We have three games left in the NFL season, and they promise to be three good ones with no shortage of high-end talent on all of the remaining rosters. The Conference Championship games figure to be exciting, but it is the Super Bowl that is the center of the NFL betting universe this time of year.
DraftKings was kind enough to give us look-ahead lines at all potential matchups, and that gives us an excuse to begin breaking down the big (four) game(s)!
* “Conference Championship parlay” refers to the odds you can currently get by betting both of these teams’ moneylines to advance to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl: Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 52)
- Conference Championship parlay: +876 at DraftKings
Trend To Know: Patrick Mahomes in games with a total of 50+ and a spread of three points or less:
- ATS: 9-6-1
- Overs: 10-6
- Overs in covers: 6-3
MORE: Lions vs. 49ers Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the NFC Championship
The Detroit Lions’ pass defense has been vulnerable all season, something that is obviously a red flag when playing against a generational quarterback. What makes that even more concerning is the fact that they have yet to find their form despite facing signal callers nowhere near Mahomes’ level when it comes to pocket potency.
The Lions’ last 11 QBs faced: Brock Purdy, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, Nick Mullens (twice), Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields (twice), Derek Carr, and Jordan Love.
The Lions have proven capable of overcoming their defense with an efficient pass game, but betting on that to happen in this matchup would be ignoring everything we’ve seen this season. The Kansas City Chiefs create pressure at the second highest rate, and that, as much as Mahomes, would be the reason they get my money should we get this game.
Rankings this season in passer rating when pressured this season:
- 17. Desmond Ridder: 65.1
- 18. Kenny Pickett: 64.8
- 20. Aidan O’Connell: 63.8
- 22. Jared Goff: 62.5
If the Lions are representing the NFC in the Super Bowl after upsetting the San Francisco 49ers, they are likely to catch the eye of casual bettors — bettors who bet on the team they want to see win. I don’t disagree that the Lions winning it all would be the better story than a Chiefs repeat, it’s just not the final chapter I’m writing in their 2023-24 book if we get this game.
Super Bowl: San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 47.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Conference Championship parlay: -106 at DraftKings
Trend To Know: Lamar Jackson as an underdog in his career
- ATS: 13-2
- Last five, overs: 4-1 (first 10: overs were just 4-6)
The matchup that has felt inevitable for nearly two months would make for a great game, but is the right team favored?
Both of these teams are top 10 in average time of possession this season, proving capable of imposing their will upon the opposition. If that is going to be the goal of both of these teams, the bottom of the defensive rush EPA leaderboard is awfully concerning.
- 27. New York Giants
- 28. Seattle Seahawks
- 29. San Francisco 49ers
- 30. Philadelphia Eagles
- 31. Carolina Panthers
- 32. Arizona Cardinals
The Baltimore Ravens have played five games against bottom-10 rush EPA teams, and the results have been overwhelming: 5-0 with a +75 point differential. Throughout that dominance, they’ve held the ball for roughly 56% of the game.
Brian Blewis mentioned on the PFN betting podcast this week that the Ravens are on their own tier, and I’m on board. The Ravens are positioned to cap a historically strong season with a Lombardi Trophy, even in the toughest possible matchup.
Given the look-ahead lines, I would be just as excited to take the Ravens’ moneyline (+102) as I would be the 49ers team total under 24.5 points.
Super Bowl: San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 49) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Conference Championship parlay: +241 at DraftKings
Trend To Know: Patrick Mahomes as an underdog entering the Conference Championship
- ATS: 9-1-1 (90%)
- Avg. Cover Margin: +7.1 points
- Overs: 8-3 (72.7%)
- Avg. Over Margin: +13.9 points
- Points Scored: 34.6 PPG
- Points Allowed: 30.5 PPG
As much as I like the Mahomes’ numbers (numbers that would be even better if the Chiefs find themselves in this spot), the 49ers are simply the better team, and I think that would prove itself out over 60 minutes.
I mentioned the struggles of the 49ers in defending the run, and that is a concern, but the Chiefs’ offensive rush EPA is as low this season as it has been over any point during the Mahomes era. Isiah Pacheco runs as hard as anyone, but with limited receiver talent on this roster, opposing defenses can gear up to slow him down.
MORE: Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction, Odds, and Picks for the AFC Championship
On the other side of the ball, Kansas City’s high-pressure defensive philosophy is a blessing in most spots, but I’d view it as a curse against a quick-strike 49ers attack that racks up yards after the catch. In this scenario, I am assuming we have a reasonably healthy version of Deebo Samuel due to the week of rest after the Conference Championship, thus unlocking every part of this unit.
The Brock Purdy discourse has gone from MVP candidate to overrated game manager over the past month — get ready for a full two weeks of comparing him to Mahomes and then 6+ months of trying to make sense of how “Mr. Irrelevant” slayed the GOAT.
Super Bowl: Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 50)
- Conference Championship parlay: +456 at DraftKings
Trend To Know: Jared Goff when getting more than three points as a Lion:
- ATS: 15-5
- Unders: 12-8 (including five straight)
It is no secret that the Lions need to win with offense. To reach the Super Bowl, they’d have to overcome a strong 49ers defense, but that unit isn’t as well-rounded as what they could be opposing on Super Sunday.
I mentioned the quarterbacks Detroit has played recently, and those concerns transfer to this matchup against the presumptive MVP. In four games since their bye against reasonably feared quarterbacks, the Lions have allowed 28 PPG.
How many times over the past 16 months has a team scored 29 points against the Ravens?
Twice.
And both of those instances required points being scored on defense. At this point, the fear is betting against presumed destiny — not the on-the-field matchups.
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