The NFL betting action around Super Bowl 58 is already beginning to pick up. With bets starting to come in across various different types of wagers, Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce for Super Bowl MVP has already been seeing bets “pouring in” at Fanatics Sportsbook.
With lines moving around at various different books, let’s examine the latest NFL MVP odds for the likes of Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and more.
Super Bowl MVP Odds for Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Others
It’s crucially important that you shop around for your Super Bowl MVP odds because there is a big variation in odds across the different books. For example, Kelce, who has received 22.9% of the tickets at Fanatics Sportsbook, is down as low as +1100 there but can be found at +1500 on ESPN BET.
The early money on Kelce has seen him settle with the fourth-best odds for Super Bowl MVP. He’s behind the favorite in Mahomes (+130 at ESPN BET), Purdy (+225 at ESPN BET), and Christian McCaffrey (+460 at Fanatics Sportsbook).
Kelce broke Jerry Rice’s record for career playoff receptions and is coming off two huge games in back-to-back weeks. However, it’s hard to imagine Kelce winning Super Bowl MVP without a multi-touchdown game.
Unless Kelce ends up passing or rushing for touchdowns, his success will be almost directly tied to the arm of Patrick Mahomes. In their two Super Bowl victories, Kelce has totaled 12 receptions for 124 yards and two touchdowns, with a score in each game. Yet, Mahomes won the MVP award both times.
Neither of those games saw Mahomes put up huge numbers.
He had 286 yards with three touchdowns (one rushing) and two interceptions last time against the San Francisco 49ers. Last year, against the Eagles, he had 182 yards and three touchdowns while adding 44 yards on the ground.
Even with less than eye-popping numbers, Mahomes still did enough to be crowned MVP. That is somewhat the same theory with Purdy.
Unless one of his playmakers dominates with 100+ yards or multiple touchdowns, it’s hard for a non-QB to win the award. The last five years have seen two wide receivers take home the award, but six of the last 10 have been won by a quarterback. And for what it’s worth, a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP.
Meanwhile, the last running back to win Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in the 1998 season (Super Bowl XXXII). But if there was a running back you would back to break that drought it’s McCaffrey.
In the last two postseason games, McCaffrey has four touchdowns and 188 yards on 37 rush attempts. He has also added 72 receiving yards on 11 receptions from 17 targets.
McCaffrey is the perfect dual-threat back to be in contention for the MVP. He’s a threat to score from anywhere on the field and could easily touch the ball more than 20 times.
Additionally, he’s not a player who could be game-scripted out. If the 49ers are leading, they give McCaffrey the ball. If they’re trailing, they get McCaffrey the ball.
MORE: Super Bowl 58 Bet Tracking
In terms of players with longer odds, Deebo Samuel at +2000 is at least intriguing with his ability to score both in the receiving and rushing game.
We also saw linebackers win the award twice in three years between 2014 and 2016. While that seems unlikely, a dominant or opportunistic performance from the likes of Nick Bosa (+6000), Fred Warner (+10000), or L’Jarius Sneed (+15000) cannot be discounted.
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