Thanks to one-possession wins on Conference Championship Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are set to square off in Super Bowl LVIII. This is, of course, a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, a game the Chiefs won 31-20, turning a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit into their first title in 50 years thanks to three touchdowns in the final 6.5 minutes.
That game, however, was different in a variety of ways. In that game, three receivers had 40+ receiving yards, and none of them will be involved in this rematch (Kendrick Bourne, Tyreek Hill, and Sammy Watkins). Raheem Mostert and Damien Williams were the leading rushers in the first Super Bowl meeting, while Jimmy Garoppolo was under center for San Francisco.
The players aren’t the same in many areas as that meeting, and we have a Super Bowl trend that is in play this time around that wasn’t five seasons ago.
Super Bowl Betting Trend: Backing the Chiefs
“Trends” can be a dangerous thing this time of year — if you look hard enough, you can find numbers to back any angle you want. Honestly, that’s true for any week, but with all eyes on the big game, you’ll see plenty of goofy ones.
That’s not to say that this note is 100% predictive; it’s not. It is, however, a way to marry expectations and form heading into the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS this postseason, having covered the spread by an average of 10.0 points.
Since 2000, 10 teams have entered the Super Bowl after covering in each of the three weeks prior. Here are their average cover margin in those games and their Super Bowl ATS result.
- 2021 Cincinnati Bengals: 6.0 cover margin, COVERED
- 2012 Baltimore Ravens: 14.3 cover margin, COVERED
- 2011 New York Giants: 16.5 cover marin, COVERED
- 2010 Green Bay Packers: 12.5 cover margin, COVERED
- 2008 Arizona Cardinals: 16.2 cover margin, COVERED
- 2007 New York Giants: 11.5 cover margin, COVERED
- 2006 Indianapolis Colts: 7.3 cover margin, COVERED
- 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers: 14.3 cover margin, COVERED
- 2003 Carolina Panthers: 14.7 cover margin, COVERED
- 2000 Baltimore Ravens: 18.0 cover margin, COVERED
Notice a theme here? In addition to all of those teams covering on Super Sunday, eight of them had a double-digit average cover margin entering the final game of the season.
Also working in the favor of the defending champions is that they proved capable of winning by a margin during the regular season. Seven of the eight most recent teams on that list above had a .500 cover rate or better during the regular season (Chiefs: 9-7-1).
If you need even further ties to this undefeated ATS trend — the Chiefs are allowing 13.7 PPG this postseason, and those 10 teams gave up an average of 14.0 PPG heading into the Super Bowl.
MORE: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions and Picks for Super Bowl 58
The “it’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes” narrative is one that will circulate from now until kickoff, and that’s because it’s true. When the Chiefs have him starting under center, they are 18-8-1 ATS in games with a spread of three or fewer points.
We will dive into this game 1,000 different ways, so make sure to keep an eye out for future content, but there is no denying that the form of Kansas City is an interesting data point, given the success of similar teams!
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