NFL free agency fireworks are upon us, but signing players isn’t the only option for NFL teams. Less than an hour after Davante Adams signed with the Los Angeles Rams, the Seattle Seahawks found a trade partner to grant DK Metcalf’s request.
The talented WR joins the Pittsburgh Steelers in exchange for a second-round pick. He also will likely finish his relevant career there, as he signed a five-year, $50 million extension. Let’s examine the fantasy football impact of Metcalf joining the Steelers.
Fantasy Impact of DK Metcalf Being Traded to the Steelers
It’s not quite clear what the Seahawks are doing. It looks like they’re blowing it up, as evidenced by them cutting Tyler Lockett, trading Geno Smith, and now trading Metcalf. However, they’ve been linked to Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers, which suggests a team trying to win now.
Fortunately, we don’t need to worry about how the Seahawks are going to win games. We just need to concern ourselves with how Metcalf going to Pittsburgh impacts their players’ ability to score fantasy points.
We’ll start with Metcalf. Well… this one is tough. We know Metcalf is talented, so there’s no point in evaluating that aspect of his fantasy value. The next biggest factor in a wide receiver’s fantasy value is his quarterback. Currently, the Steelers don’t have one. That limits what we can project at this point. Therefore, all we can do is evaluate the situation based on what we know right now.
Metcalf is going to immediately step in as the team’s WR1. It’s the same role he played in Seattle, except the Steelers project to be a much more run-heavy offense. Their 49% neutral game script run rate was the fifth-highest in the league last season.
From a market-share standpoint, Metcalf should see substantial improvement on his 21.3% target share from last season. That should push more toward 25%. However, the total volume is likely to drop. Of course, that depends on who the Steelers end up with at quarterback.
If they bring back Justin Fields, Metcalf may be capped at 6-7 targets per game. If they sign Aaron Rodgers, he will likely see more than that. We just don’t know right now.
Either way, Metcalf hasn’t shown an ability to produce anywhere near WR1 numbers since his breakout sophomore season way back in 2020. Is the talent there? I think so. But after three straight seasons finishing between WR20 and WR24, he fell to WR30 last season, taking a back seat to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Now on a new team, Metcalf is likely going to be on the WR2/3 border.
George Pickens
The only other player immediately impacted by this trade is George Pickens. The incumbent WR1 for the Steelers is now the WR2.
This is a problem for Pickens. The Steelers are already a low-volume passing attack. We haven’t seen two fantasy-relevant WRs on the Steelers since Ben Roethlisberger retired.
While Metcalf is much heavier than Pickens, they are the same height and occupy a similar space. Essentially, Metcalf is a better, more polished version of Pickens.
DK Metcalf is a terrible fit next to George Pickens.
You have two overlapping skillsets.
With the Steelers likely prioritizing their shiny new toy, I'd bet on a down year from Pickens.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 9, 2025
Without Diontae Johnson last season, Pickens had all the targets to himself. He commanded an impressive 26.5% target share. Yet, that only amounted to 103 targets, 59 receptions, 900 yards, and three touchdowns. His 11.7 fantasy points per game was actually a slight drop from 2023. He finished as the overall WR35.
We will need to find out who will be throwing passes in Pittsburgh this year, but early indications are that Pickens is not someone I will be recommending fantasy managers target this season.
Steelers’ Ancillary Wide Receivers
Whether the Steelers will be able to sustain more than one fantasy-relevant WR depends on their QB. Regardless of who it is, there won’t be more than two.
Last season, Calvin Austin III established himself as the team’s WR2. He was more effective than either Mike Williams or Van Jefferson. He only averaged 7.0 fantasy points per game, but had games of 19.5, 20.4, and 16.8 fantasy points. There was at least desperation WR4 appeal. Now, that’s all but gone.
Beyond Austin, the Steelers’ WR4 probably isn’t currently on the team. There’s no reason for fantasy managers to draft any Steelers wide receivers beyond Metcalf and Pickens.