Kendrick Lamar’s Super Bowl Halftime Show is sure to generate interest, for better or worse. We know the feud with Drake is likely to take up some space in the headlines, but there are only so many ways for you to financially gain.
When the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles head to the locker rooms — how can you build your bankroll?
Let’s get to it!
Super Bowl 59 Halftime Show Odds and Prop Bets
The most popular Super Bowl Halftime Show bet involves picking which song you believe Lamar will sing first and last. It’s worth noting, however, that this prop won’t be available at the biggest US sportsbooks, as they have to offer NFL betting props based on elements that appear in the box score.
First Song Performed by Kendrick Lamar
“Humble” is the heavy favorite in this market, and I think that tracks. It was the top song on multiple lists for an extended time and is still popular despite us being eight years removed from its 2017 release.
But at twice the odds, why not get some exposure to a different song with a similar résumé?
OK, so “DNA” never topped the charts here in the USA, but it was inside the top five on both the R&B and rap charts, proof that there is national recognition to chase with this title.
Why aim for the greater payout instead of going with the favorite? Simple, our limited attention span. I won’t deny that “Humble” was (and still is) the more popular track, but baseball hitters don’t bat their best hitter leadoff.
There’s value to be gained in holding onto your ace. In baseball, it gives a chance for runners to be on base. And in a halftime show hierarchy, it forces you to stick around for a little bit before your scratch is itched.
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It’s obviously not a perfect approach, but it’s where I’m headed. The first song carries a high level of energy regardless of what it is, as it drifts from the first half of action on the field — the savvy move is to hold onto your hit for the two-hole, and I believe the Lamar camp is a sharp one.
Pick: “DNA”
How Many Songs Will Lamar Perform?
The listed line at BetMGM is 10.5, with the over carrying some reasonable juice (-175) and the under holding steady as the underdog (+125). Per Covers.com, there are six songs that come with play rate well above the rest:
- All the Stars
- Luther
- Not Like Us
- TV Off
- DNA
- Humble
I’m very much tempted to agree that all of these songs get some love at one point or another during the show, a performance that typically lasts 20-30 minutes from start to finish.
Not all shows are created equal, and not all songs are performed in their entirety. But those six songs have a run time of just over 21 minutes. Include the inevitable pauses when other talent comes on stage, not to mention the leeway that we are given in this listed total, and I’ve got a completely different read on this situation than the market.
Value or gullible?
That’s for you to decide, but I’m taking the plus-money in this situation and using my (hopeful) winnings to be aggressive in the second half of on-field action after having 30 minutes to digest how these teams match up with one another.
Pick: Under 10.5 songs
Which Celebrity(s) Will Appear With Lamar on Stage?
This market is a fluid one with more than a dozen options, all of which carry plus-money attached to them outside of Baby Keem (-142).
I think there’s a good chance that, given the number of eyes on this event based on the location, the history at stake on the field, and the stars already known to be attending, multiple names on the betting card cash.
Baby Keem (Lamar’s cousin) deserves to be the favorite, but I’m going to take a flier on Doechii at +210 in addition to a Keem ticket. Lamar has been supportive of her through social media over the years, and she has cited his musical stylings as an inspiration to her.
But this goes well beyond friendly banter and an idol vibe; this is about legacy. Many of the other favorites in this market are in Lamar’s general age range (mid-to-high 30s), but Doechii doesn’t turn 27 until this summer and can further Lamar’s already outstanding reach.
We can take for granted that Lamar will put on a great show and that his stock will rise in the short term. However, if he’s going to parlay this into a larger future footprint, going with an upcoming female over a veteran male is a savvy move.
Pick: Doechii (+210)
Last Song Performed by Lamar
Who is sticking around for the entire Super Bowl Halftime Show?
My guess is that it’s Lamar fans and Lamar fans only. If you’re anything like me, this is the time to get up, order food, or research rest-of-game prop bets. That means that I will miss most of it, yet because I’m a part of our football-crazed culture, I’m not going to miss a snap of the game.
Thus, my line of thought here is that Lamar will roll with the most newsworthy and topical song in his arsenal. Reports surfaced during Super Bowl week that the rapper wouldn’t shy away from the controversial “Not Like Us” diss track, and I’m going to take him at his word. From my experience as an otherwise distracted football fan, halftime needs to suck me in off the top and send me out in style as I prepare for the second half.
I went with Lamar’s most mainstream option to get the festivities started, and I now have fireworks to close, a performance that will keep the discussion going as the game action picks back up. I don’t mind playing the favorite when it comes to these popularity contests.
Pick: “Not Like Us”
