The NFL playoffs come to a close with the Super Bowl — we have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 21 weeks of data, could this week be our most profitable yet? We’ve got some interesting sides, totals, and props to consider before settling in for what promises to be an exciting wrap to the 2024 season.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Super Bowl Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Super Bowl picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
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- A.J. Brown longest reception under 25.5 yards
- Neither team scores 30 points
Ben Rolfe’s First Look Picks
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- Kareem Hunt anytime TD (full betting card)
- Final score projection
David Bearman’s Picks
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- Chiefs -1.5 and Chiefs win by 1-6 (+250)
- Dallas Goedert over 50.5 receiving yards
- Travis Kelce over 63.5 receiving yards
- SGP featuring Goedert 60+ receiving yards and Kelce at 70+ (+360)
Jason Katz’s Picks
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- Xavier Worthy longest reception under 21.5 yards
Mark Stolte’s Picks
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- Jalen Hurts 225+ passing yards
Katz: As the fastest man in the history of the NFL, it’s easy to view Xavier Worthy as a splash-play specialist. And he is. Worthy’s speed makes him liable to break off a big gain any time he touches the ball. But it requires a Herculean effort on his part to do it.
Worthy caught 59 passes this season. Two of them went for more than 21 yards. If we include his two playoff games, he’s caught a total of 70 passes. Three of them went for more than 21 yards.
The Eagles have been adept at defending the deep ball. They were 30th this season in deep ball completion percentage allowed.
Pick: Xavier Worthy longest reception under 21.5 yards
Bearman: I’ve taken the Chiefs in every Super Bowl they’ve been in over the last six seasons and have gone 3-1, so why stop now? Hats off to the Eagles and their great season, but they haven’t won anything yet, unlike that team on the other side of the field.
The Chiefs may not have looked like world beaters most of the season, but they end with the W anyhow. Top WR tears ACL. Star QB doesn’t have anywhere near his best season. Star TE is M.I.A. most of the year. End result? One loss (with a full roster) and another trip to the Super Bowl.
You can break the game down a thousand different ways, but I will repeat what I said in Las Vegas last year on Radio Row and in this column… the Chiefs have the better coach and the better QB. And it’s not even close in those two categories. That equals titles. We saw it last year when Mahomes outplayed Purdy and Reid ran laps around Shanahan.
You can toss a thousand stats at me that might show the Eagles could be better but I will respond with one stat and one stat only: The Chiefs have won SEVENTEEN consecutive one-score games, including an incomprehensible 12-0 this season. That’s coaching. That’s championship DNA. And that’s a three-peat. (Do I have to pay Pat Riley???)
Picks: Chiefs -1.5, Chiefs win by 1-6 (+250)
Bearman: We are down to the final two teams, so there aren’t many weaknesses to exploit if they have made it this far. However, besides being the two best teams in football, they both have something else in common: They don’t cover the tight end very well.
The Chiefs allowed a league-high 8.7 yards per pass thrown to the TE this season, which is 19.2% worse than the league average. The Eagles have allowed touchdowns on 13.7% of passes thrown to TEs on the scoring half of the field, eighth-worst in football.
What’s this mean? Expect Dallas Goedert and Travis Kelce to be used often in this game as the two teams try to figure each other out.
Goedert trailed only the Niners’ George Kittle among TEs in yards per route this season, and we all know how good Kelce can be in the postseason, having recorded 14 consecutive postseason games with 70+ receiving yards until the AFC title game. That was double the longest streak ever. His 2,000 postseason receiving yards are only matched by one Jerry Rice.
Kelce is my MVP pick (+1500) — the Eagles allowed the Packers’ Tucker Kraft and Commanders’ Zach Ertz to catch the ball at will, so I am expecting Kelce to have a big game. And with the Chiefs near the bottom in most statistical categories in covering the TE, while having to also worry about A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith, Mr. Goedert will have his day as well.
Picks: Goedert o50.5 receiving yards, Kelce o63.5 receiving yards, and a SGP of both at Goedert 60+ with Kelce 70+ (+360).
Soppe: Some bets require more feel than numbers while others are a mix of the two. My favorite bets are neither — they are glorified math problems.
I could wax poetic about pace of play and play-calling tendencies, but instead, I’m just going to drop the raw data on you.
- Chiefs: No more than 10 drives in 73.7% of their games this season
- Chiefs: Under 3.0 points per drive in 78.9% of their games this season
- Eagles: No more than 10 drives in 50% of their games this season
- Eagles: Under 3.0 points per drive in 70% of their games this season
- Super Bowls since 2000: Under 3.0 points per drive for 87.5% of offenses
These trends suggest that elite efficiency is unlikely and the sheer number of possessions isn’t going to overwhelm. Just under 12% of games this season have featured a non-offensive touchdown — if the math holds, neither team threatens the 30-point plateau, a complete 180 from the 38-35 contest that we were treated to in Super Bowl 57.
Pick: Neither team to score 30 points
Soppe: The Eagles are very live to win this ballgame, but if they do it, it’s unlikely to come in a high flying sort of way. They are a unique team by today’s standards that wins with the ground game and defense.
When they have the ball and elect to throw, are we sure that the A.J. Brown from earlier in the playoffs isn’t going to be the version we see? This year, 90.7% of his targets have come on the perimeter, and Kansas City has locked down wide targets as well as anyone — sixth-fewest YAC, fourth-fewest YPA, and second-lowest completion percentage on those passes this season.
In the AFC Championship, Josh Allen managed to pick up just 58 yards on 13 perimeter throws. He obviously doesn’t have the weapons that Jalen Hurts does, but he’s as creative out of the pocket as anyone and gives his receivers time to uncover … it didn’t happen.
The matchup projects as prohibitive and, as mentioned, the offensive structure isn’t exactly ideal for over bettors.
Jalen Hurts Percentage of Throws That Travel 15+ Yards
- 2021: 26.3%
- 2022: 20.7%
- 2023: 20.2%
- 2024: 18.6%
That’s going to make this difficult to begin with from a volume perspective, but it only gets harder to project the deeper you dive. This season, the Chiefs ranked third in terms of percentage of yards gained on 25+ yard WR receptions that came after the reception (26.5%, league average: 34.7%).
Based on the trend above, it would seem that banking on high-end volume down the field is unlikely. Kansas City’s personnel doesn’t give much after the catch — something that coincides with a recent trend for Brown:
Brown Percentage of Deep Yards That Come YAC With Eagles
- 2022: 25.1%
- 2023: 18.8%
- 2024: 18.1%
Sheer play volume is working against optimistic bettors in this regard as well — both the Eagles and Chiefs rank outside of the top 20 in defensive plays per game. Both of these offenses are plenty comfortable in sustaining long drives, and if that’s not the case for Philadelphia, it’s because Saquon Barkley is ending drives in short order.
Doesn’t hurt us.
Steve Spagnuolo also has our back.
Chiefs Pressure When Not Blitzing
- Weeks 1-14: 31.9% (15th in NFL)
- Weeks 15-17: 40%
- Week 18: Rested regulars
- Playoffs: 39.7%
Hurts’ yards per pressured pass attempt are down 20.3% from last season, and his average depth of throw in those situations has dipped 11.9%. This number opened up at 24.5 yards and rose before midnight to 25.5. I’m holding out a little bit longer to see if I can squeeze any more value out on this prop, but I don’t see a 25+ yard grab coming from Philly’s WR1.
Pick: A.J. Brown longest reception under 25.5 yards
Stolte: Hurts is 67 of 99 for 825 yards, eight touchdowns, and only one interception on plays where he gets blitzed this season. Even adding in the 15 sacks (13.2% sack rate), his efficiency is well above average against the blitz.
In crucial moments of many playoff games, the Chiefs’ defense has proven to blitz incredibly effectively. This isn’t the case for the entirety of the season. Opposing offenses are 106 of 169 for 1,206 yards, 12 touchdowns, four interceptions, and 17 sacks (10.05% sack rate) when the Chiefs blitz.
Hurts averaged 193.53 passing yards per game this season, throwing for over 225 in six of them. The Chiefs’ defense ranks fourth this season in number of explosive rushes (10+ yards) given up at just 2.5 per game. They also rank 12th in EPA per play in likely rush situations while also ranking eighth in defensive rushing success rate on first and second down.
With a defense that is primed to do well (relatively) against Saquon Barkley, we need to find out how the Eagles attack a defense when they can’t get the run going. To do this, we are going to break it up into two situations: What the Eagles do when their run game is 1) below league average, and 2) below their own average.
On drives in which they average lower than 4.4 yards per carry (league average); the Eagles pass 2.91% more over expectation and average about a yard more per drive. This jumps up to 3.17% more over expectation and 22.3 more yards per drive in situations where they are below their typical average of 4.9 yards per carry.
The Chiefs blitz the ninth-most in the league, are great against the run, and aren’t very successful this season when blitzing. The Eagles’ pass game is more efficient and throw at a higher volume when their run game isn’t working. At +123, Hurts has an implied probability of 44.84% to reach 225 or more passing yards.
Pick: Jalen Hurts 225+ Passing Yards