There’s always action in the NFL. Even with no games being played, fantasy football values shift. Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson is coming off his best season, having improved every year of his career.
Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the offseason?
T.J. Hockenson’s Dynasty Outlook
Hockenson is a great example of why the tight end position is so different than every other in fantasy. The Sam LaPortas of the world are major outliers. Most tight ends struggle as rookies, and many take multiple years before they emerge into reliable fantasy assets.
Josh Dobbs shakes off a dreadful start and connects with T.J. Hockenson to give the #Vikings their first lead of the game❕pic.twitter.com/30JsDLsBdD
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 28, 2023
Minnesota’s tight end became fantasy-relevant in his second season but only averaged 11.0 fantasy points per game. While that’s good for the position, it doesn’t move the needle at all for fantasy managers.
Hockenson has improved every year of his career. In his third season, he averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game. That ticked up to 12.7 in his fourth year. It was only this past season that he truly ascended into the ranks of the difference-makers, averaging 14.6 points per game and finishing as the TE2.
There’s no denying Hockenson’s 2023 season was impressive. He caught 95 passes for 960 yards and five touchdowns. His 24.3% target share led the league.
By many measures, Hockenson was an elite performer. His 1.94 yards per route run was fifth in the NFL, and his 25.6% targets-per-route-run rate was second, evidencing his ability to command targets when running routes.
It’s very easy to say Hockenson took the leap in 2023 and is now poised to be a 14+ ppg tight end until he’s no longer good at football. But there’s a bit more to it than that.
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In reality, Hockenson was the same guy this season he’s been for the past two. He averaged 12.5 for eight games last season. In his other seven games, he averaged 17.3 points per game. What was the difference? The latter number came without Justin Jefferson.
If it’s any consolation, Hockenson’s numbers didn’t take a hit at all after Kirk Cousins went down. He was just as productive with as without him. That’s an important fact because there’s a very real chance Hockenson has already caught his last pass from Cousins.
Hockenson’s Dynasty Ranking
Jason Katz’s Top 25 Dynasty TE Rankings
1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) Mark Andrews | BAL
4) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
5) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
6) Travis Kelce | KC
7) George Kittle | SF
8) David Njoku | CLE
9) Evan Engram | JAX
10) Jake Ferguson | DAL
11) Dallas Goedert | PHI
12) Kyle Pitts | ATL
13) Cole Kmet | CHI
14) Pat Freiermuth | PIT
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL
16) Michael Mayer | LV
17) Tucker Kraft | GB
18) Dalton Schultz | HOU
19) Luke Musgrave | GB
20) Darren Waller | NYG
21) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN
22) Cade Otton | TB
23) Hunter Henry | NE
24) Juwan Johnson | NO
25) Gerald Everett | LAC
Should You Trade Hockenson in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Hockenson? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
Hockenson is entering his age-27 season. He is firmly in his prime, and tight ends can remain there until their early 30s. Hockenson looks like the type of player who can go until his mid-30s if he wants to.
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The state of the tight end position is improving. The 2023 season gave us multiple rookies that should remain fantasy-relevant for a long time, as well as a couple of non-rookies who broke out. But unless you’re trading Hockenson for one of those guys, you’re better off considering your TE problem solved.
The last thing a fantasy manager wants is a great dynasty team held back by having to start a carousel of tight ends that only average 6-8 points per game.
Even if Hockenson reverts to the 11-13 points per game he’s been in the past, that’s still much better than most alternatives.
I would be remiss to not mention Hockenson’s knee and the fact that he just underwent ACL repair surgery on Jan. 29. However, given his age and talent profile, missing half of the 2024 season is not enough to impact Hockenson’s dynasty value. Hang onto him if you’ve got him.
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