The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fantasy preview takes a look at RB Rachaad White, while the Houston Texans outlook attempts to make sense of the fantasy football egg the team laid last week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans
- Spread: Texans -2.5
- Total: 40
- Buccaneers implied points: 18.8
- Texans implied points: 21.3
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: Last week looked like a smash spot against the Panthers, and, well, if you played Stroud in any capacity, I don’t need to reopen that wound and tell you how it went.
Stroud does have a rushing score and multiple passing touchdowns in five of his past six games, and he matched a season-best last week by completing two-thirds of his passes. So, all is not.
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You’ve come this far in this article, so it’s time to reward you with your weird stat of the week.
72.2% of Texan yards have been gained through the air. Meanwhile, 72.2% of yards against the Buccaneers have come through the air.
Those are both top-seven rates in the league, so buckle up. It’s a brutal week for the QB position, so you might be starting Stroud whether you like it or not. Still, you have some numbers moving in your direction, and you get the Soppe “Stamp of Approval.”
Running Backs
Rachaad White: It’s almost never pretty with White, but it’s basically always productive. He doesn’t have a carry gaining more than 15 yards this season (92 rush attempts), but with at least three grabs in six straight (he has caught all 13 targets over the past two weeks), the floor is too high to bench White in this era of useless committees.
The Texans have a low opponent aDOT due to their front four creating pressure — a defensive strength that ties in with what White does well. The lack of scoring equity significantly caps his ceiling, but until further notice, his floor in this offense makes him a worthy fantasy starter in all (half or full) PPR leagues.
Dameon Pierce: This man can’t catch a break. Not only is he running behind a struggling line, but he’s also not getting opportunities in the passing game (consecutive games without a target). When he does do something right, it gets wiped off the scoreboard (ruled down inside the inch-yard line last week).
This is trending toward a full-blown committee — Pierce held a 25-23 snap edge over Devin Singletary. The argument could be made that, for fantasy purposes, it already is a 50/50 split based on the usage in the passing game.
Pierce is averaging 3.0 yards per carry this season and went through October without scoring. He’s in the “break glass in case of emergency” tier at the position — not a good look after an encouraging rookie season.
Devin Singletary: Despite being out-snapped last week by Pierce, Singletary held the slight edge in routes run, which might be the cleanest path to upside, given the play of this offensive line.
Singletary should be rostered due to his regular usage, but he’s not going to rank any higher than options like Atlanta Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier or Baltimore Ravens QB Justice Hill types. That’s outside of my top 30 at the position.
Wide Receivers
Mike Evans: Being held under 50 receiving yards in three of four games in a low-octane offense would be cause for concern in most situations, but Evans’ ability to find pay dirt (TD in five of seven games this season) continues to buoy his value.
Still, there is a little smoke and mirrors to his campaign. He has a 66.7% catch rate this season without a 25-yard catch in four of five games. The floor is lower for Evans than those he ranks around due to his reliance on scoring, but his skill set matches up well with what Mayfield does. This keeps him inside my top 20 at the position.
Chris Godwin: For the fourth straight game, Godwin was able to produce a chunk play, and he even found the end zone for the first time this season. It was clear that the Bucs wanted to get him going early on, but with just one catch in the second half, their commitment to him didn’t last.
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Could he have caught the Hail Mary at the end of last week and given you an extra 12 points? Yes, but he didn’t. At the end of the day, Godwin has registered 51-66 receiving yards in the majority of his games this season and possesses a narrow range of outcome options.
Will you win your week because of a Godwin explosion? It’s unlikely, but he’s just as rarely going to tank your matchup. That holds value in this age of sporadic production. In this contest, Godwin remains what he has been all season for me: a low-end WR2 that is a good bet for 8-10 fantasy points.
Nico Collins: I laid out the case above for why this could be a reasonable bounce-back spot for the Texans’ pass game, and that starts with Collins. He’s the unquestioned WR1 in this offense, but that doesn’t mean consistent production. Per the Week 9 Cheat Sheet, the receiver has registered three games under 40 yards and four games of 80+ yards (two over 145 yards).
I trust the volume to rebound as Stroud gets back on track, and that should land Collins comfortably inside of fantasy lineups this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed opposing WR1s to catch 27 of 34 targets (79.4%) over the past three weeks.
Tank Dell: Robert Woods (foot) is expected to miss the next week or two, which opens up about 7.2 targets. Could Dell be the one who benefits most from that? It’s certainly possible, especially with the concussion seemingly a thing of the past. He led Texans WRs in snaps and routes in Week 8.
Dell is unlikely to be a consistent producer, but he has enough upside to be on your Flex radar. He has multiple carries in each of his past three games — something that points to their desire to get his hands on the ball.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: After scoring in three straight games, Schultz averaged one yard per target in an underwhelming performance.
On the bright side, he did post an 81.5% route participation in an offense that still does skew more toward the pass than the run. For me, that role is enough to put him in the low-end TE1 conversation with Atlanta Falcon Kyle Pitts and Arizona Cardinal Trey McBride.
The line between starting option and waiver wire fodder is borderline translucent. I’m willing to give him one more week in my lineup.
Should You Start Tank Dell or Marquise Brown?
I’ve been out on Dell for most of this season, and I remain that he will be a sporadic producer, but I have this game projected to go well over the point total. That sort of environment is favorable for a dart throw like Dell.
“Hollywood” Brown may be the WR1 in his offense, but role alone doesn’t win you fantasy matchups. QB Clayton Tune is under center for the Cardinals this week against the Cleveland Browns. If “Clayton Tune” or “vs. Browns” is the situation for one of your fantasy receivers, you’re in trouble. If BOTH are a part of the equation, run.
Should You Start Chris Godwin or Jakobi Meyers?
Most weeks this season, I’ve had Meyers higher due to the scoring equity, but without Las Vegas Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo, I’m pivoting.
As I said, I think this Bucs/Texans game surprises in terms of points scored (both in fantasy and reality), which makes Godwin a viable WR2 with a nice floor.
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