The dynasty discussion surrounding Houston Texans WR Stefon Diggs is as interesting as any player on the board, and it may not be close.
On one hand, Diggs posted a 107-catch, 1,183-yard, eight-touchdown season in 2023 that resulted in a WR13 finish (half-PPR points per game).
On the other hand, he was a top-45 receiver just once in his final seven games of the fantasy season (Weeks 10-17) and didn’t score in December. Forget scoring — Diggs didn’t even have a 25-yard catch over that stretch!
So now what? The 30-year-old receiver was a WR1 lock entering the 2023 season, and he only increased his value through the first half of the season before a two-month slog to the finish line.
What should dynasty fantasy football managers be doing with Diggs now that he calls Houston, a roster loaded with young receiver talent, home?
Stefon Diggs’ Dynasty Outlook
The situation Diggs finds himself in is fantasy-friendly, that much we know. He has a quarterback in C.J. Stroud who showed out as a rookie and should continue to improve at a rapid rate.
Stefon Diggs’ production dropped off over the back half of 2023.
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Diggs was in a great spot in Buffalo. The WR2 playing alongside him (Gabe Davis) was anything but a target earner, and the connection with Josh Allen clicked from Day 1.
The versatility of his QB didn’t hurt him — instead, it elevated his stock as Allen’s greatness put the Bills in scoring position as often as anyone, allowing Diggs to thrive.
But — there’s always a but.
Father Time is looming, and the second half of the season indicated that Diggs may be closer to nearing the end than dynasty managers should be comfortable with.
In basketball, age is shown in the reliance on the jump shot instead of getting to the rim. With declining athleticism, older players look to evolve and play to their new strengths.
In football, “jump shots” are often short/slot routes, as receivers lose the ability to separate and/or elevate, thus making the downfield plays more difficult.
Percentage of points scored via deep pass
- 2023: 30%
- 2022: 41.8%
On the whole, that’s a red flag. But when you segment the data, that red flag turns into a full-blown panic.
Percentage of points scored via deep pass 2023
- Weeks 1-9: 36.1%
- Weeks 10-17: 10%
The worst part? There are no available excuses. I tried to find them, but there simply weren’t any.
I wondered if this was an Allen thing or if Diggs’ route tree had been adjusted based on specific matchups — either of which would allow fantasy managers to write off that dip as something of an outlier.
MORE: Stefon Diggs Being Traded to the Houston Texans Creates a Logjam at WR
In the second half of the fantasy season, while Diggs’ deep production tanked, Allen’s aDOT (average depth of target) was up 6.9% from the first half of the season. During that same span, his go-route percentage rose from 13.8% to 15.7%.
In short, he was continuing to run downfield, and Allen was continuing to test defenses deep, but those passes simply weren’t going Diggs’ way. Did he lose a step?
Percentage of points scored from the slot
- 2023: 25.8%
- 2022: 23.5%
- 2021: 17.8%
In Week 11, Joe Brady took over Buffalo’s offense as the offensive coordinator, linking him to most of this downward trending data. When asked about the star wide receiver’s production, Brady didn’t exactly put fantasy managers at ease:
“Stef Diggs does so much even when he doesn’t have the ball … He’s opening up windows for [WR] Khalil Shakir and [RB] James Cook … All he cares about is winning football games.”
The annual box score may look similar to years past, but all signs are pointing in the wrong direction heading into this offseason.
Diggs’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Diggs land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Diggs lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Tyreek Hill | MIA
3) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
4) Justin Jefferson | MIN
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI
10) Chris Olave | NO
11) Puka Nacua | LAR
12) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
13) Nico Collins | HOU
14) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) DJ Moore | CHI
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Drake London | ATL
19) Rome Odunze | CHI
20) Tee Higgins | CIN
21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) DeVonta Smith | PHI
23) Malik Nabers | NYG
24) Davante Adams | LV
25) Jayden Reed | GB
26) Terry McLaurin | WAS
27) Stefon Diggs | HOU
28) Cooper Kupp | LAR
29) Zay Flowers | BAL
30) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
31) Mike Evans | TB
32) Tank Dell | HOU
33) Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF
34) Calvin Ridley | TEN
35) Jordan Addison | MIN
36) Keenan Allen | CHI
37) George Pickens | PIT
38) Xavier Worthy | KC
39) Mike Williams | NYJ
40) Chris Godwin | TB
Should You Trade Diggs in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Diggs? Our PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trades to make in seconds!
The idea of trading for (or away) Diggs completely hinges on the perceived value of him in your league.
If there’s a manager out there who still thinks of him as a top-20 WR for the next few years, you look to leverage that.
I don’t doubt that Diggs will have his moments in 2024 and beyond, but the best-case scenario for the next season or two will be what we saw this season –- flashes of strong production, as opposed to a consistent difference-maker.
That said, if you play in a sharp league and the other manager feels burned by how Diggs finished this past season, there could be a buying point.
As you can see from my ranking, I’m not fully out of the Diggs business. He’s still a proven receiver in a productive offense that underwent a scheme change mid-season.
The age curve is obviously a concern, but it’s rare for a player to fall off a cliff the way Diggs did last season and never be heard from again, especially on a prove-it deal in an explosive offense.
At the right price, I’m willing to buy that hope, but these are scary times ahead for those with Diggs rostered and nowhere to turn.
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