Sportsbooks will do anything for engagement in this era of social media, and the Super Bowl is no exception. DraftKings has wisely played to the audience and listed a laundry list of Taylor Swift-themed bets for those looking for some creative NFL betting options on Super Bowl Sunday.
The odds and win equity are all over the place, so to help you sift through the noise, I’ve done the homework on a few that stood out to me to see if there are any worth taking.
Should You Bet Any Taylor Swift-Themed Super Bowl Wagers?
22: Any Quarter To Have 22+ Points Scored (+400)
Can nearly half of the projected total (47.5 points) be scored in a single quarter? On the surface, it may seem unlikely, but for two top-10 offenses in both yards per play and red-zone trips per game, these odds can be justified — and potentially bet on!
Since 2022, there have been 64 unique games played with Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy starting. and while that is 256 quarters of action, we only need it to happen once in the game for it to pay out.
- First quarter: 0
- Second quarter: 10
- Third quarter: 1
- Fourth quarter: 6
Those are the instances in which one of these teams saw 22+ points scored in a quarter, segmented by period. It shouldn’t be a surprise that these occurrences tend to happen in the even-numbered quarters where the offenses are motivated by the clock. That is a total of 17 occasions in 64 games.
But this isn’t “any” game, this is the Super Bowl. Over the last 10 season finales, these high-scoring quarters are a bit more rare:
- First quarter: 0
- Second quarter: 4
- Third quarter: 1
- Fourth quarter: 1
So where does that leave us, given the DraftKings listed line and the likelihood of it occurring on Sunday?
- Implied Probability: 20.0%
- Recent Probability, Teams: 26.6%
- Recent Probability, Super Bowl: 15%
“It’s miserable (Super Bowl odds) and magical (these specific teams).”
Play: Pass
Déjà Vu: Chiefs To Win By Exactly 11 Points (+3000)
When these two teams played in Super Bowl LIV and the Kansas City Chiefs won 31-20, things were just a bit different. In that game …
- Raheem Mostert led the San Francisco 49ers in rushing yards.
- Kendrick Bourne led the 49ers in receiving yards.
- Damien Williams led the Chiefs in rushing yards.
- Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins accounted for 71% of Kansas City’s receiving yards.
While the pieces involved in this game are largely different, could this ultra-specific bet be worth a look? Before outright dismissing this longshot bet — something I did when first seeing this option — let’s take a look at what the numbers have to say.
Mahomes has made 113 career starts, and just four of them have seen his Chiefs win by exactly 11 points. That said, two of his three games against the 49ers have checked that box (Week 3 in 2018 and the 2019 Super Bowl).
Over the past decade, there have been 71 instances in which a game landed on this total, five of them coming in the playoffs.
By no means is this close to likely to happen, but, considering the odds, I’d much rather roll the dice on this special than try to mirror the great David Bearman and call the exact score.
- Implied Probability: 3.2%
- Patrick Mahomes Probability: 3.5%
- Recent NFL Probability: 2.6% (4.3% in the playoffs)
”One spoon (score differential) for two (games) and trading jackets (switching trends from regular season to post).”
Play: Sprinkle
15: Patrick Mahomes To Rush for 15 Yards and Throw for 215 (-140)
Most of these are fun prop bets that are long shots to capitalize on the fanfare that comes with the Swifties’ increased interest in this game. There’s nothing wrong with that, but this option carries win equity that the others don’t, and that makes it attractive to gamblers of all experience levels.
Mahomes has accomplished this feat in all three games this postseason, running his playoff mark to 10 of 17. That’s not too shabby, and the hope here is that how he plays with his season on the line is the version of him that we see on Sunday (regular season: 45 of 96).
MORE: Taylor Swift Super Bowl 58 Prop Bets
Making this bet a little more intriguing is the fact that cashing this ticket is in play regardless of how the game plays out. If the Chiefs are trailing, Mahomes’ drop-back count increases. If they’re leading, their star QB more than likely racked up some yardage to make that the case.
One thing you do need to be aware of is kneeling down. We’ve seen Mahomes lose significant (and meaningful to some) yardage on extended kneeldowns that were designed to melt the clock even further than traditional “victory formation” snaps.
- Implied Probability: 58.3%
- Mahomes Probability: 48.7%
- Mahomes Playoff Probability: 58.8%
“Well, in your life, you’ll do things greater than dating the boy on the football team.”
Play: Bet
How You Get the Girl: Travis Kelce To Score in Both Halves (+1000)
Everyone wants to turn lunch money into an elite date night, and there are spots to try to do that — I’m not sold that this is one of them.
Yes, Kelce has scored three times over his past two games. If you want to argue that he has saved his best for last, I won’t argue with you, but that history suggests that you’re swimming upstream, even if we assume that peak Kelce is lurking.
Kelce has played 110 career games with Mahomes starting, and he has caught multiple touchdown passes in 12 of those games. Scoring twice, however, doesn’t cash this ticket.
Just five times with Mahomes under center has Kelce scored in both halves, a rate that makes this bet a tough one to click, even at the seemingly favorable odds.
Be careful here. In most bets that involve isolated halves like this one, an overtime period counts as its own entity. Not that it’s likely that this game needs an extra session, but something to be aware of if things are as close as projected.
- Implied Probability: 9.1%
- Recent Probability: 4.5%
“I would wait for ever and ever (ever and ever).”
Play: Pass
Look What You Made Me Do: Chiefs To Trail in the Fourth Quarter and Win (+500)
Now we’re getting interesting. At a glance, this bet checks all the boxes of a trap — it tugs on our emotion of wanting a competitive game, it gives us interest down the stretch (something that many bets don’t offer if they are essentially decided), and it plays on the narrative around the Chiefs that they come up clutch when the game is truly in the balance.
From a bird’s-eye view, I can understand why you’d be hesitant to consider this wager. But after looking at the numbers, this price is more reasonable than I first assumed.
MORE: Ben Rolfe’s Super Bowl 58 Predictions and Picks
Under Mahomes, the Chiefs have accomplished this 20 times, four of which came in the postseason. Is that playoff rate something we should be buying into?
Kansas City has struggled to score in fourth quarters this season (no team in the NFL averages fewer points per game in the final stanza), but they do own the third-best fourth-quarter scoring defense; that could spur a comeback if need be.
Since 2000, fourth-quarter comebacks happen almost as often (11 instances) as they don’t (12). This is a tough prop to root for, but when it comes to weighing the win probability with the price we’re being charged, this isn’t a bad way to get some upside on your betting card.
- Implied Probability: 16.7%
- Mahomes Probability: 17.7% (playoffs alone: 23.5%)
- Super Bowl Probability: 47.8%
“But I got smarter … I check it once, then I check it twice.”
Play: Sprinkle
Today Was a Fairy Tale: Kelce To Score and Chiefs To Win (+240)
Those who believe in destiny are in favor of this bet, as are those betting offshore that a Kelce/Swift proposal could take place in Vegas on Sunday night.
But what about those of us who are simply looking to leave Sunday with more money than we started with?
MORE: Top NFL Player Props for Super Bowl 58
Well, we all might be able to share a rooting interest. The Kelce/Mahomes tandem has been as strong as any in recent memory, and they’ve hooked up for a score in 11 victories during Mahomes’ 17 career playoff starts.
If that’s too small a sample for you, they’ve done it in 43 of Kelce’s 110 games that Mahomes started. Of course, the version of the HOF tight end that we are likely to get on Sunday isn’t the peak version of him that went into producing that rate, but could he rediscover that form for 60 minutes as he did during the AFC Championship Game?
- Implied Probability: 29.4%
- Mahomes Playoff Probability: 64.7%
- Career Probability with Mahomes: 39.1%
“Every move you make everything you say is right.”
Play: Bet
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