The San Francisco 49ers are the obvious Super Bowl favorites. They have been by far the most dominant team at full strength this season, with a 10-0 record and a +196 point differential when Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are in the lineup.
But when looking at the Super Bowl 58 odds, there is a giant sleeper in the AFC that stands out to me, and that is the Buffalo Bills.
Super Bowl 58 Odds: Buffalo Bills Loom as a Sleeper
Currently, the Bills are just the 11th seed in the AFC. They’re 7-6 but would lose the tiebreaker to the five teams ahead of them with the same record. They’re even money to make the playoffs and are -122 to miss the postseason, yet they have the seventh-shortest odds to win Super Bowl 58.
All odds are from ESPN BET — sign up today and use promo code PFN when registering to secure $250 in bonus bets!
- San Francisco 49ers (+260)
- Baltimore Ravens (+500)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+650)
- Dallas Cowboys/Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
- Miami Dolphins (+800)
- Buffalo Bills/Detroit Lions (+1800)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+2500)
- Cleveland Browns (+4000)
Why Are the Bills a Good Super Bowl Bet?
Once upon a time, Hall of Fame head coach Bill Parcells famously said “You are what your record says you are.” While “Big Tuna” might believe it, that certainly isn’t the case when it comes to the Bills.
Despite having lost six games, Buffalo is only one of two teams (along with the Ravens) that haven’t lost by more than one score this season. According to DVOA, the Bills are the sixth-best team in the NFL, and by EPA, they’re a top-five team.
By the betting market’s power rankings at inpredictable, the Bills are considered to be the fourth-best team in the league.
Point being, the Bills are good enough to compete with any team in the NFL, and it starts at quarterback with Josh Allen.
Although turnovers continue to be an issue for Allen, he’s having a very productive season, with 3,447 passing yards and 35 combined TDs in 13 games, with a QBR of 70.6 — third best in the NFL.
Going into Week 14, Allen led all quarterbacks by a considerable margin in luck-based EPA, which factors in yards after catch, drops, turnovers, strength of schedule, and other factors many stats do not.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
Although the Bills have one of the hardest remaining schedules and have very little margin for error, they’re more than capable of running the table and finishing with an 11-6 record.
The Bills are more than capable of competing with any team in the AFC, as we’ve seen this season, as they’re 2-0 against the Chiefs and Dolphins. Assuming they beat Miami in the regular-season finale, Buffalo will have beaten those teams on the road — showcasing that they could do so again in the postseason.
Not only do I like the Bills as a Super Bowl sleeper, but the betting public agrees. According to Max Meyer, Senior Editor at PointsBet/Fanatics, they’ve received more bets on the Bills to win the Super Bowl than any other team since their Week 12 overtime loss to the Eagles. At the time, their odds were raised to +4000 — their longest of the season.
While the value of betting on the Bills at +4000 is long gone, their current Super Bowl 58 odds of +1800 are still a worthwhile flier. They’ll most certainly get shorter if they beat the Dallas Cowboys this week.
Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.