Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been a locked-in fantasy WR1 ever since joining the team in 2020. Showing no signs of slowing down, should fantasy managers ignore the offseason noise and buy into Diggs once again? What is his fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Stefon Diggs’ Fantasy Outlook
You don’t need me to tell you Diggs is very good at football. For the past three seasons, Diggs has been as reliable as it gets. His best year was in 2020 when he averaged 20.5 PPR fantasy points per game. After regressing a bit in 2021, averaging just 16.8 ppg, Diggs bounced back to 18.9 ppg last season.
Over the past three years, Diggs hasn’t missed a game. His target share has been over 26% each season, and he’s caught at least 100 passes.
Fantasy managers watching Diggs play over the past two seasons may have noticed the Bills frequently pulled him off the field after he caught a pass. This resulted in his route participation rate hovering at around 87%.
However, Diggs is still being targeted on 30.6% of his routes run, the eighth-highest rate in the league. So, it hasn’t impacted his overall volume.
Diggs remained one of the most efficient receivers in the league last season. His 2.87 yards per route run was third in the league. He averaged 2.07 fantasy points per target, ninth in the league.
Diggs really couldn’t ask for a better situation. The Bills remain one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, throwing the ball at a 62% clip in neutral game scripts. They have an elite QB in Josh Allen. And the target competition behind Diggs is minimal, with the Bills lacking a true WR2.
The only real concerns surrounding Diggs are his age and this potential rift with Allen. As for his age, Diggs will turn 30 years old this season. The age at which WRs should be expected to decline is more like 32/33. Diggs has shown no signs of decline. Fantasy managers should be extremely confident that this is not the year Diggs falls off.
As for the offseason tiff between Diggs and the Bills, stemming from Diggs’ frustrations with Allen and offense in their postseason loss to the Bengals, I wouldn’t worry too much about it.
Ultimately, Diggs is a competitor and wants to win. He’s going to go out there and try every game. The Bills are not trading Diggs, and he’s not going to hold out. If you choose to fade Diggs this season, don’t let this be the reason.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Diggs at His ADP?
Diggs’ ADP sits at WR5, No. 11 overall. I have him ranked at WR4. Diggs should absolutely be a first-round pick in every fantasy league. While he doesn’t have the same ceiling as the four receivers taken ahead of him, he is as safe as it gets.
My projections have Diggs catching 127 passes for 1,601 yards and 10 touchdowns. I have him averaging 20.5 ppg and finishing as the WR5.
I feel really good about Diggs this season and would have no reservations about taking him in the second half of the first round.