It’s Wild Card Weekend and while redraft leagues might be in the rearview mirror, there’s still plenty of fantasy football formats to play over the next few weeks.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game on Sunday.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Wild Card Weekend Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (at LAR)
Aaron Jones hasn’t had a 15+ yard carry since November and has seen his rushing total decline in three straight games (held out of the end zone in each of those contests). I don’t think Cam Akers is a real threat to really push this to a committee situation, but he does have an explosive rush in consecutive games and found paydirt on a catch against the Packers in Week 17.
Jones didn’t exactly put forward good film in Week 8 against these Rams, picking up just 58 yards on 19 carries, averaging a season-low 1.89 yards per carry after contact in the process. That said, Minnesota was comfortable in acquiring the former Packer in part because of his postseason success.
For his career, Jones has produced 11% over expectations in postseason games, averaging 4.6 red-zone touches per game. There are some signs that the Vikings could use him in a similar way, as he averaged 4.5 targets and 3.3 red-zone touches against teams that qualified for the postseason.
I don’t think there is much hope for high-end efficiency, and that means you’re effectively chasing a touchdown. Generally speaking, I’m out on that sort of profile, but if you’re going to do it this week, Jones is as good a bet as any, playing on a team that is favored and opposing a defense that allows a touchdown on 25% of drives, the second-worst rate among playoff teams.
Minnesota should bounce back from their embarrassing showing on Sunday night, I’m just not sold that their RB1 is the beneficiary.
Audric Estimé | DEN (at BUF)
Audric Estimé has scored in two of his past three games, but you’d have to really be looking to be different to go this direction with Denver being such a big underdog.
NFL dropback rates, 2015-24:
- Trailing: 67.7%
- Tied: 58.2%
- Leading: 51.7%
Rushing attempts could be limited for the Broncos, and that’s a death sentence when it comes to any hope for Estimé. Is it true that a running back in a Sean Payton scheme can scam his way to PPR points? It sure is, but we have no proof that the rookie would be used in such a role.
In a blowout win over the Falcons, he caught three passes in five plays – he has two other catches on his NFL résumé. We are looking at a player who doesn’t have a touch gaining 10+ yards in two months and projects for, at best, 6-8 touches.
I’m fine with targeting uncertainty in a playoff setting, but we seem to have a level of certainty in Estimé not being a consistent part of this offense.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at TB)
Brian Robinson Jr. is a fine player, but he’s nothing more than a leverage play this week. He managed just 40 yards on 12 carries in Week 1 as a part of this matchup, and that was without defenses having to allocate the attention to Jayden Daniels they now prioritize.
The problem for me with Robinson is the regression of his passing-game number. Last season, he turned 218 routes into 43 targets (19.7% rate). That growth was great to see, but with 25 targets on 185 routes this year (13.5% rate), we can’t count on much help should the game script work away from the ground game.
The contrarian side of this would be you taking a pro-Washington angle. The Commanders jumped out early in Week 13 against the Titans, and their running backs finished with 35 carries for 229 yards and a pair of scores. I don’t think that’s a likely outcome, but neither do most people, and that would allow you to gain on your competition.
If you do go in this direction, I’d suggest doubling down. If Washington goes up early and controls things, you’re going to want correlated exposure. There are two ways to do this, and I think you can build two lineups to cover both bases — you either embrace the volume that this puts on the Bucs’ passing game and stack Baker Mayfield or you embrace the Tampa Bay dropback count by rostering Washington’s defense.
This is certainly a 4D chess way of approaching the slate this week, but if winning were easy, everyone would do it, right?
Bucky Irving | TB (vs. WAS)
You’ve seen the highlights and heard the hype surrounding Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers were front-and-center last week in earning their playoff bid. There has been no shortage of coverage, yet it’s possible you’re not high enough on their rookie RB.
Soppe’s Wild Card RB rankings:
- Saquon Barkley
- Bucky Irving
- Derrick Henry
Yes, he’s been that good. If you extend his last seven healthy games over a 17-game schedule, we are talking about a running back with 1,700 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, and 493 receiving yards. That’s a stat line that only Edgerrin James (2000) and LaDaininian Tomlinson (2006) have ever achieved for a season.
Irving is taking the league by storm and is playing in the game with the highest total of the week. This season, the Commanders own the second-worst red-zone defense among teams still playing, struggles fueled by the lowest success rate against the run of this group.
Consider this: Washington allowed 49.6% more yards per RB carry before contact than the league average this season (only the Panthers were worse). Rachaad White is a name you know, but he’s not currently a threat to take much usage away from Irving. There’s nothing standing in the rookie’s way of continuing his run of dominance, something his price point doesn’t reflect ($1,200 cheaper than Derrick Henry on DraftKings).
His scrimmage yardage prop opened at 108.5 yards, and I’m not sure it’s nearly high enough. I’ve locked in an over on that number and, in a hedge of sorts, I bet he and Brian Robinson Jr. combine for over 134.5 rushing yards, thinking that the team playing with a lead has plenty of success on the ground.
Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN (at BUF)
I’m going to do a few irresponsible things here to prove a point. Stick with me here.
In Year 2, Christian McCaffrey picked up 41.8% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
In Year 2, Jaleel McLaughlin picked up 41.2% of his rushing yards after first contact and gained at least 10 yards on 14.2% of his carries.
Want some more propaganda? You’re in the right spot.
Since Week 12, McLaughlin’s 10+ yard carry rate was up to 18.5%, the highest in the league. The next players on that list among qualifiers:
2. Derrick Henry: 17.2%
3. Jahmyr Gibbs: 16.2%
4. Bijan Robinson: 14.6%
We clearly only have so much film to go on for McLaughlin, but he looks like more than just the best back in Denver. Sean Payton loves what Bo Nix brings to the table, but I don’t think getting into a shootout with Josh Allen is on the to-do list this week, furthering my belief that we could get a true breakout performance from this backfield against a Bills defense that ranks 23rd at preventing running back yardage before contact.
I’ve got him penciled into my first run of a DraftKings GPP lineup for the entire Wild Card slate:
QB: Jayden Daniels (at TB)
RB: Bucky Irving (vs. WAS)
RB: McLaughlin (at BUF)
WR: Ladd McConkey (at HOU)
WR: Cooper Kupp (vs. MIN)
WR: Marvin Mims (at BUF)
TE: Zach Ertz (at TB)
FLEX: Keon Coleman (vs. DEN)
D/ST: Eagles (vs. GB)
James Cook | BUF (vs. DEN)
James Cook was one of the more valuable fantasy assets during the regular season (18 touchdowns), and while your instinct might be to fade him with the thought that Josh Allen will put on the cape now that we are in the postseason, I’d fight that thought.
There are six players since 2000 to record 18 carries and four catches in consecutive playoff games — Cook’s name is on that list (Curtis Martin, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey, and Isiah Pacheco being the others). The touch floor has been stable this season, and given this offense’s potency, his volume holds significant value.
With Ray Davis and Ty Johnson not posing much of a threat, the carries are safe, and we’ve seen the passing-game role stabilize (3+ targets in six of his past seven). The stingy nature of this Denver defense is a clear concern (tops in success rate against the run and third-best red-zone unit), but I expect that to very much be accounted for in terms of ownership.
The way the pricing is laid out, Bucky Irving will garner more attention in this range and Josh Allen’s managers will naturally gravitate away from this backfield. You’ve got my green light on Cook in all formats, and I’ll be even if not ahead of the market when it comes to ranking him for 2025.
Javonte Williams | DEN (at BUF)
Thanks, but no thanks. Javonte Williams’ role has been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, and what I saw last week was more than enough for me to have zero interest.
With their season on the line, Jaleel McLaughlin (41.7% share) out-snapped Williams (29.2%) in a meaningful way, and that was the game plan coming in — McLaughlin’s edge was 61.9% to 23.8% in the first quarter.
Williams has multiple receptions in all but two games this season, so if you think the Broncos aren’t competitive in the least, maybe he will get there, but that’s a thin path to success and not one I believe in. Williams is in the final year of his deal, so even if that game script were to play out, wouldn’t Sean Payton be more likely to get his younger options some playoff reps?
I’ll have exposure to plenty of players this weekend, but Williams will not be on that list.
Josh Jacobs | GB (at PHI)
Josh Jacobs has rushed for a touchdown in a franchise-record eight straight games and averaged 5.1 yards per carry over his past three. He’s been able to add value in the passing game, catching each of his past 13 targets, and is peaking at the perfect time
The Packers have fully committed to Jacobs being their offensive guiding light (third in rush rate over expectation this season), and it’s largely working. That said, there is some risk in this game situation with the Packers expected to trail.
Like every team, Green Bay prioritizes the pass when trailing. Their dropback rate is 15.3 percentage points higher when trailing than when ahead (league average difference: 14.7 percentage points), which certainly needs to be considered in this discussion.
Add to the projected game script the fact that these are the two highest-rush-rate teams in the league (fueling a bottom-10 pace), and I don’t think Jacobs has a great chance at averaging the 19.8 touches that he averaged per game this season.
Philadelphia allows a touchdown on just 17.5% of drives (third best in the NFL; league average: 22.7%), giving Jacobs one fewer path to success. I will not have much Green Bay exposure, be it in DFS or postseason-long formats, and Jacobs is the most expensive of the bunch.
Kyren Williams | LAR (vs. MIN)
I’m not in love with Kyren Williams this week regarding efficiency or upside, but his raw volume is so overwhelming that he checks in as my RB4 and sits atop my second tier.
Let’s start with the good. Over this win streak, Williams is producing 11.2% above expectations. He’s a great player, but I’m encouraged because the offensive line is getting stronger at the perfect time (Williams is averaging 18.5% more yards per carry before contact over those games than he did previously).
Combine that with a role that ranks favorably for just about anyone (six missed games since last season and he still leads the league with 126 red-zone touches), and you could argue that Williams’ floor is the highest on the slate.
That’s great, but I don’t think the ceiling is there to help you ship some sort of big DFS tournament. In Week 8, it took him 23 carries to gain 97 yards against Brian Flores’ crew, consistent with what we’ve seen against good teams of late. Since that contest, he’s failed to gain yardage on 75% of his carries three times, and they all came against high-level competition.
- Week 8 vs. Vikings: 73.9%
- Week 12 vs. Eagles: 68.7%
- Week 14 vs. Bills: 72.4%
Minnesota is the fifth-best after-contact rush defense in the league; that can neutralize this offensive line’s growth. Williams is a fine play, but I don’t think his ceiling touches Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, or Bucky Irving’s this week.
Rachaad White | TB (vs. WAS)
It’s never a bad time for a blind resume. Here are three production lines over the past three weeks:
- Player A: 15.7% of team rushing yards and 13.9 PPR points as a pass catcher
- Player B: 13.3% of team rushing yards and 19.9 PPR points as a pass catcher
- Player C: 7.8% of team rushing yards and 13.4 PPR points as a pass catcher
All of those stat lines look roughly the same, and none of them are overly appealing. I think we can agree on that. Rachaad White is clearly one of them based on the construct of this article – would he be even remotely on your radar if not for a strong 2023 fantasy season?
The answer should be no.
This is the Bucky Irving show and things are going just fine under that plan – Tampa Bay is the third-highest-scoring offense since returning from their Week 11 bye.
- Player A: Hassan Haskins
- Player B: Javonte Williams
- Player C: White
Ray Davis | BUF (vs. DEN)
Ray Davis exploded in one game as the lead back, but with James Cook healthy and the rookie seemingly hitting something of a wall, there’s not nearly enough meat on this bone to have my interest in any format.
Over the last four weeks, 30.3% of Davis’ carries have failed to gain yardage. For a player living in the 5-8 touch range weekly, a trend like that is more reason than I realistically need to look just about anywhere else. If I’m paying down this week, it’ll be at the WR or TE position — I’m not getting cute with a player like Davis against the NFL’s fourth-best run defense by EPA.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. GB)
Saquon Barkley is my top-ranked fantasy RB this week. Saquon Barkley is the most expensive running back on the slate. Saquon Barkley has been the best running back in the NFL this season (league-high 10 top-10 finishes).
With enough in terms of value in the WR pool, I think you can make a Barkley lineup work without having to get too crazy. Personally, I’m not.
That’s nothing really against Barkley as much as it is my preference for spending up elsewhere and living in the middle tier at running back. This Packers defense is viable, and while I don’t think they stop the All-Pro, slowing him down is all it takes given the expensive price tag.
Green Bay owns the best run defense among playoff teams in terms of running back yards gained before contact per carry this season, and they did hold Barkley to 5+ yards on just 33.3% of his carries back in Week 1, the fifth-best defensive showing against him this season.
With Jaire Alexander out, the Eagles may pick on this secondary instead of running into their solid front. Even if that’s the case, Barkley could produce enough down the stretch to pay off his price tag — heck, even with limited efficiency in his team debut, he racked up 33.2 PPR points against this defense the first time around.