It’s Wild Card Weekend and while redraft leagues might be in the rearview mirror, there’s still plenty of fantasy football formats to play over the next few weeks.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game on Sunday.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Cade Otton | TB (vs. WAS)
If you’ve been reading all season, thanks! If that’s the case, you’re likely not looking for hot Cade Otton takes — you know where I stand.
If not, thanks for joining us for the playoff run. I break down every player for every game for every week during the season, and I encourage you to hang with us into and through next season if you want to improve your fantasy knowledge base.
For those of you who are new here, I’m in the camp that Otton (when healthy; he’s currently battling a knee issue) is a fine play when Mike Evans is sidelined and a flat-out fade when that’s not the case. Tampa Bay’s WR1 is at full-go, and that makes me a full-no on their TE.
Otton’s production with Evans on the field, 2024:
- 0.84 yards per route
- 12.1% target share
- 19.1% red-zone target rate
Otton’s production without Evans on the field, 2024:
- 1.37 yards per route
- 17.7% target share
- 26.7% red-zone target rate
Otton turned two targets into five yards way back in the Week 1 meeting with the Commanders. Although much has changed since early September, Cardio Cade isn’t an investment I’m interested in making. If his ownership spikes because of the perceived favorable nature of this matchup, even better!
Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. DEN)
I’m bullish on the Bills from a trending standpoint, even in a matchup that finished the regular season atop our Defense+ metrics, and Dalton Kincaid is a part of that optimism.
- 2024: Targeted on 27.2% of routes
- 2023: Targeted on 19.8% of routes
Being on the field has been the problem, and that’s a real problem. Kincaid hasn’t played half the snaps in any of his three games back after missing a month, though the underlying metrics support the skill set, and I’m okay with betting on talent at this position more than others.
A fully functional version of Kincaid was on the field for 63.4% of snaps last season. To me, that potential is in play now that we are in a win-or-go-home setting, and Dawson Knox just doesn’t offer the same juice to an offense that needs to produce at a high level for this team to excel.
With Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta on bye this week, I wouldn’t look at you sideways if you projected Kincaid to lead the position in PPR points during the NFL’s second season, an upside that isn’t being priced into his playoff-long ADP right now.
Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. GB)
Dallas Goedert returned from a knee injury that cost him four games last week, and Philadelphia made a point to get him involved early. Grant Calcaterra hasn’t reached 35 receiving yards since October, and his failure to provide value to the Eagles’ passing game has me optimistic that Goedert will assume a full-time role this weekend.
Is that enough to matter with both star receivers earning looks at a high rate?
I’m not sure there’s much in the way of the ceiling when it comes to Goedert’s profile, but this is a potent offense with a multi-game projection — that’s enough to have my attention in playoff leagues.
In weekly contests, I don’t mind Goedert, but I’m not landing there due to my liking the two TEs who sandwich him in pricing more (Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft).
You’re rostering Goedert as a floor play. There’s nothing wrong with that, but in a position that weighs touchdowns heavily, I’m not getting there for a player who hasn’t scored more than three touchdowns in a season since 2021.
Goedert caught four passes for 31 yards in Week 1 against these Packers, a stat line that essentially matches my mean expectation.
Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. DEN)
We are nearing the three-month anniversary since the last time Dawson Knox found paydirt, and Jan. 22 will mark two years since his last game with five receptions.
Knox is a nice veteran presence on a team that needs to be buttoned up if they are going to earn the first championship in franchise history. However, that doesn’t make him a viable fantasy option, no matter the format.
Knox’s participation rate:
- Week 14 at Rams: 81.5% snap share (29 routes)
- Week 15 at Lions: 73.5% snap share (26 routes)
- Week 16 vs. Patriots: 56.9% snap share (20 routes)
- Week 17 vs. Jets: 46.8% snap share (14 routes)
It’s never the wrong time to make the right call. Dalton Kincaid is the superior target earner, and Knox’s role is going the way of the dinosaur. There are punt options available across the board in any slate that are more worth your time.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at LAR)
With each passing week, my finger gets a little more itchy to take an aggressive approach on positive T.J. Hockenson props. I haven’t yet pulled the trigger in a major way, but the time might be here.
Hockenson’s participation progression, 2024:
- Weeks 1-8: DNP
- Weeks 9-11: 45.5% snap share
- Weeks 12-15: 64.2% snap share
- Weeks 16-18: 71.6% snap share
The Johnny Mundt/Josh Oliver contingent caught three of four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown when these teams first met, a game that took place before Hockenson was cleared to return. It’s very possible he soaks up that usage and then some against a defense that ranked 31st in yards allowed per attempt via the short pass.
Those targets aren’t always exciting, but I expect them to be wide open as the Rams (28th in opponent deep passer rating) allocate resources to slow down the quick strike duo of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Sam Darnold wasn’t shy about pushing the envelope in that Week 8 meeting (10.4 aDOT, his second-highest of the season), and with Los Angeles able to escape with a victory, I’m willing to wager that they are game-planning to get the ball out of his hands much quicker this time around.
Sportsbooks are under no pressure to post prop lines for the final game of the week with any urgency. Yet, when they do, I’ll be looking at the prices on Hockenson to clear 3.5 and 4.5 catches.
Tucker Kraft, | GB (at PHI)
It sounds as if Jordan Love is going to be okay (fingers crossed). Assuming that’s the case, there’s a world in which a Tucker Kraft flier makes sense in a Wild Card DFS setting.
With Christian Watson out and Green Bay’s passing-game targets being variant to begin with, embracing the unknown is a reasonable path, especially if you think the Packers are playing from behind in this spot.
- Week 14 at Lions: 21.7% on-field target share
- Week 15 at Seahawks: 7.4% on-field target share
- Week 16 vs. Saints: 21.1% on-field target share
- Week 17 at Vikings: 10.3% on-field target share
- Week 18 vs. Bears: 25.9% on-field target share
Kraft has five straight games with a 20+ yard reception, a run that matches the longest streak at the position this season. That gives him the potential to create splash plays and/or reign in volume. If Kraft can do either of those things, he’s likely to pay off his price tag in Philadelphia.
I’m not the least bit worried about an underwhelming Week 1 showing in this matchup (2-27-0), but I would caution against going this route in playoff-long formats given the very low win expectancy for the green and gold.
Zach Ertz | WAS (at TB)
There are just four tight ends who have more games this season with at least seven PPR points than Zach Ertz (12). That may seem like a low bar to clear, but is it?
Sam LaPorta didn’t get there.
Travis Kelce didn’t get there.
The veteran TE is spending 57% of his time in the slot, which has allowed Ertz to cash in on layup targets (5+ targets in six of his past eight games). Those looks project favorably in this specific spot against a Buccaneers defense that allows 9.1 yards per slot pass, the second-most in the NFL.
Ertz’s value has been the product of touchdowns (six over his past seven games), and while chasing scores can be dangerous, he’s in the right offense to do it. Washington has been the second-best red-zone offense since Week 10 (TD on 80% of red-zone trips).
The Commanders’ offense has grown, and Ertz has found his footing with time, giving me confidence that he rather easily clears the 3-28-0 stat line he gave us in Week 1 against the Bucs.
In postseason-long leagues, Ertz is a tough sell. At variable positions like this, I want game equity, and even if the Commanders were to pull off the upset this week (I think it’s live), I don’t see them getting past the Lions (assuming the Eagles handle the Packers).
Dalton Kincaid and Will Dissly are the lesser-thought-of tight ends who I’d rather gamble on in structures like that.