Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson joined the team midway through last season, and was immediately thrust into the fire as a key part of the passing game. With a full offseason to really learn the playbook, Hockenson’s ceiling is even higher this year. Should fantasy football managers draft Hockenson at his ADP this season?
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T.J. Hockenson’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Fantasy managers are all abuzz about Hockenson’s prospects with a full season on the Vikings. The 26-year-old tight end is super athletic, has improved every year of his career, and his coming off a strong finish after getting traded from the Detroit Lions.
After an unsurprisingly unimpactful rookie season, Hockenson has averaged double-digit fantasy points in each of his past three years. He went from 11.0 PPR fantasy points per game in 2020 to 12.1 in 2021 to 12.7 in 2022.
Specifically, the excitement stems from the notion that Hockenson could be the second option opposite Justin Jefferson in what has long been a consolidated Vikings passing game.
A big reason fantasy managers are excited about Hockenson is because of vividness bias. They vividly remember Hockenson smashing for 35.9 fantasy points in Week 16, the most important week of the fantasy season. As a result, the narrative has been created that Hockenson was this different player after he got traded to the Vikings.
In six games with the Lions, Hockenson averaged 12.45 ppg. In 11 games with the Vikings, Hockenson averaged 12.97 ppg. Now, to be fair, his targets per game did increase from 6.5 to 8.2. He also caught 1.9 more balls per game. But his fantasy ppg didn’t increase all that much.
Is Hockenson a Good Fantasy Pick?
For Hockenson to justify his lofty TE3 ranking and No. 42 overall ADP, 13 ppg isn’t enough. Those numbers would still very much put him in overall TE2 contention behind Travis Kelce, but they aren’t needle-moving numbers. We are going to need more progression from Hockenson to justify taking him 10 rounds ahead of a punt tight end.
Hockenson is pretty much universally ranked as the TE3. That’s where I have him, and that’s where he lands in our PFN consensus rankings.
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football Player Outlooks
I am fine drafting Hockenson as the third TE off the board. I am not fine taking him in the fourth round of fantasy drafts. There are just too many players at other positions that I prefer.
Furthermore, Hockenson is dealing with some sort of back injury. It’s being described as stiffness, but it was enough to hold him out of practice recently. It’s probably nothing, but for a guy that I am already fading due to price, it’s just another reason to bypass Hockenson for a player with more upside.
If you are a believer in Hockenson and think he can ascend to the next level, averaging 14-15 ppg, then by all means, draft him at his ADP. I do not fall into that camp. As a result, I don’t anticipate rostering much (read: any) Hockenson this season.