Just when you think the big moves are behind us, the NFL has one more trick up its sleeve. The Buffalo Bills traded disgruntled WR Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in a deal that involved nothing else other than draft picks. Suddenly, the Texans have a loaded offense.
Is this a good thing for fantasy football?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Stefon Diggs Being Traded to the Houston Texans?
It’s hard to say it’s a total surprise the Bills traded Diggs. There’s simply no way Diggs was happy with the team’s midseason decision to stop throwing him the ball last year.
For the first nine weeks of the season, Diggs looked like his typical, elite self. He was on pace for the best season of his career, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. Nothing appeared to be amiss. From Weeks 1-9, the Bills also had a 59% neutral game script pass rate. The problem was they weren’t winning games.
#Bills WR Stefon Diggs has scored 7️⃣ TDs since Week 18 of the 2022 season — tied for most among #NFL WRs.
Will Diggs find the endzone tonight on #TNF? 👀#BillsMafia
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 26, 2023
In Week 10, they flipped the script. Their neutral game script pass rate plummeted to 47% over the remainder of the season, second-lowest in the league.
In addition to them throwing less, they specifically threw to Diggs less. There is no way to spin Khalil Shakir amassing more receiving yardage (387) than Diggs (349) over the final eight games of the season as an accident. Diggs averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game over that span and was unstartable in fantasy. The all-important question is: Why?
In evaluating Diggs’ 2023 season as a whole, we have a 30-year-old player who showed clear signs of decline. After averaging 2.87 yards per route run in 2022, third in the league, that number fell to 2.03, 31st in the league. His 7.4 yards per target was a whopping two-yard decline from the previous year, taking him from 17th to 62nd.
With that said, this move can’t be worse for Diggs’ fantasy value than his situation over the second half of last season on the Bills. Given that C.J. Stroud is far less mobile than Josh Allen, the overall passing volume should increase. We should see Diggs rebound a bit from a fantasy perspective. But will he return to being at least a fantasy WR2?
The Texans Have Too Many Mouths To Feed
Yes, it’s cliché. But that doesn’t make it untrue.
The Texans’ offense thrived last season, with Nico Collins finishing as a WR1 and Tank Dell finishing as a WR2. Both of these guys are young and improving. I get why the Texans added Diggs — you can never have too much talent — but this is a disaster for fantasy purposes.
Even if Diggs is done, he’s going to be on the field. He’s going to command targets. At worst, Diggs’ target share should be around 20%.
READ MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Chart
Last season, Collins posted WR1 numbers on just a 22.7% target share. Dell was right there with him with a 20.4% target share. We had every reason to project those percentages to increase in their second season with Stroud. Now, we can’t. In fact, it’s very likely both of their target shares decline.
Houston gave up a second-round pick to acquire Diggs. The front office must still believe he has plenty left in the tank. Whether we share that belief doesn’t really matter. Houston did not trade for Diggs to make him late-career Julio Jones. He’s going to play — a lot — and he may very well be immediately installed as the WR1.
The problem for fantasy is the Texans are not going to force-feed Diggs the ball. Even if he is better than expected, Collins and Dell deserve targets.
I fully expect Collins and Dell to have big weeks. Diggs may even throw a couple in himself. But predicting which wide receivers pop on which weeks is going to be an exercise in futility.
This trade is going to depress the fantasy values of all three receivers. It’s unfortunate because Diggs was shaping up to be one of the easiest fades this season, going several rounds above where I would take him.
Meanwhile, Dell was one of my favorite targets, as the gap between him and Collins was greater than it should be. Now, it will depend on how much of a discount we get.
At this juncture, it’s too early to predict who will be the highest-drafted Houston receiver. My guess is it will be Diggs, followed closely by Collins. Hopefully, Dell becomes a fantasy afterthought and falls into the fifth or sixth round. At that price, I would happily scoop him up.
The Texans Going All In Is Great for C.J. Stroud
It’s hard to say this is a good thing for Stroud, as I believe the Texans already rostered two wide receivers significantly better than Diggs at this point in his career. But in terms of figuring out fantasy values, it doesn’t matter who Stroud throws the touchdowns to, as long as he’s throwing them.
The Texans now gifted Stroud with Diggs and Joe Mixon. This has all the makings of one of the most potent offenses in the league. I don’t view Diggs as a net positive for the offense, but all of this team’s moves point to a team that wants to throw the ball.
Unfortunately, this likely makes me out on Stroud for the 2024 fantasy season. This move is going to increase his ADP. Even if Diggs is still very good, it doesn’t change the fact that Stroud doesn’t run, thus making it very difficult for him to be an elite fantasy QB. It will just make him more overpriced.
Stroud is going to be one of the top QBs in the NFL for the next decade. He’s fantastic and deserves all the praise. Houston could very well be a perennial playoff team. But, at least in 2024, I don’t expect it to translate into Stroud being an elite fantasy QB.
What Happens Now in Buffalo?
To be clear, someone is going to be very, very wrong about Diggs. The Texans very clearly believe he’s still a top receiver. But who knows the intricacies of Diggs better than the Bills?
Currently, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir are the top two receivers on Buffalo. After being very close to a Super Bowl run, not only did the Bills trade away their best weapon, but it’s going to cost them $31.1 million in dead cap. Buffalo is paying an extra $3.24 million to not have Diggs on their roster.
Diggs may be such a drain in the locker room that they wanted him gone at all costs. However, I have a hard time believing a team this close to winning a championship wouldn’t find a way to work things out with their WR1 if they truly wanted to. I believe the Bills believe Diggs is no longer a (strong) starting-caliber receiver, and the Texans are about to find out the hard way.
Meanwhile, in Buffalo, I guess the Bills have to draft a wide receiver. It would be awesome if they could trade up for one of the big three of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze. Instead, they will probably have to settle for one of the lesser, but still very talented receivers in this class.
The immediate reaction from fantasy managers may view this as a negative for Josh Allen’s fantasy value. Well, we saw him produce elite QB1 numbers for the entire second half of the 2023 season while avoiding throwing the ball to Diggs.
He doesn’t need Diggs to be the best QB in fantasy. I am not moving Allen at all, and would still take him around the Round 2/3 turn.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy WR Rankings 2024
As for Shakir and Samuel, it’s too soon to draw any conclusions. The Bills are going to add a wide receiver in the NFL Draft. Whether he ends up being their WR1, or this is a WR by committee with all three of them remains to be seen. It’s probably wheels up for Dalton Kincaid, though.
