The best way to describe the 2023 NFL season might be “top-heavy.” With so many teams settling around the middle of the NFL standings, it’s difficult to imagine many clubs hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Paradise, Nev., in February.
The San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles are the class of the NFC, and no observer would be surprised if either of those three clubs walked away with the title. The NFC North-leading Detroit Lions have struggled lately, but they’re in the Super Bowl mix, too.
The Baltimore Ravens currently hold the top seed in the AFC playoff race, but the other division leaders are reeling. The Miami Dolphins gave away their Monday night game to the Tennessee Titans, QB Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are still angry at Sunday’s officiating, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are led by a hobbled QB Trevor Lawrence.
Still, all eight clubs look like obvious Super Bowl contenders. The rest of the league? Not so much.
Who might be the other contenders if one of the NFL’s golden children does not win Super Bowl LVIII? Let’s look at the viable options and determine which other clubs could be in the mix.
Surprise Super Bowl Contenders | AFC
Cleveland Browns
Why Cleveland could win SB58: Elite defense and QB Joe Flacco
The Cleveland Browns’ defense has struggled lately, allowing at least 27 points in four of the club’s last five games. But still, the unit ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency by a relatively wide margin, indicative of how dominant EDGE Myles Garrett and Co. were earlier in the season.
Add Flacco — who’s posted five touchdowns and two interceptions over the past two weeks while giving Cleveland the best QB play it’s had all year — and the Browns are in the Super Bowl conversation.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Why Pittsburgh could win SB58: HC Mike Tomlin’s magic
The Pittsburgh Steelers don’t look like anyone’s idea of a Super Bowl team after losing to the New England Patriots last Thursday night. With QB Mitch Trubisky starting for the injured Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh doesn’t figure to rebound any time soon. If the Steelers can sneak into the postseason and make a run, the credit must go to Tomlin.
Indianapolis Colts
Why Indianapolis could win SB58: RB Jonathan Taylor returns and takes over
The Indianapolis Colts’ playoff chances took a hit when they fell to the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Colts can still get into the dance. While they might have been more exciting if rookie QB Anthony Richardson were still under center, Taylor’s potential return from a thumb injury offers some hope for Indy.
Still, it would take a dominant RB performance — plus contributions from backup QB Gardner Minshew II — for the Colts to win the Super Bowl.
Houston Texans
Why Houston could win SB58: QB C.J. Stroud
While Stroud is currently in the NFL’s concussion protocol, he’s the runaway favorite for Offensive Rooke of the Year and has looked far more capable than your average rookie quarterback. Losing WR Tank Dell for the season is tough, but Stroud’s capacity to create explosive plays and conduct late-game comebacks can’t be understated.
Denver Broncos
Why Denver could win SB58: HC Sean Payton and QB Russell Wilson have been here before
The Denver Broncos’ turnaround has been remarkable. They’ve won six of seven since falling to 1-5, and their defense hasn’t allowed more than 22 points during that stretch. If DC Vance Joseph’s unit can continue to produce, Payton and Wilson have the Super Bowl experience to guide Denver through a playoff run.
Cincinnati Bengals
Why Cincinnati could win SB58: QB Jake Browning equals Nick Foles?
While the Cincinnati Bengals’ season appeared to be all but over when QB Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending wrist injury, Browning has been among the NFL’s most effective quarterbacks over the past two weeks.
Sure, Browning could turn back into a pumpkin at any time. But with WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins catching passes and RBs Joe Mixon and Chase Brown forming a thunder-and-lightning backfield, Browning doesn’t need to be a hero.
Buffalo Bills
Why Buffalo could win SB58: QB Josh Allen
The Buffalo Bills saved their season with a close win over the Chiefs on Sunday, and no team wants to face Buffalo in the playoffs. While their defense has struggled, Allen is still in the MVP conversation, despite his team’s struggles.
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Allen trails only San Francisco QB Brock Purdy and Dallas QB Dak Prescott in QBR (70.6) and ranks fourth in EPA per play (0.209) behind Purdy, Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa. Clearly, he can put the Bills on his back — just like he’s been doing all season.
Surprise Super Bowl Contenders | NFC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Why Tampa could win SB58: Offensive weaponry
Although it’s hard to imagine any team from the woeful NFC South winning the Super Bowl, at least one team from this division has to make the playoffs. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the best shot (42.6%) after their Week 14 win over the Atlanta Falcons.
QB Baker Mayfield has revitalized his career in Tampa Bay, and his connection with WR Mike Evans (62-1,020-10) has been a season-long storyline. Mayfield doesn’t have to be a superstar when he has Evans, WR Chris Godwin, and RB Rachaad White at his disposal.
New Orleans Saints
Why New Orleans could win SB58: Can the Saints’ defense dominate?
The New Orleans Saints kept themselves in the NFC South mix by defeating the Carolina Panthers in Week 14, but they’d need to beat much more difficult opponents for a chance at the Super Bowl title. A QB Derek Carr-led offense hardly inspires, so New Orleans must bank on its once-elite defense returning to its previous heights.
Atlanta Falcons
Why Atlanta could win SB58: Luck
Sorry, Atlanta Falcons fans — we’ve got nothing. Atlanta ranks bottom-10 in offensive and defensive DVOA. QB Desmond Ridder and Co. continuously make back-breaking mistakes, and HC Arthur Smith’s offensive personnel still leaves much to be desired.
The Falcons would probably need nearly every break from now through Feb. 11, 2024, to go their way to win the Super Bowl, but technically, they are still in the race for a division title.
Minnesota Vikings
Why Minnesota could win SB58: HC Kevin O’Connell and DC Brian Flores
QB Nick Mullens will become the Vikings’ fourth starting quarterback of the season when he starts against the Bengals on Saturday, and that might not be the only offensive change. WR Justin Jefferson’s status is up in the air after he suffered a chest injury in Week 14, and RB Alexander Mattison has a sprained ankle.
Minnesota is a walking infirmary at the moment, but they’re still in the race. Give credit to head coach/offensive play-caller O’Connell and defensive coordinator Flores, who have done as much to elevate their players in 2023 as any coaching tandem in the league.
Green Bay Packers
Why Green Bay could win SB58: QB Jordan Love’s upside
The Green Bay Packers surprisingly lost to the New York Giants on Monday night, but their 6-7 record still has them in place as the NFC’s seventh seed. While Love regressed in Week 14, he’d averaged nearly eight yards per attempt while throwing eight touchdowns and no interceptions over Green Bay’s previous three games (all wins). Could the Packers’ offense get hot at the right time?
Los Angeles Rams
Why Los Angeles could win SB58: Scoring points isn’t a problem
The Los Angeles Rams have already proven they can hang with the NFL’s best teams, having kept things close against the 49ers, Eagles, and Ravens. L.A. didn’t win any of those games, but no opponent wants to face an offense featuring QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kyren Williams, WR Cooper Kupp, and WR Puca Nacua.
Seattle Seahawks
Why Seattle could win SB58: HC Pete Carroll
Four consecutive losses have dropped the Seahawks below .500 for the first time this season, and the FPI pegs their postseason chances at just one in four. If they can get in though, Carroll’s playoff and Super Bowl experience could prove critical if Seattle wants to make noise.
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