yards and averaged a robust 9.6 yards per attempt when blitzed. Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate of any defense, a signature of Todd Bowles’ units.
Young’s improved play has made the Panthers a more credible opponent than they’ve been over the past two seasons. That said, the Bucs should be able to pile up enough points to make a Carolina upset a difficult proposition.
PFN Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 21