With NFL training camp underway and the preseason starting to get rolling, we’re creeping ever closer to the 2024 season. With all 32 teams putting the final touches to their preparation for the upcoming season, all eyes will be on the race to Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans. Let’s examine the betting odds for the 2025 Super Bowl and our analysts’ top picks for this season.
What Are the Super Bowl Odds for All 32 Teams?
- Kansas City Chiefs +500
- San Francisco 49ers +600
- Baltimore Ravens +1000
- Detroit Lions +1200
- Cincinnati Bengals +1300
- Philadelphia Eagles +1500
- Buffalo Bills +1500
- Houston Texans +1600
- Green Bay Packers +1900
- Dallas Cowboys +1900
- New York Jets +2000
- Miami Dolphins +2200
- Los Angeles Rams +3000
- Atlanta Falcons +3000
- Chicago Bears +3500
- Cleveland Browns +4000
- Los Angeles Chargers +4500
- Pittsburgh Steelers +5000
- Jacksonville Jaguars +5000
- Seattle Seahawks +6500
- Indianapolis Colts +6500
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8000
- Minnesota Vikings +8000
- Arizona Cardinals +10000
- New Orleans Saints +10000
- Las Vegas Raiders +10000
- Washington Commanders +12000
- Tennessee Titans +15000
- New York Giants +15000
- New England Patriots +18000
- Carolina Panthers +25000
- Denver Broncos +30000
Top Picks To Win the Super Bowl
Cincinnati Bengals (+1300)
Whenever I have expiring free bets lying around during the dog days of summer, if I can’t find anything appealing, I typically throw them on NFL futures. I’ve already got plenty of equity on the Chiefs to win again. They’re the favorites for a reason, but they’re not the best value.
Last season, I was heavy on the Bengals to win it all. Obviously, things didn’t quite go as planned. Joe Burrow strained his calf in training camp and never fully recovered. By the time he was getting going, Burrow tore a ligament in his wrist, ending his season and any hope the Bengals had at a playoff run.
Lest we forget that this team was in the Super Bowl just three years ago. Burrow is not only the only quarterback who has been able to knock off Patrick Mahomes in the past three postseasons, he’s also the only one not named Tom Brady with a playoff win over Mahomes.
Burrow is back, as are Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Why can’t the Bengals make a run this year? At +1300, I’m more than happy to take a shot.
– Jason Katz, PFN Fantasy and Betting Analyst
Dallas Cowboys (+1900)
I like the Cincy pick from Katz and have them representing the AFC in the Super Bowl, but ultimately coming up one victory shy of ultimate glory.
For the purposes of this study, I looked at the past 15 years, and in an effort to eliminate outliers, I collected data for both the sample as a whole and without quarterbacks at the center of the GOAT debate (Mahomes and Brady).
For Super Bowl champions since 2009 …
Regular-Season Win Percentage the Season Prior
- With GOAT candidates: 72.1%
- Excluding GOAT candidates: 63.3%
That “GOAT” number makes this an awfully short analysis piece, as the Ravens were the only team to win at that rate. So let’s use the other number, one that works out to 11+ victories in 2023.
- Ravens (13 wins)
- 49ers (12)
- Cowboys (12)
- Lions (12)
- Bills (11)
- Chiefs (11)
- Browns (11)
- Eagles (11)
- Dolphins (11)
Over those 15 seasons, the champions showed us the ability to dominate at home. Aside from the 2020 Buccaneers (acquired Brady) and the 2011 Giants, none of these teams lost more than two games at home in the year prior.
Maybe that’s random, but a team that performs well at home with heightened expectations holds value, as you’d expect their trip to The Big Game to run through their home field. Teams from the list above who checked this box last season …
- Cowboys (8-0 at home)
- Lions (6-2)
- Bills (7-2)
- Browns (8-1)
- Eagles (6-2)
- Dolphins (7-2)
The list is shrinking, and we’re just getting started. The average QB age at the time of his raising the Lombardi during this 15-year period is 32.2 years old. That dips to 30.5 if you remove the historical outliers of Mahomes/Brady.
Regardless of which sample you want to use, one standard deviation below the mean leaves you just over 26 years of age, so let’s draw a line through the remaining teams with a signal-caller who won’t be at least 27 years old come Feb. 9.
- Cowboys (Dak Prescott: 31 years old)
- Lions (Jared Goff: 30)
- Bills (Josh Allen: 28)
- Browns (Deshaun Watson: 29)
Over this stretch, the average Super Bowl-winning head coach has been at his current location for 7.7 years. But, of course, that number is skewed by these pseudo-dynasties. Removing coaches with either Mahomes or Brady at their disposal, the average time with the successful franchise prior to the big win drops to 4.3.
If we again take a standard deviation, this time in both directions, the meat of the bell curve ranges from a coach entering his third season to his seventh. We’re now down to three teams in our search for a 2024 champion.
- Cowboys (Mike McCarthy: 5th season)
- Lions (Dan Campbell: 4th)
- Browns (Kevin Stefanski: 5th)
That’s an interesting group of teams. The Lions are priced as the fourth favorite to win it all this season, while the Cowboys sit at eighth and the Browns at 16th. If you wanted to play any of them, I think you have a reasonable case.
With or without the Mahomes/Brady teams, the average Super Bowl champion cashed eight unders in the year prior to their victory. This may seem out of the blue, but I don’t think it’s crazy.
All teams in this study have the ability to put points on the board, but a decent under rate means that your defense has the ability to take over for stretches and/or keep you in a game in which the offensive flow isn’t there.
In three of the past six seasons, the future champion had more unders than overs the season prior (playoffs included), something that didn’t happen a single time during the first nine years of this sample. That leads me to think that the defensive component of this stat is somewhat sticky. None of these teams checked that exact box, but one did hit the “eight unders” number on the dot.
- Cowboys: 8-10 (44.4%)
- Lions: 7-13 (35.0%)
- Browns: 6-12 (33.3%)
It’s easy to poke fun at “America’s Team” due to their lack of postseason success, but don’t forget that Dallas has proven to at least be capable of putting themselves in an advantageous spot with three straight 12-win regular seasons.
– Kyle Soppe, PFN Fantasy and Betting Analyst
Detroit Lions (+1200)
I give you a lot of credit if you made it through Soppe’s 10K words on why to pick the Cowboys. My analysis would be one word: don’t. Let’s see them make a conference title game first.
All joking aside, I’m going with a team that actually did make it to the conference title game last year and who I think is just as good, if not better this year.
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The Detroit Lions were a fourth-quarter collapse away from making the Super Bowl last year and, in my opinion, have the second-best roster in the NFC behind the Eagles.
So why would I take the Lions +1200 over the Eagles +1500, knowing both have come close last two years?
I like the Lions’ offense better, and Dan Campbell’s questionable decisions aside, I like him better to win a meaningful game than Nick Sirianni right now. The Eagles were blown out when playing big-boy football late last year, while the Lions were right there.
Now, this is assuming Campbell has learned some lessons from last year and that Jared Goff and Detroit’s offense can sustain what they did last year. There’s a reason the odds are as close as they are.
– David Bearman, PFN Chief Content Officer
