Our deep dive into each week’s predictions moves to Week 17 and a Sunday Night Football game featuring one of the best rivalries in the NFL between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens hope to get their former MVP quarterback back from injury, while Pittsburgh continues its fight for a Wild Card spot.
Let’s dive into the current NFL betting odds, key storylines, and game prediction. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Tuesday, December 27.
Steelers vs. Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -3 - Moneyline
Steelers +140, Ravens -166 - Over/Under
36 points
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
You’ll be hard-pressed to find a better rivalry than the one shared between the Black and Gold and Purple and Black. In years past, it’s these teams have regularly given as hard-nosed of a game as you could ask for, and generally, it’s decided by a field goal at most. This is pure hatred mixed with respect.
The difference this year is that rather than the Steelers and Ravens battling it out to see who will win the AFC North, the Ravens are trying to do something, perhaps even sweeter. A victory over the Steelers in Week 17 would break Mike Tomlin’s streak of consecutive seasons finishing above 500.
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2022 was viewed as a rebuilding season, but unless you’ve been a Steelers fan since the mid-90s, the struggles of 2022 are something many have yet to be accustomed to out of this franchise.
After missing two games due to a concussion, rookie Kenny Pickett returned last week for the Steelers. He helped deliver fans a Christmas Eve miracle thanks to a 14-yard touchdown pass to George Pickens with 46 seconds to go that secured a 13-to-10 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders. The game celebrated the 50th anniversary of the Immaculate Reception and paid respect to the late Franco Harris.
While that certainly will be a sweet feeling to carry for some time, it doesn’t take away some of the stings of this year. Pittsburgh sits 7-8 and in third place in the division. Scoring has been a problem, with the Steelers sitting 29th in points per game thanks to a lackluster passing attack that is 24th in yards and dead last in passing touchdowns at 10.
The weapons are certainly there with Diontae Johnson, Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. Still, there is a maturation period for a rookie quarterback, and the hope is Pickett can take those next steps over the offseason. It’s safe to say the jury remains out after an up-and-down first season for the QB.
The defense has helped keep Pittsburgh in games more so than they could have. Although 15th in points, the Steelers defense is fourth in DVOA while sitting 10th in passing and second in rush DVOA. Since Week 10 and thanks to a healthy T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh is also ninth in EPA per play, sixth in dropback success rate, and fifth in rush success rate as a defense.
The Ravens have likewise placed a ton of pressure on their defense over the last several weeks due to the absence of former MVP QB Lamar Jackson. After suffering a knee injury in Week 13, Jackson has not suited up or seen any notable reps during practice. Instead, backup Tyler Huntley has taken over in a not-so-dissimilar way to the end of last season, when Jackson missed the final four games.
During this year’s four games stretch, the Ravens are 3-1 with victories over the Denver Broncos, Atlanta Falcons, and Pittsburgh Steelers back in Week 14 in a close 16-14 game. But the offensive output has taken a noticeable hit.
Baltimore scored 20 or more points in nine of the 11 games Jackson started and finished but has yet to score over 17 without him. There has been a noticeable decrease in efficiency with All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews, and the need for a premier pass catcher means the Ravens are, once again, turning to their bread and butter of running more than virtually anyone else.
The returns of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have allowed the Ravens to lean on the rushing attack to chew the clock, as they know their defense won’t let a game get away from them.
Baltimore has one of the genuine standout units of 2022. They are second in EPA per play and DVOA only behind the San Francisco 49ers. Patrick Queen, Roquan Smith, Odafe Oweh, and Calais Campbell all can win matchups and generate pressure. This makes the jobs of defensive backs Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphry that much easier as the pass rush speeds up the QB’s internal clock and forces errant throws.
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If there is an area where one team has an advantage over the other, it’s in the Ravens’ ability to create pressure and their play on the perimeter. While the Steelers can get turnovers with Minkah Fitzpatrick, cornerbacks Cameron Sutton, Arthur Maulet, and Levi Wallace are far from a shutdown unit. CB will be one of the biggest areas of improvement during the offseason in Pittsburgh.
If the Steelers don’t turn the ball over and can find success with Najee Harris, they have a solid shot to walk away with a victory and move to .500 heading into the final week. However, the Steelers offensive line has been a liability all season, and Pickett will likely be running out of time before he goes through his progressions. It certainly won’t be a blowout, but the Ravens move into Week 18 with their 11th victory.
Steelers vs. Ravens Score Prediction
Ravens 20, Steelers 17